Author: Winslow

In the recent days, the Tesla car accident in Chaozhou has made it to the top of the hot search list. Here, we will not repeat the various analyses available online. However, friends who often read my articles should know that my writings usually revolve around enterprise value, so I would like to talk about the framework of problem analysis and welcome private messages for discussion.

First, looking at this accident itself.

It is estimated that the driver most likely did not lie. In the driver’s memory, he had been stepping on the “brake”, but what he thought was the “brake” was actually the accelerator, so the more he pressed, the faster, deeper, and harder he went. In addition, he tried to use the “P gear” to brake because he thought that there was a problem with the brake, but unfortunately, “short pressing the P gear” cannot brake (to prevent misoperation). Only “long pressing the P gear” will make an emergency brake.

Tesla definitely did not lie and would not lie either. Data in Tesla’s background showed that the driver did not step on the brake pedal during the entire course but had short pressed the P gear and had deeply stepped on the accelerator pedal for a long time.

Why do we say that Tesla definitely did not and would not lie? Because since this case is very serious, it will definitely enter the criminal process, and authoritative institutions will analyze the cause of the accident. If there is a problem, it is absolutely impossible to get away with it, and no organization or government would dare to implement anomalous intervention or cover up such a highly publicized incident.

Therefore, both parties have stated what they believe to be “the truth.”

Second, how to determine which party is telling the truth that cannot be distorted?

Since new things are always subject to skepticism, not only in China but also in the United States two years ago, this type of news would also come out. Just the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the United States has conducted N comprehensive independent inspections on Tesla, but the current inspection results have not found any problems.

In order to avoid misunderstanding and unclear facts, all Tesla models are equipped with a “black box” system – the Event Data Recorder (EDR), which is similar to the black box standard on airplanes. This system is provided by a third party, and the data generated locally by the vehicle is directly written in and can only be locally read, and no one can modify the data inside. The black box system will record all driving data before a vehicle collision, including braking, acceleration, steering, gears, speed, etc.

As EDR can restore the truth of the event, starting from January 1, 2022, the country has promulgated mandatory regulations that all new cars must be equipped with a “black box” before they can be sold. Tesla had already equipped EDR as a standard feature in all car models sold globally several years ago, and Tesla cannot distort the truth in any way.Therefore, the truth will be revealed as soon as the authoritative departments analyze the results of EDR and on-site comparison.

Thirdly, is it possible to avoid such incidents in the future?

Yes, but the required technological threshold is almost reaching the implementation of autonomous driving. The so-called misstepping on the accelerator is actually one of the common mistakes made by human drivers. It means that the human driver believes that he/she is stepping on the brake, but in fact, it is the accelerator. To avoid such incidents, the vehicle should “automatically” cut off the accelerator output (stop accelerating) and “automatically” press the brake (decelerate) and “automatically” control the steering wheel (avoid collisions) when necessary.

To achieve the three “automatics,” the vehicle needs to have higher autonomous control authorization than human drivers and make a judgment that “the human driver is making a wrong move.” The safest way to judge whether a person is doing something right or wrong in a specific matter is to be much better than him/her. Therefore, it basically requires the automatic driving ability of the vehicle to surpass that of humans, and it is not enough to only “surpass humans a little,” but it needs to “far exceed humans” (essentially due to human’s natural arrogance and irrationality).

Therefore, the required technological threshold is almost reaching the implementation of autonomous driving.

Below is a video of Tesla engineer Ashok demonstrating progress in anti-collision technology for autonomous driving, which has not yet been deployed on vehicles.

People are prone to emotional responses and following trends, which is also one of the human nature’s tendencies. I believe that entrepreneurship and value investment are a process of fighting against human nature, an art of seeing through the essence by removing the appearance, and a mutual encouragement. I look forward to the arrival of the truth as soon as possible.

The above mainly analyzed this problem by deduction, while the following is a commonly used method of analogy and induction. Be cautious about using the method of analogy, especially when the background of two things is not clear. But often, in analyzing non-major issues, the method of analogy is a good way to save time.The investigation report by NHTSA on Tesla’s acceleration loss of control covers 246 cases, all of which were caused by stepping on the wrong pedal. For the original report by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), please refer to this link: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2020/INCLA-DP20001-6158.PDF.

This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.