Special Contributor | Happy and Comfortable
Editor | Qiu Kaijun
A few days into 2023, the top 8 new forces and brands have announced their sales for 2022, and there are both winners and losers. Today, we will take a look at the sales situation of these 8 new forces and brands, and make a prediction for their 2023 sales.
Let’s start with the conclusion: The total sales of the top 8 new forces and brands in 2023 are expected to be approximately 1.49 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.30%, and are highly likely to keep pace with the market.
December Delivery Situation of 8 New Forces
Aiways: 30,007 units sold in December, up 4.31% MoM and up 79.95% YoY; total sales for the year were 272,296 units, up 121.14% YoY.
Li Xiang: 21,223 units sold in December, up 41.23% MoM and up 50.73% YoY; total sales for the year were 133,245 units, up 47.25% YoY.
NIO: 15,815 units sold in December, up 11.55% MoM and up 50.82% YoY; total sales for the year were 122,486 units, up 33.97% YoY.
Xpeng: 11,337 units sold in December, up 2.96% MoM and up 198.7% YoY; total deliveries for the year were 71,941 units, up 1286.35% YoY.
Xiaopeng: 11,292 units sold in December, up 94.32% MoM and down 29.43% YoY; total sales for the year were 120,757 units, up 22.99% YoY.
Weimar: 10,143 units sold in December, up 22.80% MoM; total deliveries for the year were 78,037 units.
Lixiang: 8,493 units sold in December, up 5.54% MoM and up 8.79% YoY; total sales for the year were 111,168 units, up 74.11% YoY.
Neta: 7,795 units sold in December, down 48.28% MoM and down 23.03% YoY; total sales for the year were 152,073 units, up 118.26% YoY.BYD remains the only new force to break through 30,000 vehicle sales, ranking first. With an annual cumulative sales of over 270,000 vehicles, it became the first new brand to exceed 270,000 vehicles sold in a year. It is also the only new brand with annual sales of over 200,000 vehicles. However, based on the difference between reported sales and insured vehicles, BYD dealers have at least two months of inventory on hand.
The seating order of the top three new forces, Xiaopeng, Weilai, and Li Auto, has undergone significant changes. Xiaopeng, Weilai, and Li Auto in 2021 became Li Auto, Weilai, and Xiaopeng in 2022. Xiaopeng has started to fall behind, with a negative year-on-year growth in December. Note that all brands were ramping up their sales in December!
The performance of two “dark horses” at the beginning of the year, Nezha and Leap Motor, failed to keep up with Q4.
In December, Nezha only sold 7795 units, and Leap Motor’s sales were 8493 units. The two brands were the only new forces in December that did not achieve monthly sales of over ten thousand vehicles.They performed especially poorly in December, with both experiencing year-on-year and month-on-month declines.
Jike’s performance was low at first and high later, and by promoting a wave of “free upgrades to 8155,” it greatly improved the brand’s reputation and achieved monthly sales of over ten thousand units for three consecutive months.
Wenjie is undoubtedly the big surprise of 2022. With Huawei’s support, the brand emerged brilliantly. In its first year on the market, it relied primarily on Salis’s old models to launch the new Wenjie M5, M7, and M5E, achieving first-year sales of 78,037 vehicles, which can be called a “legendary performance” for a new brand.
Performance Forecast for Next Year
Looking at the sales trends of passenger cars in each quarter over the years, Q4 is always the time with the highest sales volume, averaging about 28% of the annual sales volume. Next is Q1, which accounts for approximately 25% of the annual sales volume, and Q2 and Q3 together account for approximately 23.5% of the annual sales volume.
For new energy passenger cars, the overall proportion of Q4 sales will be significantly higher than the overall market due to the subsidy reductions in 2019 (“630”), 2021 (“1231”), and 2022 (“1231”). Looking at the data from 2018 to 2022, new energy in Q4 accounts for about 32%, Q3 accounts for about 28%, Q2 accounts for about 21%, and Q1 accounts for about 19%, the lowest of the four.
We’ll use this data as a yardstick to take a look at the specific performance of the eight automakers:
- Aiways: Q4 sales of 88,835 units, accounting for 32.62% of the annual sales, which is basically consistent with the overall market trend. We can also see from the trend chart of the past three months that Aiways’ sales are relatively stable. The year-on-year growth rate of annual sales is 121.14%, exceeding the average market growth rate of 100%. It is also one of the few new brands that have achieved their sales targets this year.
Forecast for 2023: Aiways’ biggest problem is that there is no continuous new car investment in the 200,000-300,000 price range, which will greatly affect Aiways’ sales expectations for next year. It is tentatively estimated that Aiways’ sales in 2023 will be approximately 300,000 units.
- Li Auto: Q4 sales of 46,319 units, accounting for 34.76% of annual sales, which is better than the overall market performance. We can also see from the sales trend in the past three months that the trend of steadily increasing by 5,000 units per month is on the rise. The year-on-year growth rate of annual sales is 47.25%, which is significantly lower than the average market growth rate (but better than the overall market performance of the 300,000-500,000 price range). The goal of 150,000 units at the beginning of the year has not been achieved.
Forecast for 2023: The L7 will be launched in February and is expected to be delivered in March. The target market is the market for X3, Q5, and GLC, which are currently the mainstay of BBA (we can anticipate the degree of decline in the sales of these three cars by BBA next year). It is tentatively estimated that Li Auto’s sales in 2023 will be approximately 240,000 units, and it will also be the first new force to break through the 200,000 annual sales mark among the top three brands.
Nio: Q4 sales of 40,883 units, accounting for 26.88% of annual sales, indicating that Nio’s performance in Q4 was lower than the overall market. We can see from the sales trend chart in the past three months that the monthly sales volume is continuing to decline. The year-on-year growth rate of annual sales is 118.26%, exceeding the average market growth rate. With the excellent performance in the first half of the year, the annual target has just been achieved.### 2023 Sales Prediction:
Tesla: Model 3 and Sea Lion, both selling over ten thousand units per month, will put pressure on Nezha S in a relatively fierce competitive environment, while the Zero Run C01 and Deep Blue SL03 will follow closely from behind. The new car launched next year will be a new 2-door coupe, slightly niche. Preliminary prediction of Nezha’s sales in 2023 is about 180,000 units.
NIO: The Q4 sales volume was 40,052 units, accounting for 32.7% of the annual sales volume, which basically meets the overall market demand. It can also be seen from the recent trend of monthly sales that the NIO’s monthly sales volume is gradually increasing. The annual sales volume year-on-year increased by 33.97%, which performs significantly lower than the market’s average growth rate (but better than the overall market performance of the 300,000-500,000 RMB price range). The goal of selling 150,000 vehicles at the beginning of the year was not achieved.
Preliminary prediction of NIO’s sales in 2023 is about 200,000 units, and it will also be the second brand among the top three new forces to break through the annual sales of 200,000 units.
Xpeng: Q4 sales of 32,467 units accounted for 38.99% of the annual sales volume, which performed better than the overall market. From the recent trend of monthly sales, the monthly sales volume of Xpeng is steadily increasing. The annual sales volume year-on-year has increased by 1097%, but it is not comparable since Xpeng only began delivery in Q4 of 2021. Xpeng successfully achieved its annual goal of 70,000 units.
Preliminary prediction of Xpeng’s sales in 2023 is about 150,000 units.
WM Motor: Q4 sales of 30,421 units accounted for 38.98% of the annual sales volume, performing better than the overall market. From the recent trend of monthly sales volume, the problems with WM Motor’s production have yet to be fully resolved. The goal of selling 100,000 units per year was not achieved.
The current M7 model still has shortcomings in terms of product strength, but the M9, which is under development, will be launched. Preliminary prediction of WM Motor (Hozon) for 2023 is about 150,000 units.
Jidu Auto: Q4 sales of 32,467 units accounted for 38.99% of the annual sales volume, performing better than the overall market. From the recent trend of monthly sales volume, Jidu Auto’s monthly sales are steadily increasing. The annual sales volume year-on-year has increased by 1097%, but it is not comparable since Jidu Auto only began delivery in Q4 of 2021. Jidu Auto has successfully achieved its annual goal of 70,000 units.
Preliminary prediction of Jidu Auto’s sales in 2023 is about 150,000 units. MPV Jidu 009 and A-class SUV models will be launched and there will be an upgraded version of Jidu 001.### 7、Lynk & Co:
- Q4 sales: 23,566 units, accounting for 21.20% of annual sales. The performance fell far behind the market, and the sales sustainability is worrying. Looking at the sales of the last 3 months, the monthly sales increased slightly but were significantly lower than Q3. The annual sales increased by 147.56% compared to the same period last year, exceeding the market average growth rate. However, the annual sales target of 120,000 units was not achieved.
2023 forecast: Lynk & Co will introduce a new extended-range version of the vehicle. However, the 1.2T three-cylinder Dong’An engine is indeed a hidden worry. The preliminary forecast for Lynk & Co’s sales in 2023 is about 120,000 units.
- Q4 sales: 22,204 units, accounting for 18.39% of annual sales. The performance fell behind the market, especially G9, which cannot be regarded as the “backbone” of the brand’s sales. Looking at the sales of the last 3 months, the monthly sales decline trend is obvious. The annual sales growth rate is 22.99%, which is significantly lower than the market average growth rate. Especially, as the brand with the lowest average unit price among the leading new forces, such sales performance is slightly disappointing. The annual sales target of 200,000 units was not achieved.
2023 forecast: The main sales models next year will be the G9 and P7 facelift. Currently, G9 cannot bear the heavy responsibility, and P7 facelift faces further squeeze from Tesla Model 3’s further price reduction and the fermentation of Heipao’s reputation. The preliminary forecast for XPeng’s sales in 2023 is about 150,000 units.
In 2022, the combined sales of the above 8 leading new forces totaled 1.062 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 102.74%, slightly higher than the market average growth rate of 2 pct. This is mainly due to the delivery growth of Xpeng and Weltmeister. However, the three new forces represented by NIO, Li Auto, and WM Motor “lag behind the overall market.”
These eight leading new forces increased their sales by 538,000 units in 2022 compared with 2021, accounting for 20% of the net increase in new energy vehicle sales throughout the year!
Referring to the above forecast, the total sales of the eight leading new forces’ new brands in 2023 are expected to be about 1.49 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40.30%, and are likely to basically keep pace with the market’s overall growth rate!# Markdown 中文文本
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