Q4 2022: Brief review of Tesla's production/delivery volume.

Global Delivery Overview

In Q4 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 405,278 vehicles worldwide, representing a 31% increase compared to 308,600 vehicles delivered in Q4 2021, and an 18% increase compared to 343,830 delivered in Q3 2022.


In 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 1,313,851 vehicles worldwide, representing a 40.3% increase compared to 936,172 vehicles delivered in 2021.


China Delivery Overview

“Strategic Penetration Rate” refers to the proportion of Tesla’s new vehicles delivered compared to the total car sales in China (solid line represents actual data, dotted line represents model data).


In an unusual move, Tesla chose to peak its deliveries in the second month of Q4 2022, whether due to macro-environmental factors (including the pandemic) or intentional, whereas in previous quarters, deliveries peaked in the last month. This arrangement should help avoid the joint promotional sales at the end of the year by all automotive manufacturers that may cause a decline in the average selling price (ASP) and also logistics resource shortages that may result in excessive delivery costs.”Tactical Penetration Rate” refers to the percentage of new Tesla cars sold in China compared to the total sales of new energy vehicles (NEV).

Tesla’s performance in the NEV market this year is weaker than the overall market mainly due to the issue in the price range of their car models. More details can be found in: Tesla’s Market Share in China’s Market

Global Production Update

The dark-colored bars are actual verified data while the light-colored bars are model data.

Tesla’s global production data for Q4 2022 was average.

With the production line upgrade in the Shanghai Super Factory, the production target of almost 1.2 million cars per year can be achieved. However, it is currently unclear whether macroeconomic issues, cost control, or insufficient demand are responsible for the temporary slowdown in production in December. This point warrants further attention.The climbing speed of production capacity at the Texas Gigafactory and the Berlin Gigafactory is unbelievably fast. It can be concluded that these two Gigafactories will be “purely burning money” for most of 2022.

The Fremont factory performed similarly to previous years, with the biggest contribution being the production of approximately 5% of the total annual delivery of Model S/X, which boosted the fleet’s profit margin and ASP.

A revised unofficial production capacity forecast for 2023 shows that the Fremont factory will reach 540,000 units, the Shanghai Gigafactory will reach 1.06 million units, the Texas Gigafactory will reach 200,000 units, and the Berlin Gigafactory will reach 200,000 units, for a total of 2 million units.

The Q4 2022 earnings call comment will be released after the quarter earnings call on January 25, 2023.

In the new year, the 2023 Tesla Annual Report will be released on March 1, 2023, after the Tesla annual conference. Last year, an actual 2022 Tesla Annual Report was also made, but it was only circulated privately among individuals and institutions. This year, the theme around “let ideas win” is being considered, in which breaking and combining is innovation, and broad communication is the core. Let us all come together to communicate and collide.

This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.