The Fourth Global Future Mobility Conference: Connecting Urban Future through Mobility Technology
The Fourth Global Future Mobility Conference was held on October 29-30, 2020 at the Deqing International Conference Center, with participation not only from domestic and international well-known OEM executives, but also from experts, scholars, and government representatives in the automotive industry. The theme of the conference focused on “Connecting Urban Future through Mobility Technology”.
China’s Characteristic – “Big”
Talking about the application of intelligent transportation infrastructure, we have to mention China’s biggest characteristic in the international field of intelligent transportation, which is “big”. We cannot say whether our technology is leading or not, that’s hard to evaluate. However, as Chairman Dong Yang said earlier, one of China’s characteristics is “big”, our non-stop toll collection system is now the world’s largest single system with over 200 million users, covering 140,000 kilometers of highways. Our ride-hailing service is also the largest single system in the world. Another system that was fully demonstrated during the pandemic this year is intelligent logistics, which supported the daily lives and production of our people in China.
“Planning Outline” is the Top-level Design and Vision Planning
From last year to this year, China has released a series of policies, especially when the National Development and Reform Commission proposed the content of intelligent transportation infrastructure under integrated development as a part of new infrastructure this year. Let’s take a look at the content related to intelligent transportation. Firstly, there is the “Building a Strong Transportation Nation Planning Outline” (hereinafter referred to as “Planning Outline”) released last year. From the perspective of an expert, I think this planning outline is the top-level design and vision planning for the future, outlining China’s modernization goals and paths for transportation construction over the next 15-30 years. I believe this should be the fundamental requirement for our next development, as it was jointly issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, and is a comprehensive document that includes the opinions of experts from all aspects of China after multiple discussions and consultations. Of course, the content of the “Planning Outline” covers all aspects of transportation, closely related to future travel and intelligent connected vehicles which we discussed today. Other documents, no matter how many departments jointly issue them, must follow the requirements and planning of the “Planning Outline”.
Building green and intelligent transportation has become one of the main goals of future transportation development. According to the “Building a Strong Transportation Nation Planning Outline”, this content has been set as one of the goals for 2035 and the middle of this century, and the “Planning Outline” has made arrangements for every aspect of the intelligent transportation system, although it does not mention intelligent transportation system directly. However, every aspect is involved when we look carefully at the framework of the intelligent transportation system.The “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Construction of New Infrastructure in the Transportation Sector” (hereinafter referred to as “Opinions”) was recently released by the Ministry of Transport, which basically follows the National Development and Reform Commission’s layout for the new infrastructure in the transportation sector, but with extremely careful wording. The first point is to build an intelligent transportation infrastructure. However, when it comes to the information technology field, the “Opinions” propose to support the construction of information infrastructure, emphasizing “support” rather than taking on the main responsibility.
Development and Reduction of Environmental Impact, Considering Balanced and Coordinated Development
Earlier, we talked about policies, and now let’s have some discussions. I believe that regardless of the development of intelligent transportation and intelligent connected vehicles or future travel, as a society, balanced development must always be considered, rather than single-mindedness. Currently, the theme of our country’s economy and transportation is “development and reduction of environmental impact.” Our current infrastructure is designed according to transportation engineering and ergonomics, while cars are designed according to anthropometry and ergonomics, with chemical energy as the main source of energy. This is the basis for our current development. Then, what will the future cars and future transport vehicles, future infrastructure be like? “Vehicles should move towards new energy, interconnectivity, and autonomous driving; new infrastructure and new generation information technology should be applied.” However, in this development, “balanced and coordinated development” must be considered, taking into account both the current stage of realization and the connection with the future.
I noticed that the General Secretary put forward guidance and demand guidance in the previous stage of the scientific researcher symposium, and long-term layout is required for strategic and fundamental research. What is long-term layout? It actually means not to be used immediately within the next five or ten years. Currently, we must consider economic issues. From the perspective of transportation itself, we cannot just talk about transport vehicles or infrastructure alone. Just as our leaders of the Department of Transportation said, why must a city be led by public transportation? This is because it cannot be divorced from the mission and goals of transportation and technology. “The safe and efficient movement of people and goods is our transportation mission and goal,” which is clearly stated in the United Nations’ sustainable transportation development document. “Sustainable transportation must be safe, easy to use, efficient, and flexible.”
“Flexibility” has many meanings, and here, it does not refer to price elasticity in economics but rather system elasticity, which is mentioned in the “Outline for the Construction of a Strong Transportation Country.” At the same time, sustainable transportation also requires low-carbon emissions. “My point of view is that any technological innovation should support the realization of the mission and goals of transportation and support the realization of a better life.” This is the issue we need to consider now.With the support of the National Development and Reform Commission, my team and I worked on a project recently and even wrote a book, “Low-Carbon Transport Development Strategy”. Through our research, we believe that the future development of transportation should focus on:
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Comprehensive transportation support;
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Intelligent transportation infrastructure.
This proposal was not just something we recently came up with, we actually proposed it during our research. When the National Development and Reform Commission sought input on new infrastructure projects this year, I proposed the idea of intelligent transportation infrastructure which was adopted. Other important aspects include environmentally friendly and intelligent transportation vehicles, open, shared and coordinated service and management systems, and intelligent decision-making systems based on data. Our research results were submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission.
Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure
This includes intelligent road infrastructure, which encompasses urban and highway roads, as part of new infrastructure projects.
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Digitization and network support infrastructure;
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Multi-objective distributed transportation intelligent operation control platform.
We did not mention big data and cloud platforms specifically, because new technology terminology may arise in the future. These fields are not just specific to the transportation industry, but are applicable to infrastructure projects across society.
In this context, we envisioned the future of transportation. We created an image that included highways, railways, waterways, civil aviation, urban transportation, and new technologies such as intelligent connected vehicles and 5G in one landscape, showing where they all fit. This image not only describes the future, but more importantly, shows that the new system must be comprehensive. However, Rome was not built in a day, and this image may take 20, 30, or even 40 years to implement. As technology continues to advance, we will choose the most appropriate breakthrough points and timing to build an appropriate system, considering economic and social development, rather than only focusing on single technological advancements.The topic we discussed today is mainly about autonomous driving, intelligent driving, intelligent connected vehicles, and 5G technology. However, for users, what kind of vehicles and systems are the simplest for them? If we make the system very complex, is its controllability and availability guaranteed? Is its cost controllable? As a driver and a road user, should I choose vehicles and systems with clearly defined legal boundaries? In our discussions and research, we have pointed out that intelligent connected vehicles have inherent deficiencies, namely unclear legal boundaries. When giving feedback and consulting opinions to the Ministry of Transport, we suggested that we cannot turn the side of the road into the future responsibility of driving. Furthermore, today the prices of integrated circuits, chips, and components are rapidly decreasing. If intelligent vehicles become consumer goods, why do we have to make them rely on roadside facilities? Many people in China advocate for a system in which road-side and vehicle-mounted facilities are integrated, arguing that our path is different from that of the United States and Europe. I think this issue is worth discussing, especially for experts. However, we are not the ones who make national policies. Through our research, we believe that the smart vehicle industry chain has nothing to do with road infrastructure, and that “we must form a closed-loop industry for the industry to thrive. If we bring road testing into the equation, the future of this industry would be quite difficult.”
Under what conditions is broadband communication necessary for intelligent vehicles or autonomous driving?
Tesla provides us with a good example of single-car intelligence, and it is also selling well. If we want to achieve breakthroughs or choose different technology routes, have we considered the complexity of the technology and economic feasibility? Therefore, we need to evaluate and study the cost and legal issues of using communication technology to improve the safety of autonomous driving or intelligent vehicles, and this must be raised.We have more dealings with the transportation industry. During our research, we conducted surveys and received many questions. Especially today, when the MIIT requires the transportation industry to build roadside facilities, who is responsible for constructing the wireless communication system for intelligent vehicles or autonomous driving? This is a commercial problem, not a policy problem. Who is responsible, and what is the business model? No one answered. Many departments now require the Ministry of Transport to organize this construction. However, the current investment policy cannot be realized. Also, what level of wireless communication is necessary to ensure the basic functions of transportation? Why do we have to use 5G? Can’t we use 4G? Last year, when I went to Europe for an investigation, I saw their vehicle-road coordination system. They used 4G instead of 5G, and many people were using it. Japan’s ETC2.0 uses the existing communication mode as the basis for developing vehicle-road coordination, which already has 7 million users. They are taking the low-cost expansion approach – using it first and then developing 5G and other advanced technology. In my opinion, the future of travel services and freight should be the service sector that the next generation of mobile broadband focuses on. We should aim at the next generation and not forcefully impose what today’s 4G and hybrid communication technology can accomplish on 5G. Many of the scenarios designed for 5G are outdated because intelligent transportation (ITS) has already been developed and offered services. Faced with the development and rapid iteration of 4G, 5G, and even 6G in the future, our transportation industry does not know what to do. I think we should wait until we have a relatively good policy and see because this is an economic issue.
For autonomous driving of commercial vehicles in dedicated lanes, we agree with Director Meng’s view that public transportation should still be the main mode of daily travel in large Chinese cities. According to recently released statistics in Beijing, the total number of workday travels in the central urban area is 39.75 million. It is not feasible to support this with intelligent cars. The proportion of green travel in Beijing is 74.1%, including walking, public transportation, bicycles, and taxis, which account for a considerable proportion. Beijing has 117,000 public bicycles, which is a good thing and solves the last-mile problem.
New types of travel are only supplementary, in my opinion.
First, customized buses are a supplement to commuting transportation. I don’t think shared cars can succeed in China (China’s ride-hailing services cannot be considered as shared transport); it needs further development.
Second, micro-travel is a term used by the Americans, including skateboards, mini-cars, etc. Their use and development in China are yet to be discussed because skateboards currently do not have road rights, and China does not advocate their development. The development of Chinese cities with large populations cannot be the same as that of sparse cities in Europe and the US.- Thirdly, safety-assist driving (below L3) can already be a standard feature of vehicles, but its effect on alleviating traffic congestion is limited, mainly to solve safety issues.
- Fourthly, highly automated driving will not become the main mode of transportation in the near future, which is a basic judgment. For example, the Robotaxi currently being developed still needs to be tested to see if it is truly practical. In addition, we are waiting for the emergence of new models and further research.
Recently, the Highway Research Institute and the China Intelligent Transportation Industry Alliance conducted specialized research on the intelligence of operating vehicles in China with the support of the Ministry of Transport, because this is a breakthrough point for intelligent vehicles. For example, in dedicated lines and areas, autonomous driving may develop faster. Examples include ports and bus lanes. This report has been reviewed and will be released soon. We believe that intelligent driving and assisted driving for operating vehicles are being deployed rapidly, and autonomous driving for commercial operations in limited areas will soon be realized. This requires dedicated roads, not public roads, but unmanned vehicles still have a long way to go to become consumer goods. Currently, transportation departments and transportation companies mainly focus on the operation status of vehicles and the behavior of drivers. We have classified related functions into control, service, and management categories. Actually, 4G is enough for service and management categories, and 5G may only be required for safety-related requirements and demanding areas. We have conducted a detailed analysis of this. Therefore, we have set a long-term evolution for intelligent commercial vehicles, which is divided into stages rather than following the SAE’s L1, L2, and so on, but based on development stages.
The intelligent evolution chart of operating buses involves several stages, 2025, 2030, and 2035, and it will not be possible to use them on highways until 2030 or 2035. Of course, when we discussed this issue, many car companies told us that we are being pessimistic. We believe that this should be viewed from a realistic perspective, and this is only for research purposes. There are similar issues for operating trucks, which are also being considered for the years 2025, 2030, and 2035.
Finally,
The new generation of intelligent transportation and intelligent transportation infrastructure are important construction content to improve our country’s transportation safety and service level and are included in the new infrastructure. Sustainable development requires us to consider the future development of travel with a broader vision, and future traffic needs to coordinate with social and economic development. The ratio of benefits and costs is an important factor. Intelligent roads and intelligent operating vehicles will be important development areas in the next five years, and there is still a long way to go for unmanned vehicles to become consumer goods.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.