Author: James Yang Jianwen
As media dedicated to covering ET7, we are especially looking forward to the news from this year’s NIO Day.
Every year, NIO Day is the highlight of NIO’s year. It not only summarizes the hard work of the entire year, but also serves as a yearly user carnival and an opportunity to unveil the vision and expectations for the upcoming year.
With only two days left until NIO Day, it’s worth making a prediction: What can we expect besides the ET5?
Suspense one: Several new vehicles?
In their announcement, NIO mentioned that this is a brand-new vehicle. NIO’s Senior Director of Corporate Communications, Ma Lin, went one step further and revealed that it’s a sedan.
Essentially, there is no need to guess further; it’s most likely the ET5. Of course, the ET7, which was released at the beginning of the year, will likely make an appearance too. As for the time of delivery, I suspect it will start in February of next year.
Besides these two models, the biggest expectation is whether the third new vehicle will be unveiled.
During this year’s Q2 earnings conference, Li Bin stated: “Our goal is to launch three new products based on the NIO technology 2.0 platform in 2022.”
“We will announce the other two new vehicles at the appropriate time. One will be priced slightly lower than all current products and will be the lowest-priced model in the NIO brand.”
This brings us to another topic: will a new brand be announced at NIO Day?
Suspense two: Will a new brand be unveiled?
In this year’s Q2 earnings conference, Li Bin stated that NIO will enter the mass market through a new brand. Iron Art Cheng, the former CEO of WeWork’s China division, has been appointed as Vice President of NIO’s new strategic mission, where he will report directly to Li Bin and manage this independent, mid-to-low-end brand.
Li Bin stated that the relationship between the new brand and NIO brand is similar to that of Audi-Volkswagen or Lexus-Toyota. “Our new brand will not enter the micro-market of Wuling Hongguang. We hope to offer better products and services at a lower price than Tesla.”
Let’s take a look at Tesla: in November, Tesla’s wholesale sales exceeded 50,000 vehicles once again, breaking through the monthly sales of 50,000 for three consecutive months. As of November, Tesla’s Shanghai Super Factory had delivered more than 400,000 vehicles in 2021.
NIO wants to compete with Tesla head-on with this new brand, which is very exciting to think about.
A bigger market, higher sales, and more profits… these are all the possibilities that the new brand brings to NIO.
Due to the strong correlation between the new brand and new models, I have a speculation:
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Li Bin should reveal some information about the new brand, such as positioning, product planning, and delivery time, during NIO Day with such a large audience.
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At the press conference, only the two new cars, ET7 and ET5, may appear, and the third car may only be presented in the demonstration PPT.
Suspense Three: ET5
We’ll dedicate a chapter to ET5.
This is an official animated GIF of the ET5 taillight.
From this taillight, there are still some shades of the ET7, but with some minor differences in details.
And a few days ago, someone got hold of spy photos of the ET5 on the road.
From this body shape, it is basically a mid-size car, slightly larger than the Model 3.
Here’s a speculation: the starting price of the ET5 will be higher than that of the Model 3 and the XPeng P7. The starting price is most likely to be similar to that of the domestic Model 3 high-performance version.“`markdown
When it comes to performance, Li Bin once said, “There will never be a single-motor car.” So ET5 with dual motors will definitely be standard equipment.
In terms of specific parameters, the maximum output power of ET7 is 480 kW, and the maximum torque is 850 Nm. There will be a slight gap in performance between ET5 and ET7.
However, according to the new forces’ consistent technology strategy, the silicon carbide technology used in ET7 should also be reused in ET5.
Likewise, ET5 should also support 150 kWh solid-state batteries that are rechargeable, exchangeable, and upgradable.
In terms of intelligence, the intelligent driving hardware should be no different from that of ET7, and the intelligent cockpit should have the 8155 chip installed.
Suspense Four: Will ET7 switch to the 8155 chip?
This is also a point worth paying attention to. When it was released earlier this year, ET7 announced that it would be equipped with the third-generation Qualcomm Snapdragon Automotive Digital Cockpit Platform, also known as the 820A. Back then, there was still no fourth-generation cockpit platform (8155 chip).
But in the second half of this year, the 8155 chip has been implemented in many models.
As delivery is about to commence, will ET7 switch to the latest 8155 chip?
I think it will. Even if the chip is 820A during delivery, NIO will launch corresponding upgrade plans later.
Suspense Five: Will ES8, ES6, and EC6 have facelifts?
To address this issue, we must first look at NIO’s existing product lineup:
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ES6: released in December 2018
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New ES8: released in December 2019
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EC6: released in December 2019
As NIO co-founder and president Qin Lihong said, some parameter configurations of the models born from NIO’s first-generation platform may not be as advanced in today’s new energy vehicle market.
So model upgrades should be imminent.
However, considering what Li Bin said in the third-quarter financial report this year: all models currently sold will gradually upgrade to the NT2.0 platform. At this point, it is not necessary to release major facelifts.
Moreover, in terms of product competitiveness, NIO’s current models are still top-notch.
“`The upgrade scale of ES8, ES6, and EC6 next year is expected to be small, such as using 8155 for cabin chips and supporting 5G, etc.
At a communication meeting a few days ago, Qin Lihong stated that NIO will communicate face-to-face with users next year about the intelligent hardware-related upgrade work of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models, that is, the paid upgrade of 5G in-car systems.
I see it as a signal that NIO will launch a minor facelift next year: filling product shortboards and allowing old users to continue to enjoy the technological dividend.
Suspense 6: NAD! NAD! NAD!
Important things need to be said three times.
As one of the bastions of new forces, intelligent driving is an existence that cannot be ignored.
At the NIO Day at the beginning of the year, NIO released NAD. With a supercomputing platform that exceeds 1000 TOPS, it opened a year of “involuted computing power” in the industry.
At the same time, NIO also directly pulled the intelligent driving sensor configuration to the top: 11 800-megapixel HD cameras, 1 ultra-long-range high-precision lidar (from Innovusion invested by NIO Capital), 5 millimeter-wave radars, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 2 high-precision positioning units, 1 set of V2X equipment, and an enhanced main driver perception.
This means that NIO wants to break away from Mobileye’s embrace and start its own full-stack research and development.
About the progress of NAD, NIO keeps it secret and has done a very good job of confidentiality, but also arouses public curiosity.
Moreover, traditional giants are coming fiercely. Honda and Mercedes-Benz have successively launched true L3 autonomous driving, using their actions to impact the bastions of new forces, which puts pressure on the new forces instantly.
After nearly a year of brewing, it is time for NIO to give everyone an “account”.
Two guesses:
First, at this press conference, NIO will disclose more information about city navigation assistance driving and the time to market (probably in the second half of next year);
Second, a hands-off function on the expressway will be added to the navigation assist (the positioning is still assistive driving, and the person is the responsible subject).
Suspense 7: Will the 150kWh semi-solid-state battery be put into production early?
Solid-state batteries are also a very important point to pay attention to.You see, industry giants including BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, Stellantis, Nissan, and Ford have started to lay out a plan for solid-state batteries:
- BMW: Will introduce a prototype car in 2025 and apply the technology to mass production cars before 2030.
- Volkswagen: Will start using solid-state batteries in 2025.
- Toyota: Will begin selling cars equipped with solid-state batteries around 2025.
- Nissan: Will launch an electric vehicle equipped with all-solid-state batteries (ASSB) in FY 2028 and prepare a trial production factory in Yokohama as early as FY 2024.
- Stellantis: Will introduce solid-state battery technology in 2026.
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Most automotive companies will land a deployment time around 2025.
NIO, on the other hand, plans to deliver its own semi-solid state batteries in Q4 2022, cutting down the delivery time by 2-3 years.
Although the technology is challenging, it brings huge benefits. With the semi-solid state battery, NIO can raise the battery capacity to 150kWh (currently the highest NIO battery capacity is 100kWh), which greatly improves the vehicle’s range:
The ET7 model equipped with this battery has a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
If NIO can truly achieve mass production of solid-state batteries ahead of schedule, they will take the lead in the new energy competition.
Therefore, NIO’s progress in solid-state battery technology is also worth watching.
However, I personally don’t think the deployment time will be advanced.
At the beginning of the year, NIO’s response was to deliver semi-solid state batteries in Q4 2022, and their response was still the same in this year’s Q3 report.
Considering the difficulty of developing solid-state battery technology, there might not be much room for compressing the deployment timeline.
However, at this year’s NIO Day, NIO is expected to announce their commercial model related to solid-state batteries (which may have a lot to do with the flexible battery swap announced this month).
Suspense 8: Will the third-generation battery swapping station emerge?Let’s cut to the chase. I don’t think it will happen.
At the beginning of this year, the second-generation battery swap station was launched and had been in full swing for less than a year.
Considering the research and development and iteration of new technology, as well as the investment of time and cost, the third-generation swap station is unlikely to come out so soon (although it is certainly in development).
However, NIO will probably release its battery swapping plan for next year on the same day.
Suspense 9: Will Car Owners’ Rights and Interests Be Further Narrowed or Expanded?
This is also a concern of users.
In 2022, further subsidies will undoubtedly slide.
In December of this year, to cope with the decline in subsidies, domestic Tesla has already increased its prices, and XPeng’s rights and interests have also been narrowed.
From the current point of view, NIO shouldn’t make too many adjustments in this aspect. After all, this is also one of the ways for NIO to attract new users.
Suspense 10: Will Alan Walker perform “Faded” live?
Finally, we will talk about a more lighthearted topic.
Just today, NIO announced the identity of the mysterious guest who will appear at NIO Day: Alan Walker.
At the same time, Alan Walker will also bring a brand new single “Hello Word” written for NIO.
Generally, guests will perform three to four songs on-site, of which “Hello World” will be one.
Let’s add one more thing: Will Alan Walker bring the song “Faded”?
I bet two coins: he definitely will 🙂
Disclaimer: The speculation above is James Yang Jianwen’s speculation. Any similarity is purely coincidental. (Manual dog’s head)
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.