Yesterday, Tesla released its Q4 and 2020 delivery and production report. In Q4, 180,570 vehicles were delivered, setting a new quarterly record and representing a 30% increase from the previous quarter. In 2020, 499,550 vehicles were delivered, a 36% increase from the previous year and just 450 vehicles short of 500,000. In this article, we will explore this data by quarter and region, and analyze the growth potential for 2021 in the competitive landscape.
Discussion of Delivery Data
From the overall data, Tesla has already achieved penetration from high-end to mid-range consumers. Interest in the Model S sedan and Model X SUV has decreased, with 18,920 vehicles delivered (8%) in Q4 and 57,039 vehicles delivered (10%) in the whole year. Model 3 and Model Y reached nearly 162,000 deliveries in Q4, and a total of 442,511 deliveries for the year. By quarter, to achieve the annual target of 500,000 deliveries, Q3 (139,000) and Q4 (181,000) achieved rapid growth.
Particularly in Q4, Tesla delivered a total of 162,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. According to EV Sales Blog’s data, Tesla delivered 91,850 vehicles in December, with Model 3 and Model Y estimated at 39,335 and 11,481 respectively. This means that in December, Tesla sold 77,388 units of these two models, which may be further broken down into 61,910 and 15,478 units. These are impressive numbers.
Where were these cars sold? We will analyze this by region, based on sales data. The following data is estimated for December:
Europe: Model 3 sold 63,086 units from January to November. Due to the increase in deliveries, it is estimated that at least 20,000 units will be sold in December, totaling 83,000 units, accounting for 22%.2. China: From January to November, Model 3 sold 116,119 units, with an estimated delivery of 25,000 units in December. The total sales volume for the whole year was 141,000 units, accounting for 38.9%.
USA: Model 3 estimated sales from January to November are 84,800, with 10,146 units sold in December for a total of 94,946 units. Model Y sold 64,775 units from January to November, with an estimated sales of 15,478 units in December, totaling 80,252 units for the whole year.
Tesla’s incremental sales this year mainly come from the 140,000 units in China and the 80,000 units from Model Y, totaling nearly 180,000 units, which is also the driving force for Tesla to exceed from 367,500 units in 2019 to 500,000 units in 2020.
Tesla’s 2021 Outlook
From the actual situation in the United States, we can see the impact of Model Y on Tesla’s product structure in California. The demand for Model Y is increasing rapidly, accounting for more than 50%. In the future, this SUV is expected to account for more than 60% of demand and drive incremental sales.
From the characteristics of China, we can clearly see that the prices of the two models are linked, and they compete for market share in different segmented markets. As a low-cost manufacturing goal, the Chinese base is relatively rigid, satisfying the market share goals in China while achieving supply goals in the Asia-Pacific and Europe.
In 2020, Tesla offset the decline in demand in Europe and the United States with the 100,000 units from China and 80,000 units from Model Y during the pandemic. Tesla’s approach is not the conventional method of traditional automakers. There is more to expect from Tesla in 2021. As an automotive practitioner, we can only objectively view this impact without being swayed by emotions.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.