Part I

Inspired by Mr. Cui Jian’s “Wildflower Girl.”

The distance between Shanghai and Beijing, China’s two most developed and important cities, is 1500 kilometers. If you drive a Tesla Model S, you need to stop and charge at least 3 times on the way; if you take the legendary Hyper Loop dreamlike high-speed rail, it takes 2 hours. The reality is a nearly 6-hour journey on the Harmony Express high-speed rail, enduring a somewhat bad on-board lunch. The only reason that drove me to do this was that Mr. Elon Musk came to Beijing. On the evening of his arrival, we spent an unforgettable night together at Tsinghua University.

Look, how our Chinese language beautifully balances accuracy and ambiguity.

On the evening of October 22nd, Mr. Elon Musk attended the Global Economic Forum at Tsinghua University and had a lengthy conversation with Professor Qian Yingyi, the dean of Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management.

On this autumn evening, filled with the scent of winter, Elon Musk answered a lot of questions about Tesla, reflecting his plans for Tesla and perspectives on the global automotive industry, many of which were very interesting.

However, before we delve into these interesting perspectives, I must first talk about my feelings toward Musk as a person – if you don’t have a general understanding of this person, it’s obviously not conducive to understanding what he says.

Just like if you watch the news on the North Korea Central Television without first understanding North Korea’s political system, it may be difficult to understand that there is a kind of smile in the world known as the Mona Lisa.

As the audience waited, Mr. Musk entered amidst applause and screams – this is China’s top business school, not a concert, and the fact that such enthusiasm can be aroused here speaks volumes.

And Professor Qian, as the host of the conversation that night, clearly did a lot of homework. Countless questions throughout the night were logically organized into three levels of philosophy:

Where does your knowledge come from? (Where did you study, what did you learn, and how did you learn it?)

What have you done? (Focusing on the three companies Musk controls: Space-X, Tesla, and Solar City)

Where are you going? (This explains Musk’s values)Mr. Musk maintained an extremely restrained and elegant smile and calm tone throughout the whole process. In front of the camera, he didn’t have the mesmerizing eloquence and storytelling skills of Luo Yonghao, the exquisite control of Mr. Jobs, or the typical passion of an American politician’s speech. Occasionally stumbling, with broken and fragmented sentences, but at a flying fast pace, as if racing with his own thoughts.

His talent and personal charm were evident behind every answer, without showing off, but rather inadvertently exposed. He left everyone in the room fascinated – whether you understand his achievements or accept his views, or even if you didn’t fully understand what he was saying.

The most interesting thing is that Mr. Musk puts on a humble expression and casually throws out some amazing points, and then innocently looks at those of us who are amazed but trying to conceal it in our hearts, unable to digest it completely.

For example, when Professor Qian asked him how he self-studied, especially in difficult and profound physics, does one really not need to attend classes? He said in a casual tone: “Ah, just read a few more books, and then communicate with others, that’s it. Teachers in class? Not necessary, that’s too slow.” – the students at the scene were all in awe.

For example, when a physics professor at Tsinghua asked him how to teach students knowledge more effectively, since higher-level physics is both boring and brain-burning. Mr. Musk bluntly said: “That’s because the general teaching method is wrong, giving students one formula at a time is not right. You need to first pursue an understanding of the inner laws of this physical world, and then formulas will come along.” – the teachers at the scene shed tears.

From his answers, one can feel that his approach to thinking about life, academia, and business issues is often very direct and simple, directly to the essence of things – he completely dislikes things that are dark, outdated, vague, and ambiguous. If he weren’t Musk, many of his comments might be considered extremely naive and unrealistic, especially in Chinese thinking and culture.

He explained why he started SpaceX, knowing that it is almost impossible for a private company to survive in a natural state-monopoly industry like manufacturing space rockets. But he still went ahead because he wanted to eventually help humans immigrate to Mars.

He is concerned that one day a nuclear war or a super SARS will cause the collapse of human civilization on Earth, and he wants to find a second home for humans before that day comes. He believes that Mars is currently the most ideal place. In addition, he feels that rocket technology in the United States and Russia has basically stagnated in recent decades. From the first law of thermodynamics, he has the opportunity to do better.This is undoubtedly a very intelligent, self-centered, and innocent person living in his own world. He is a geek, a business genius, and one of the greatest new characters of our new era.

In fact, I never thought so (calling Elon Musk the greatest character) until this conversation touched me – when Professor Qian asked Musk, “Why do you want to go to Mars?”, Musk said, “I always want to be useful. If life is just to solve one problem after another, why leave it all?” Professor Qian was also shocked and repeated unconsciously, “why leave it all… why leave it all.”

(Here it needs to be explained that Musk actually knows that the chances of making a private rocket company successful are very slim, but he is determined to make a contribution in the field of space transportation – rockets are just the beginning, he wants to create a space manned spacecraft, which can immigrate humans to Mars, make a backup for human civilization, and sow sperms in the universe.

This is something that is particularly difficult, and Musk knows it well. But he just doesn’t want to leave the problem to future generations of humans. He wants to contribute.

That night, Musk repeated the word “useful” countless times throughout the interview. He said he just wanted to do useful things, be a useful person, help improve efficiency in society, overcome difficulties, and achieve achievements that were previously impossible. The word “useful” epitomizes Elon Musk’s values.)

Part II

So I said, you have to understand this person first, and then we can talk about his Tesla. (He also talked a lot about Space X and Solar City that day. It’s not easy for one person to run a leading innovative company in one industry, but Musk has managed to do three at the same time. I just don’t know anything about the rocket industry and solar energy industry, so let’s talk about cars.)

I personally summarized Elon Musk’s core ideas about the automotive industry, which is that he believes that cars will become “consumer electronic products”. Since they are consumer electronic products, cars will undergo two major changes: electrification of power and intelligence of experience.

That night, almost all the topics Musk talked about were based on this core idea.

Here are Musk’s specific remarks (my bold comments are in the slashes):# The Electrification of Automobiles is Inevitable

According to Musk, everything (except rockets) that currently relies on fossil fuels will eventually be electrified. This is due to the massive improvements in efficiency, environmental friendliness, and control accuracy that the electrification offers over combustion of fossil fuels. The EV (electric vehicle) will become the mainstream power technology for automobiles in the future.

Mr. Musk is exceptionally optimistic about the future of the EV market. He predicts that after 15 years (by 2030), the global market share of EVs will exceed 50%, and China will become the largest market. However, for this to happen, EVs must have the ability to compete with traditional gasoline-powered cars in terms of performance and cost-effectiveness after three rounds of upgrades, as new products must have a competitive advantage over old ones to break ingrained customer habits.

Tesla aims to cut down EV prices by localizing production in China. One of the most significant obstacles to the EV market has been the price of its products. To address this issue, Tesla plans to produce its cars in China soon, with the Model 3 being its first locally made car. The cost will be about a third of Model S since production in China will save on import taxes. This will give Tesla the ability to compete aggressively with its German competitors like BMW, Audi, and Mercedes in China’s luxury car market.

In summary, the electrification of automobiles is without a doubt the next big evolution in the industry, leading to a future where EVs will become the mainstream technology for automobiles. The charging infrastructure for EVs will not be a problem with the advancements in battery technology and increased investment in charging stations.Advancements in battery technology will increase the range of new electric vehicles. If the range of electric cars reaches 500 kilometers on average, customers will have a satisfying experience.

As for the charging infrastructure that people are currently concerned about, it will not be a problem in the future. Charging stations only need to be concentrated in residential and work areas, just as people charge their smartphones, they will charge their cars.

I have always believed that with technological progress, electric vehicles with longer driving range will not lose to gasoline cars in terms of convenience. Mr. Musk’s view on charging methods was an eye-opener for me. Just like charging your iPhone at home overnight or at your desk during work, it will be similar for charging cars in the future.

You are not likely to park your car at a gas station or convenience store, waiting for it to charge. Apart from home and office, the only need for charging stations is along long-distance highways. Building charging stations concentrated in planned residential areas and business parks is also an economically viable option.

Regarding the range of electric vehicles, next year’s Nissan new Leaf will exceed 300 kilometers, and Tesla’s Model 3 is expected to achieve a range of 500 kilometers. This is already close to the range of a gasoline car. Moreover, with such excellent range, dependence on charging facilities will be less necessary. If you live near your company, you may only need to charge once a week.

As for charging stations, this issue is more uncertain than battery technology, but the government has already begun requiring new residential areas to build charging stations, so the prospects are optimistic.

Cars are just computers on four wheels.

Because they are computers on wheels, Musk does not think Tesla’s OTA online upgrade system is a big deal. He believes that other car manufacturers do not do this simply because they are used to traditional methods.

Mr. Li Shufu once said that cars are just four wheels and a sofa, but that was a view of the last century. Musk’s theory has evolved another century.

Because they are computers on wheels, cars are destined to become a mobile smart terminal. In the past, cars were more like a collection of things, such as CD players, radios, navigation, parking sensors, and audio, each with its own function under the coordination of the vehicle system.

However, the cars of the future will be more like powerful smart computers. They must have a very powerful intelligent system that can integrate all kinds of hardware internally, install and load various new programs to achieve expansion functions, and can connect with the outside world anytime, anywhere, allowing you to sit in a car with closed windows, but always keep in touch with the outside world.Another idea is that large-scale intelligent hardware usually gives birth to a highly compatible and widely applicable intelligent operating system, such as Windows, iOS, and Android. Tesla has taken the lead in the entire vehicle industry, but in the future, it still needs to be wary of Silicon Valley giants like Apple and Google invading the car computer system.

Autonomous driving technology will arrive sooner than expected.

On the morning of Musk’s visit to Tsinghua, he officially unveiled the V7.0 system update in Tesla, proudly presenting the Auto-Pilot function with the smartest observation and movement capabilities based on road conditions. However, the driver’s hands still need to be on the steering wheel, as complete automation is still beyond reach. Therefore, the car manufacturer is still not responsible for accidents; the liability still belongs to the operator.

Musk believes that true fully automated driving technology will mature 3 years later, with the only remaining constraint being social regulations—an extremely radical prediction!

• I had the honor of asking Musk a question at the conference the day after, “What does fully automated driving mean for automobile products?”

He said, “Imagine sitting in a car, enjoying the beautiful scenery outside, doing your own things with both hands completely free, and the brain no longer being enslaved by the task of observing the road conditions. Once you experience a fully automated driving car, you will never want to go back.”

Fully automated driving will transform the car into a moving intelligent terminal, which will be the greatest technological revolution since the invention of the automobile. It will completely overturn all human understanding and imagination of the car—for example, ordinary people may not be allowed to drive cars in the future because it is too dangerous, just like they are not allowed to carry firearms and ammunition.

I predict that the company that first becomes proficient in this technology and meets the appropriate regulatory environment will immediately become the super winner of the automobile industry and is likely to become the industry leader that wins all in the future, regardless of whether this company manufactures cars.

Welcome to follow Yiran Talk About Cars – Zhihu Column

November 3, 2015, Shanghai

This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.