Introduction
The latest issue of The Economist in April is officially released, and the cover story is “The Future of Cars”. Like smartphones replacing feature phones, cars are also facing their own breakthroughs. A series of new technologies are making cars more energy-efficient and safer, and self-driving cars will replace current cars, and it won’t be too long.
Evolution of Cars
Some inventions, like certain species, evolve in leaps and bounds, and cars are one of them. After 25 years of small-scale production of his pioneering Mercedes-Benz, Karl Benz, Henry Ford and his engineers brought breakthroughs to the automotive industry. In 1913, they made cars a consumer product and redefined the modern urban landscape. The T-model cars produced on a moving assembly line in the Detroit factory not only drastically shortened production time, but also reduced costs. The revolution of personal mobility began, and now there are nearly one billion cars running on the world’s highways.
Changes in Automotive Industry
Today’s cars are undergoing another revolution. One of the changes is about car emissions. As emerging markets become richer, more and more consumers are eager to buy their first cars. If the car ownership level of the whole world catches up with that of the United States, the number of cars on the earth will quadruple. Even a small increase will pose serious challenges, from traffic congestion, rising oil prices to environmental pollution and global warming.
However, stricter regulations and advanced technologies make cars cleaner, more energy-efficient and safer than ever before. Due to heavy urban smog, China is also following Europe in controlling the emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. Regulators in many major car markets are calling for greater efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and car manufacturers are creatively coming up with various ways to meet these requirements.
Clean Technologies
However, the performance of battery-powered cars is still disappointing. These cars are still expensive and have limited range, and they are sometimes less environmentally friendly than they look, as the electricity they use is produced by coal-fired power plants. But car companies are investing heavily in clean technology, and in the future, drivers will have more options, including ultra-efficient gasoline and diesel cars, hybrid cars (which can switch between battery and internal combustion engine) and products that burn natural gas and hydrogen. Pure electric cars will come about, it’s just a matter of time.
Driving Assistance Technologies
Meanwhile, a series of driving assistance technologies are being applied to new cars, which can not only reduce driving pressure in traffic jams, but also prevent accidents. More and more new cars can automatically park themselves, identify traffic signals, maintain a safe distance while driving smoothly and automatically apply brakes to avoid collisions. Some carmakers have developed new technologies that can identify pedestrians and cyclists and then control the driver to stop before hitting them. Many companies, including Google, are committed to making driving assistance devices make reasonable judgments, and enabling cars to automatically reach their destinations without human control, which is the most exciting part .Google co-founder Sergey Brin predicts that self-driving cars will be sold to consumers within the next five years. While this may be too optimistic, prototypes of these autonomous vehicles have already begun ferrying Google employees on California highways. Google hopes that the world will soon embrace self-driving cars, but it will take time for drivers to adapt.
As sensors and driving assistance software continue to improve and reduce accidents, regulators will mandate the installation of these devices on new vehicles. Insurance companies are also beginning to require drivers to install black boxes to examine their driving behavior. This may provide more evidence that navigating a vehicle with an automatic guidance system is safer than human driving, as computers never drink and drive or text while behind the wheel.
Fully autonomous cars could bring many benefits. Google has tried having blind people ride in prototypes while cameras recorded their drive to buy fast food. Many elderly and disabled individuals could regain mobility. Young people no longer have to buy disability insurance since they won’t need to use their hands and feet to drive. Annually, 1.2 million people across the world die in traffic accidents, and 2 million Americans visit the hospital because of them. Using self-driving cars will greatly reduce fatalities, injuries, as well as healthcare and insurance costs.
Self-driving cars can also alleviate traffic congestion and save energy. Computers brake much faster than humans and can sense a sudden braking vehicle ahead. This means that self-driving cars can drive closer together than humanly safe distances. On a highway, a line of autonomous cars could form an energy-saving “road train” that moves forward with the flow of traffic. Commuters who travel by car every day will have more time to work, relax, and read the newspaper.
Some automakers are not in agreement with this futuristic blueprint. People will be scared if they can’t control a fast-driving vehicle on a highway – what if the computer crashes? If an accident occurs involving autonomous driving technology, automakers may face massive legal lawsuits and could stop developing this tech.
However, without even realizing it, many people have already begun traveling by self-driving planes and trains. Using these technologies, self-driving cars will also gradually become more widespread. Vehicle software will learn human techniques to avoid danger, such as stopping when they see a ball bouncing across the street, as it indicates children nearby. Google’s self-driving cars have already driven safely for over 700,000 kilometers, longer than many people’s driving experience. The skills they’ve learned will be applied to other vehicles that use such software. As to issues of responsibility, laws will change – when accidents occur, the courts will evaluate the overall safety benefits of self-driving technology.If you still think that autonomous cars are a pipe dream, think about television and flying machines that were once heavier than air. Perhaps, one day, people will wonder why our ancestors thought it was safer for clumsy humans to drive cars than for machines to do it. (Compiled by Lucheng)
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.