Introduction: Academician Ouyang Minggao believes that the ultimate trend of new energy vehicle development is first the low-carbonization of energy, and second the intelligence of the system. With the energy Internet and the vehicle Internet that new energy vehicles themselves have, it will trigger a whole industrial revolution.
Finally, the new energy market ended a perfect year in 2021. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the 12 months from January to December, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. At the same time, the market penetration rate also crossed the 10% mark and reached 13.4%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year.
Compared with the rapid growth of production and sales in the new energy market, the replacement of market driving forces may be more exciting. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that new energy vehicles have become the biggest bright spot in the automobile industry, and the development of new energy vehicles has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven new development stage.
This should be the first time that the official has emphasized that the development of the new energy market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, which is of great significance. When the development of new energies is driven by the market, it means that regardless of whether subsidies exist or not, the market may fluctuate in stages, but the trend forward will not change.
Yes, from the ten cities and thousands of vehicles in 2009, to pouring heavy investment in 2015, to the current transfer to the market, the new energy vehicle industry has entered a new stage of development. Based on such a background of the times, some people have begun to imagine a brand new future.
On January 8th, the 100,000th production car of new car maker NETA Auto was produced at its factory in Tongxiang, Zhejiang province. Chinese new energy expert and scholar Ouyang Minggao attended the offline ceremony and gave a lecture on the theme of “smart energy” for the new era of new energy development.
Academician Ouyang Minggao believes that the ultimate trend of new energy vehicle development is first the low-carbonization of energy, and second the intelligence of the system. With the energy Internet and the vehicle Internet that new energy vehicles themselves have, it will trigger a whole industrial revolution.
New demand under the dual carbon strategy
In recent years, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (referred to as dual carbon) have been universally recognized and have become a new driving force for the development of major economies in the world.
In September 2020, China announced its dual carbon target to the world for the first time: to strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Since then, based on the core strategic goal of “dual carbon”, energy conservation and consumption reduction has become the main melody of development in all walks of life in China.
How is dual carbon achieved in China?According to Academician Ouyang Minggao, after the promotion services of photovoltaic and new energy projects in various cities, energy companies, including State Grid and State Energy Group, signed contracts with local governments to achieve carbon reduction targets. Academician Ouyang also revealed that State Grid has signed contracts with more than 300 cities.
Furthermore, dual carbon is now a target, and if the targets of each city cannot be reached, no investment can be made. Therefore, every city is willing to participate. This interaction involves both market forces and government forces, leading to a “decarbonization” movement that is actively brewing.
However, since last year, due to the inability to manage the switch from old to new energy supply, “power outages” have occurred worldwide. In 2021, countries such as the United States, China, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and Lebanon have all experienced “power outages,” affecting many businesses and residents.
The power outage last year has made many people nervous and undoubtedly prompted us to reflect on whether some radical carbon reduction measures are appropriate? At the same time, it has also sounded an alarm for the booming new energy vehicle industry. After the “power outage” occurred last year, there was still an online discussion about whether to buy electric cars.
Academician Ouyang shared a piece of data about the cause of “power outages.” He said that China’s electricity resources average 1-1.5 kilowatts per person, and if it’s 3-6 kilowatts per person, the power grid cannot handle it. Academician Ouyang also revealed that the power grid load in Shanghai and Shenzhen has become tight, so the two cities are planning “orderly charging”.
“Orderly charging” means relatively more orderly than “disordered charging.” In the current disordered charging mode, electric power resources have not been coordinated, leading to a lot of waste. As the number of electric vehicles continues to increase, the situation of occupying power grid resources during peak periods will inevitably occur.
Academician Ouyang made a calculation; he estimated that there will be 300 million electric vehicles in 2040. If each car uses 65 degrees of electricity, the total electricity consumption will be nearly 20 billion degrees, which is currently the total daily electricity consumption in China.
The fundamental reason for the development of new energy is to improve energy strategy problems and contribute to the dual carbon strategy. At the same time, how to prevent the occurrence of power outage crises before they erupt is becoming more and more urgent, especially under the rapid development of new energy.
Therefore, “orderly charging” is considered one of the most effective means at present. But how to achieve “orderly charging” without blindly forcing companies to limit electricity or electric vehicle users to deliberately stagger charging times? This is not humane, nor sustainable.The dual-carbon strategy, energy strategy, power grid regulation, and the development of new energy vehicles… We urgently need a new set of development logic and framework.
The Emergence of Smart Energy
The core of “orderly charging” is intelligent regulation of the power grid, also known as “peak shaving and filling the valley,” which stores electricity resources during low peak times and releases them during high peak periods, without waste and eliminates “power shortages.”
At the level of “peak shaving and filling the valley,” it naturally involves the medium for storing power resources. Currently, energy storage is generally recognized as the optimal solution. Especially with the further maturity of high-energy-density lithium battery technology and the overall downward trend in costs, the value of energy storage power stations has been further emphasized.
Academician Ouyang Minggao pointed out that the national regulations stipulate that the capacity ratio of energy storage stations in various regions is 20%. As long as clean energy such as photovoltaics and wind power is used, energy storage stations must be built.
However, academician Ouyang Minggao also pointed out that there are certain risks associated with energy storage stations. After all, there are too many batteries in energy storage stations, and our battery management technology is not yet sufficient to control them 100% safely.
In April last year, the Beijing Guoxuan FWG Energy Technology Co., Ltd. energy storage power station caught fire during construction and debugging, causing 4 casualties, which caused a sensation in the industry at that time. In July last year, a Tesla’s largest energy storage station in Australia also caught fire. Yes, even strong companies like Tesla still find it difficult to fully manage an energy storage station.
These two accidents undoubtedly poured cold water on the construction of large-scale energy storage stations. Therefore, in addition to large-scale energy storage stations, people are also considering slightly smaller energy storage devices, such as electric vehicles.
Compared with large energy storage stations, electric vehicles, as small energy storage stations, are relatively safer, with extremely low probability of causing casualties, and with the further maturity of battery intelligent monitoring technology, their safety will be further improved. Therefore, compared with large-scale energy storage stations, electric vehicles, as a small energy storage station, have good prospects.
According to Academician Ouyang Minggao, as a small energy storage station, electric vehicles can achieve emergency power supply, V2V, vehicle-to-vehicle charging, V2H, vehicle-to-home power supply, V2B, vehicle-to-building power supply, V2G, vehicle-to-microgrid power supply, which can be summed up as V2X.
Regarding V2X, Academician Ouyang Minggao stated that currently, electric vehicles can connect and cooperate with other electric vehicles, buildings, communities/parks, and cities, and activate “microgrids.” As for the increase in cost ratio, it is only about 10%, mainly due to the hardware cost increase of bidirectional charging.Academician Ouyang Minggao did a quick calculation. Replacing a unidirectional charging machine with a bidirectional one costs around 300-600 yuan. If you can earn 0.4 yuan per degree of electricity, the annual income can reach 4000 yuan, which is attractive to users.
Electric vehicles are actually clues to energy storage. In 2017, Florida was hit by a hurricane. In response to user demands, Tesla immediately unlocked an “extra” range of 30-40 miles for Tesla in the state. In recent years, the scenes of interconnecting electric vehicles and supplying power to appliances during outings are increasingly being explored domestically.
The medium between electric vehicles and the power grid as an energy storage medium is the energy storage cabinet. According to Academician Ouyang Minggao, the energy storage cabinet is similar to a container in size and can be divided into 10-20 charging piles to meet the needs of communities and parks. In terms of design, it can be tied to buildings.
In fact, Tesla also has a similar energy storage cabinet called the Powerwall, but it is more geared towards household users, while energy storage cabinets are more geared towards communities/parks, depending on the different national conditions of the two. Of course, their design logic is the same, and size is not an issue.
With the medium effect of electric vehicles and energy storage cabinets established, the next step is to find scenarios. Academician Ouyang Minggao used Jiaxing, where NETA Auto is located, as an example to explain. The first scenario is the highway, the second scenario is residential and commercial buildings, and the third scenario is industrial parks, and then design supplementary energy and control networks for each scenario.
Among the outdoor charging networks mentioned above, not only are traditional charging stations included, but photovoltaic power generation systems will also be introduced. Academician Ouyang Minggao believes that photovoltaics and electric vehicles are a perfect match—they are both distributed and small-scale. When they are combined, it is an energy Internet and smart energy, which can trigger an energy revolution.
Academician Ouyang Minggao said that the reform of the electric power market is actively underway, and transactions have begun. Carbon markets will also come up soon, and carbon prices will also rise. Currently, it is around 50 yuan per ton (500 yuan in Europe). According to people engaged in carbon trading, it will definitely rise to more than 500 yuan per ton by 2025.
The development of new energy is essentially the reconstruction of an energy network, and the connection of new energy networks requires the use of intelligence to connect, which is “smart energy”. According to Academician Ouyang Minggao, 2022 is the first year of the launch of smart energy.
Who can win the second half?The conclusion is consistent with China Association of Automobile Manufacturers that Professor Ouyang Minggao also believes that China’s new energy vehicle market has entered a new stage dominated by market drive, and has entered an explosive growth stage with the support of intelligent energy. To Professor Ouyang, smart energy is a more advanced version of the pure electric logic, characterized by more advanced technological concepts, wider range of brand coverage (covering low-end, mid-range, high-end, commercial and passenger vehicles), closer fit with China’s national conditions, and compatibility with the dual carbon strategy. In other words, smart energy may achieve greater breakthroughs.
For example, in terms of intelligent technology, Professor Ouyang Minggao said that it is not only the intelligence of operation, such as vehicle networking, intelligent cockpit, and intelligent driving, but also a comprehensive revolution of the entire automobile industry, including intelligent power and intelligent manufacturing. It can be considered all intelligent management around smart electric vehicles.
Moreover, for brand aspects, since it caters to all brands, it implies that those mass brands may explode with higher energy. For example, as the host of this event and committed to making cars for the people, NIOECOTYRE received applause from Professor Ouyang Minggao and recognition for its performance. The data shows that NIOECOTYRE delivered a total of 69,674 units in 2021, ranking fourth among new forces after NIO and ahead of other newcomers, with a year-on-year growth rate of as high as 362%, ranking first among new forces. At present, the new forces have become the core driving force of the new energy vehicle market, and NIOECOTYRE’s strong performance and industry importance can be seen.
Regarding NIOECOTYRE’s future, Professor Ouyang Minggao also gave his wishes, saying, “I hope that when NIOECOTYRE fully opens up the smart energy new track in 2022, it can continue to open up the market, cultivate and deepen its intelligent technology field, and master the leading technology, constantly fulfill the original aspiration of ‘making cars for the people.'”
Being able to receive recognition and wishes from Professor Ouyang Minggao is not easy. For NIOECOTYRE, it shows that they have won the first half of the game to some extent and have the capability to continue to open up, or even win the second half of the game. It is well known that the first half of the new energy game is about electrification, while the second half is about intelligence. In terms of intelligence, NIOECOTYRE may be weaker than NIO in single intelligent driving, but as a whole, it is outstanding in the entire layout of intelligence.In last year’s article on “Legend”, we have already mentioned that the Chairman of Hezhong New Energy, Fang Yunzhou, proposed at the Two Sessions that China should jointly build an intelligent electric vehicle operating system. According to Electric Momentum, the proposal has received a response from higher-ups and is expected to be launched soon.
From the competition between China and the US in recent years, it is easy to see the strategic importance of the intelligent electric vehicle operating system to the future of smart electric vehicles. However, it’s hard to imagine that the one who first proposed this issue was a new car maker that delivers nearly 70,000 cars per year, and also an extremely low-key one at that, Fang Yunzhou.
If you are willing to take off your colored glasses and look at the new forces, you will not be surprised by the above facts. Because, whether in the performance of each market or in the foresight of core technology of intelligent electric vehicles, new forces are in a leading position compared with traditional enterprises, which is an undeniable fact.
This time, Academician Ouyang Minggao also made a prediction that “with the further increase of investment in intelligent and interconnected fields by new car makers, users will have a more efficient, convenient and safe intelligent driving experience, and its advantages over traditional car companies will also be further expanded.”
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.