EXPO 100 People and Its Media Focuses on the Evolution of the Automotive Industry
Authored by Roomy
To be precise, my trip to the Guangzhou Auto Show did not start with Wei Auto’s launch of a new smart hybrid strategy, nor did it start with Audi’s Future Summit “A Toast to the Present, A Toast to the Future.”
It started with a story told by He XPeng.
On November 18th, at the XPeng brand’s Brand Renewal Day press conference, He XPeng recalled a day two years ago in 2019. He and Li Bin talked overnight until 4 a.m., one “standing at the door,” the other “lying in the ICU.” They drank tea all night and couldn’t find a way out of the predicament. “We had to persevere,” and they cheered each other on.
“Luckily, we didn’t give up.” Two years later, in 2021, He XPeng was much calmer and once again volunteered to “do something extraordinary with an ordinary name” and brought the first car model under the new logo, Xiao Peng G9.
This SUV’s mission is straightforward, “to shoulder the brand’s upward momentum and sales growth,” to challenge Ideality ONE and enter NIO’s home court. In addition, Cadillac LYRIQ and Audi e-tron have also eagerly entered the battle. In the next few years, the mid-to-large pure electric SUV market may become a red sea.
What about Li Bin, the other protagonist in the story from 4 a.m.?
He was not seen at this year’s Guangzhou Auto Show, and NIO, which has always been the protagonist of electrification, was also slightly cool, with only its first sedan, ET7, making an appearance. Recently, Li Bin has encountered some difficulties, including autonomous driving, production capacity, user issues, and criticism.
“After the second half of the year, NIO’s development momentum has slightly weakened,” this is an indisputable fact.
After surviving “life and death”, NIO still needs to undergo a breakthrough in scale. Li Bin, who has gone through a series of events, is also considering how to deal with the counterattack from traditional auto companies. Because courageous knights never want to become a thing of the past.
The story of “offense and defense, times have changed” is waiting for a transformation at any moment.
The world’s richest man, Musk, is also worried about such stories happening. While somewhat diplomatically expressing Tesla’s facing the most potent challenger from Volkswagen, he also bluntly said, “I hope they can achieve high production and break-even, which is the real test.”
Today’s Musk has become what he hated most in the past. What kind of person was that? The Musk of the past, who faced a constant siege and curses from traditional auto tycoons, dismissed the argument that “he is selfish for the sake of honor.”Some people say that only today’s “Musk” can compare to yesterday’s Musk who was “floating”. While writing a seven-line poem, “相煎何太急”, he ridiculed and taunted at the same time.
However, Tesla, who was absent from the Guangzhou Auto Show, also has its own challenges. As successors catch up one after another, Tesla’s disruptive power is getting smaller and smaller and it can no longer subvert consumers’ understanding of smart cars from a single technological perspective.
“What if Tesla lacks innovation one day?” There is no answer, just crossing the river by feeling the stones.
However, Diess, who feels a strong sense of crisis, does not care about Musk’s mockery. What he wants to do is to ensure that the public “will not repeat Nokia’s mistakes in the field of smartphones.”
Only counterattack.
Everyone knows that it was not Apple’s strength that broke the myth of Nokia, but the change of times that caused Nokia to fall from grace overnight.
Looking at it now, the progressives have made great progress. But for them, these advances are never enough. The counterattack from traditional car companies is being carried out in full swing.
Industry insiders have also set the tone for the real counterattack by traditional car companies, starting from this year’s Guangzhou Auto Show.
“The pressure is on the side of the new forces.”
“Not all traditional car companies are unaware of future trends, and not all start-ups represent future trends,” Li Bin once said.
But no traditional car company is willing to be left behind, and ALL-in is the way they have to take. In this era, the transformation journey led by Tesla and NIO Motors leaves no spare moment.
“Ford is pushing for an All-in electrification strategy globally.” Chen Anning said in an interview. However, apart from the Mustang Mach-E, the two leading gasoline models on display at Ford and Lincoln are still there: the Ford EVOS Chaser and the Lincoln Z.
In fact, Ford’s transformation pace is much slower than that of General Motors, which also comes from Detroit. It is only now that they have started to focus on electric vehicles with the Mustang Mach-E, and the full picture of their electrification strategy has not yet been seen.
General Motors is eager to bring the first model of the Altium electric platform to the Guangzhou Auto Show. The Cadillac LYRIQ is ready for battle. For Mary Barra, the feeling at this time is a bit complicated.Perhaps Diess understands Mary Barra’s desperate situation. They are both under pressure from investors demanding profits while facing internal resistance to change. Regarding reform, Diess, Mary Barra and the unions have long-standing conflicts.
As Reuters reported on November 10th, Volkswagen’s third-quarter financial report fell below expectations, prompting Diess to produce a layoff plan that would further reduce costs and develop electric vehicle businesses, potentially affecting 30,000 jobs.
“The truth is that Diess does not care about the difficulties and concerns of his employees,” says the Volkswagen union. As a result, calls for Diess to be sacked have increased again. He remains the “toughest man of 2020” to this day.
At 63, Diess is struggling to move the 84-year-old Volkswagen company forward.
But it has to happen.
Diess wants this “elephant” to shed its shackles and dance, so he brought in Musk to teach 200 executives. “Diess had no choice but to let Musk brainwash Volkswagen executives,” despite the fact that German media refers to Tesla as “an arrow piercing the heart of European giants.”
After good sales in the European market, the foreigner in Wolfsburg, following the success of the ID series, gained support from two major families. “Porsche and Piech families still support Diess” with the condition that the results of the reforms are reflected in the Chinese market.
The ID series of electric vehicles, while selling well in Europe, are “far from expectations” in China, and Diess wants to know where the problem lies. So, the problem was brought to SAIC Volkswagen by AutocarMax.
“For the Volkswagen brand, it has been a top seller in single-brand sales for 37 years, and the brand and users must have been going back and forth. But for us now, we have to be more proactive.”
After two years of painful transformation, SAIC Volkswagen’s willingness to change is noteworthy. However, whether they can fully understand Diess’s loneliness on the road to change remains to be seen.
When it comes to this, Chen Anning’s words apply to the mindset of every traditional car company in transition. “We must play the role of ‘challenger’ and no longer consider ourselves a ‘century-old brand.’ This is especially true for electric vehicles.”
Toyota, which has long been misunderstood as “attacking electric vehicles,” is the first company to put this concept into practice.
# Toyota and Nissan Showcase Their Electric Vehicles at Auto Shanghai 2021
Toyota, once criticized for lagging behind in the electric vehicle race, is now showcasing a dual-strategy approach of stability and progress by abandoning its title of “global first” and “most profitable” and unveiling the bZ4X, its first electric vehicle developed on the e-TNGA platform for the Chinese market. Toyota Motor President Akio Toyoda claims that companies like Google, Apple, and even Facebook, are now the company’s competitors, marking a shift in the automotive industry.
In comparison, Honda is taking a more decisive approach toward electrification by purchasing a 1% stake in battery supplier CATL to ensure battery supply for its electrification push. Nissan, who once claimed to be the first Japanese automaker to embrace electrification, has concentrated all of its electrification strategy into the all-electric Ariya crossover.
It seems that traditional automakers are taking a more cautious approach to electrification, with language like “firm but uncertain,” “hopeful,” and “chaos and sense of mission” emerging from industry insiders. The shift is understandable as they gain a better understanding of the market’s potential and current limitations.## Souls are Involved
The rhythm of counterattack is becoming more obvious than ever.
New high-end brands created by traditional independent carmakers such as Xpeng, Weltmeister, Lynk & Co, IM Auto, and Salon have started to surpass Weichai’s momentum at the Guangzhou Auto Show. One after another, they move faster, but whether their souls can keep up seems less important after all.
After all, everyone wants to change from a follower to a disruptor.
“We used to be accustomed to rapid success. In the future, we must fight a protracted battle.” Wei Jianjun said at the 30th anniversary of Great Wall Motor Company. However, this does not seem to apply to Salon Zhixing.
“Is the design of Salon Zhixing’s first model called the Mech Dragon really a production model? Does it comply with the traffic regulation?” Before my media colleagues and I could discuss the rationale behind the design of Mech Dragon, we heard that several media outlets had already ordered it.
This limited edition of Salon Mech Dragon is sold for 488,000 yuan, and only 101 cars are available in the world. “Huawei LiDAR + Dayu Battery” has become the technological label of Mech Dragon.
“In the field of luxury electric vehicles priced between 300,000 and 800,000 yuan, each 100,000 yuan has the opportunity to find a new subdivision market to cut into. But the product has higher requirements and must have sufficient differentiation.” Salon Zhixing CEO Wen Fei did not intend to be polite.
“In a market of 90% capacity, obtaining a 10% market share is far less valuable than achieving a 90% market share in a market of 10% capacity.” This is a choice between 10% and 90%, and Wen Fei has a goal.
“Among the new forces, we will achieve profitability the fastest, sell the fastest to break 100,000 units, and achieve revenue of over 100 billion yuan.”
Weichai, which has been in business for 7 years and has only just crossed the threshold of 100,000 units, may secretly criticize “the calf is just born, and hasn’t experienced the beating of society” upon hearing this.
“Salon Zhixing makes this market more involved.” In the past, the competition was centered around the range. When competitors launched an EV with a range of 600 kilometers, those with 700 kilometers must catch up, and various energy replenishment layouts became new competition points.
Now, the competition has also focused on “intelligence.”
Before the release of the first model of Weltmeister, Salon Zhixing issued a challenge in a few posters. “If you have less than four LiDARs, please don’t speak. It’s normal for me to leave you behind. You can either be envious or generous.” The language was quite presumptuous.Salon has released the technological specifications of its first car model, the Mechadragon, which boasts “4 lidars, a 0-100 km/h acceleration capability of 3.7 seconds, efficient energy replenishment with 800V/480kW, and is the only car model in the world with full laser panoramic coverage.”
“I remember the 4 lidars right away,” said a media colleague.
This kind of marketing makes traditional car companies, who are accustomed to caution, feel helpless. Although it’s known that the ultimate goal of competition is “safety” with intelligence. Unfortunately, consumers’ appetite has been cultivated by internet car makers, and “your computing power is not enough, automatic driving without L4, intelligence is not advanced” has become their standard.
As a result, even traditional luxury brands such as Volvo, Cadillac, Lincoln, Jaguar Land Rover, and others in the same exhibition hall as Salon Zhixing, appear to have lost some luster under the interference of “4 lidars” and “retro Mechadragon.”
In fact, Avita may be even more frustrated than traditional luxury brands. Under the support of the three giants Chang’an, Huawei, and Ningde Times, their stock price has been falling continuously for three days. Avita has been overshadowed by Salon Zhixing.
“The acceleration from 0 to 100 km/h in less than 4 seconds, high-voltage super-fast charging of 200 kW, intelligent driving computing power of 400 Tops, a range of 700 km, and equipped with Huawei HarmonyOS Smart Cabin.” This list of technological features isn’t as prominent in the face of “4 lidars.”
“The homogeneity of technology is becoming more and more apparent. The pressure on Tesla and WmAuto, who want to continue to lead, is huge. Mediocrity will be the original sin.” Nobody wants to be labeled mediocre, including BBA.
Now, the electric vehicle market above ¥400,000 is being snatched up by new forces. BMW’s pure electric SUV iX, Mercedes-Benz EQA, EQB, SAIC Audi Q5 e-tron, and FAW Volkswagen’s Audi Q4 e-tron are all a little unwilling and committed to “showing off their muscles” in intelligent technology.
“It is industry consensus that traditional car companies’ transition to technology is still a conservative path, which is different from internet car makers.” Luxury brands still focus on range and still need to catch up with the coursework required for intelligence.
For example, the Mercedes-Benz EQB, priced at ¥4.378 million, has a pure electric range of 512 km and requires 45 minutes for fast charging to 80% capacity. These data can’t be “rolled out” easily. Another example is the SAIC Audi’s first electric car Q5 e-tron, priced between ¥400,000 and ¥520,000, with a range of 420 km, 520 km, and 560 km under CLTC-P conditions, which hasn’t quite reached Avita’s “700 km.”Before this, BMW CEO Zipse also said, “Tesla does not belong to the high-end market, but only likes to promote sales growth through price cuts,” and “with the continuous entry of traditional car companies, Tesla’s advantages will no longer exist.” Implicitly, BMW still regards “luxury” as the first label in electrification and intelligence.
Different from the pace and habits of promoting electric cars in North America and Europe, these giants need to re-understand Chinese electric car consumers. Incomplete transformation of cognition is also a kind of underestimation. “Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi are also struggling in the field of electric cars.”
The “mutual rolling” in technology configuration has changed the pattern of the industrial chain. Previously, the stage was occupied by the automaker in the C position, but now technology companies such as CATL, Horizon, Black Sesame, and Huawei have become the “center of attention.”
Under the leadership of software-defined cars, the industrial supply chain will be further restructured, becoming an indisputable fact. More and more people are queuing up to pick up goods outside the gates of CATL and Horizon.
“We are also afraid of rolling inward.”
A senior executive of a technology company said, “Now we have to prove to the automaker again and again that we do not hold the soul.” After all, mastering the “core technology” of chips only means getting a ticket to the game.
Hey, interesting, even the “soul” is rolling inward.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.