On July 10th, several media outlets cited overseas media reports claiming that “Honda announced the termination of production of hydrogen fuel cell cars.”
Last year in April, many media outlets also claimed that “Daimler had abandoned hydrogen fuel cell cars.”
But what is the truth?
Honda has only suspended production of the CLARITY FUEL CELL model. By 2040, Honda plans to achieve zero emissions for all of its car models, with a portion being pure electric and a portion being hydrogen fuel cell cars. Honda is still collaborating with General Motors on the development of hydrogen fuel cell cars.
As for Daimler, the company formed a joint venture with Volvo Group called “Cellcentric” to develop hydrogen fuel cell trucks.
Countless rumors have circulated in the media about companies abandoning hydrogen fuel cell cars, prompting frustration among industry experts.
Despite this, hydrogen fuel cell technology continues to make significant progress globally, with a 13.6% growth in sales of fuel cell stacks.
Honda has been developing hydrogen fuel cell cars since the 90s, starting with the Odyssey concept car that had a large fuel cell system. After nearly 30 years of development, Honda’s Clarity and Toyota’s Mirai have a distinct design. Thanks to Honda’s FCVCU technology and unique stack design, the size of a Honda fuel cell engine is now similar to that of a V6 combustion engine. Honda is still collaborating with General Motors on the development of fuel cell cars. While Honda’s Clarity hasn’t been deployed in large numbers, it’s part of their market strategy.
But even if Honda were to stop developing fuel cell cars, it wouldn’t be a big deal. In the last five years, the global fuel cell market has seen consistent growth.Even after the unprecedented ravages of the pandemic in 2020, the development of fuel cells has not come to a halt. A foreign consulting firm described the fuel cell market in 2020 as follows: “2020 was brutal, but the fuel cell industry seems to have survived it.”
In 2020, the global fuel cell shipments amounted to approximately 82,500 units, an increase of approximately 13.6% compared to 72,600 units in 2019. In terms of power, the installed capacity in 2020 was 1,319 megawatts, an increase from 1,192 megawatts in 2019. Compared to 2016, the installed capacity has more than doubled.
If we consider the application scenarios, fuel cells can be divided into three categories: portable, stationary power generation, and transportation. In terms of shipments, transportation applications have been steadily increasing for five consecutive years, accounting for about 25% in 2020. In terms of power, the transportation applications can reach up to 75% of the total installed capacity.
From these results, it can be seen that transportation has become an important application scenario for fuel cells. In 2020, fuel cells found many new applications in the transportation sector, such as fuel cell trucks, buses, forklifts, excavators, trains, and even luxury cruise ships.
The data tells us that while fuel cells have not yet exploded, they are still growing.
For a company, whether to develop fuel cell technology or not is just a choice based on their own situation. Before 2015, the pure electric vehicle technology was not widely accepted worldwide, except for China. Now, more and more partners are joining this path, the technology is becoming more mature, and the market is getting bigger. Therefore, “a company’s decision to stop developing a certain technology” does not prove that the technology is not feasible. Every company has its own practical considerations, and outsiders only see the results.
Looking at the situation in China, the development of new energy vehicles is closely related to policies. 2020 was a crucial year for the development of fuel cells, and policies were frequently introduced. The most powerful policy was the “Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles” demonstration application notice for fuel cell vehicles.
In September 2020, five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the “Notice on Carrying Out Demonstration Applications of Fuel Cell Vehicles,” which called for demonstration application cities nationwide.Notice that “reward instead of compensation” will be adopted to verify and allocate reward funds for the cities that pass the demonstration target. The demonstration main body is the city cluster, through voluntary declaration of local governments and expert review to confirm the demonstration city cluster.
This demonstration campaign has both technical goals, that is, to clearly define the 8 core components including fuel cell stack, hydrogen recirculation pump, air compressor, membrane electrode, bipolar plate, catalyst, carbon paper and proton exchange membrane and focus on technical breakthroughs; and economic means, that is, to clearly propose that the terminal selling price of hydrogen should not be higher than 35 yuan per kilogram. The target is also to demonstrate 1000 whole vehicles and put 15 hydrogen filling stations into operation.
Driven by favorable policies, various provinces and cities have applied to join the demonstration camp. 10-20 city clusters eventually submitted application materials.
Currently, Beijing and Shanghai are expected to become the “flagship” of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters.
Beijing is the leading city for the development of hydrogen energy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and has in-depth cooperation with Tianjin, Zhangjiakou and Baoding. In March 2021, the news that Toyota and Beijing SinoHytec Co., Ltd. set up Huafeng Fuel Cell Co., Ltd. spread quickly. By then, Toyota’s fuel cell components will be manufactured domestically instead of being imported from Japan. FCV and EV are defined as the next-generation green vehicles in Beijing. The “Implementation Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Beijing (2021-2025)” (draft for comments) proposes to cultivate 5 to 8 hydrogen industrial chain leading enterprises by 2023, achieve a hydrogen energy industry scale of over 50 billion yuan in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, build 37 hydrogen filling stations and promote 3000 FCVs.
Many of the FCVs’ deployment before 2022 will serve the Winter Olympics. At the end of 2020, Yutong, Zhongtong, Geely and BAIC Foton jointly won the bid for 140 12-meter fuel cell buses in Zhangjiakou. Therefore, in the next 3 years, there will inevitably be a situation where Beijing is at the center to accelerate the development of the supply chain of fuel cell vehicles, fuel cell stacks and related hydrogenation products.
Shanghai has started the layout and development of fuel cells earlier than Beijing, and the industrial chain is relatively sound. It is expected that by 2023, there will be 10,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles on the road in Shanghai, and plans to build 100 hydrogen filling stations before the same year. By 2023, the industry’s output value will reach 100 billion yuan. At the end of last year, there were about 1,200 FCVs in Shanghai, slightly lower than Shenzhen. The goal for 2023 is equivalent to increasing the number of FCVs by 8 times.
Fuel cell stack costs are decreasing.Some argue that the civilian use of fuel cell vehicles is difficult, and I agree to an extent. But it is only a difficulty, not an impossibility.
Currently, we face enormous pressure to achieve carbon neutrality and peak carbon emissions. Under constant technological constraints, environmental protection, efficiency, and cost have formed a “trilemma”! In the past, people sacrificed cost for environmental protection and efficiency and gave up horses and carriages. With the rapid development of technology, the cost of automobiles has decreased significantly. In other words, high costs are the driving force behind technological progress. Nowadays, cars have entered ordinary households. In 2020, China’s automobile ownership reached 372 million. Our environmental problems have once again come to the forefront.
In the short term, cost is indeed a hurdle that inhibits the development of fuel cell technology. However, in the long term, we are faced with another choice: temporarily sacrificing cost to reduce carbon emissions while maintaining efficiency. We do this in exchange for technological advancement, better health and longevity, and a greener environment.
Perhaps fuel cell vehicles are currently in a somewhat awkward position. On the one hand, fuel cell technology is very mature, while on the other hand, pure electric vehicles using lithium-ion batteries are now becoming widespread. Therefore, some may question the significance of developing hydrogen energy. In Jeremy Rifkin’s book “The Third Industrial Revolution” published in 2012, he believed that there are five major pillars of future energy, and hydrogen energy is one of them. In the future, the “hydrogen society” will replace the “carbon society”. This is the premise for our development of hydrogen.
Fortunately, there are frequent reports of the declining cost of fuel cell stacks.
Nation-Hong priced their Hongxin GI stack at 1,999 yuan/kilowatt, while Shenzhen Hydrogen Ray’s A1 fuel cell stack had a preorder price of only 1,199 yuan/kilowatt. Although I believe that the actual cost of fuel cell stacks can only be truly clear after reaching a scale, at least from an accounting perspective, there is room for the price of fuel cell stacks to decrease with scale. The era of fuel cell stacks entering the 2,000 yuan era is foreseeable. I sincerely hope that these companies reporting low prices can leave enough profit margins for themselves and not rely on subsidies to build their profit model.
The relationship between hydrogen and fuel cells (stacks) is very dialectic. Hydrogen is the basis for the development of fuel cells. If the cost of hydrogen production decreases, it will inevitably drive the downstream hydrogen utilization industry’s development, and the commercialization process of fuel cells will also certainly accelerate. However, we cannot ignore the enormous reverse impact that fuel cells also have on the development of hydrogen energy. The advancement of fuel cell technology will increase the demand for hydrogen, making more people willing to invest more resources in the fields of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, and hydrogen transportation. Technological progress, economies of scale, and healthy competition will inevitably lead to a significant decrease in hydrogen’s cost, thereby accelerating the process of entering the hydrogen society.Looking up at the stars while staying grounded. Have confidence in the future while addressing the specific issues at hand. As a practitioner who has experienced the ups and downs of the industry for many years, I know how difficult it is for each and every practitioner. Whether it’s by perseverance or determination, many people still have a love for the hydrogen industry. Returning to the beginning of this article, when reporting in the media, please strive for objectivity and accuracy. This is a powerless appeal on behalf of hydrogen and fuel cell practitioners.
There is another small piece of news that many media outlets did not report, Toyota announced that they will launch 8 million pure electric vehicles, including lithium-ion battery vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles by 2030. According to Toyota’s definition, fuel cell vehicles belong to the category of pure electric vehicles.
Fuel cell vehicles, pure electric vehicles, as well as hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles are all effective means for the transportation industry to reach carbon peak and achieve carbon neutrality. Therefore, we sincerely hope that everyone can appreciate the strengths of each other and work together towards a common goal.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.