Don’t wait, buy it.
Today, Tesla officially decreased the price of the Standard Range Plus Model 3, a domestically produced upgrade version that meets Chinese standards, from the original price of 355,800 yuan to 323,800 yuan, down by 32,000 yuan.
At the same time, since the domestic version of the Model 3 has entered the national promotion catalog for new energy vehicles, it can enjoy a government subsidy of 24,750 yuan.
This means that the subsidized selling price of the domestic Model 3 is 299,050 yuan, and Tesla’s selling price in China has finally entered the price range of under 300,000 yuan.
For 299,050 yuan, you can buy a domestically produced Standard Range Plus Tesla Model 3 with a NEDC range of 445 km, and the standard basic version of Autopilot.
In addition to the price adjustment, the black exterior color of the Model 3 series has been shifted from 9500 yuan to free. The prices of pearl white, midnight silver metallic, deep sea blue, and red multi-coat exterior paint colors have all been adjusted to 8000 yuan, and the price of the 19-inch sport wheels has been reduced from 14,200 yuan to 6000 yuan.
Also, the wall charger for the Model 3 series has become an optional configuration, priced at 8000 yuan.
Q1: This is a question from a group of ultimate waiters, will the price of the domestically produced Model 3 be adjusted multiple times in the next year like the imported version? Is it worth buying now?
In conclusion: the price will eventually decrease, but it is worth buying now.
In an interview after the first employee delivery ceremony on December 30, 2019, a media outlet asked what the sales target would be next year.
Tesla China’s General Manager, Wang Hao responded, “We sell as many as we produce.”
The current production capacity of Shanghai factory has exceeded 1000 units/week (single-shift production). The first phase production capacity planning of Tesla Shanghai factory is 150,000 units/year. After the number of factory employees is adequate this year, it will start double-shift production every day. Therefore, it is a very easy thing to achieve a production volume of 100,000 domestically produced Model 3 this year.
In other words, domestic sales of 100,000 Model 3 this year will still put a lot of pressure on Tesla China.
If sales cannot meet expectations, price cuts (promotions) are inevitable.
Moreover, the domestication rate of Model 3 parts currently only accounts for 30%, which will reach 70% in the middle of the year and 100% at the end of the year.
Obviously, as the domestication rate of Model 3 parts continues to increase, production costs will gradually decrease, and it will naturally provide a certain amount of space for price reduction.
Moreover, according to sources, Tesla is still negotiating with CATL, and there is a high probability that Model 3 with CATL batteries will be produced in July. Therefore, in coordination with the gradually increasing domestication rate, the next round of price cuts may have to wait until July this year.
These are speculations based on factory production capacity and supply chain.
Let’s review the price adjustment process of the imported Model 3.
Taking the all-wheel-drive long-range version as an example.
In fact, from March 1st (no car owner made the transaction at the price of February 1st), the official guidance price has only decreased by 15,000 RMB.
Although there are promotions such as FSD and 3-year interest-free policies, in fact the most severe one was the exemption of purchase tax policy on August 30th, which was equivalent to a disguised price reduction of nearly 40,000 RMB.
However, the domestic Model 3 has entered the new energy vehicle model directory exempted from vehicle purchase tax on December 27th, so the disguised price reduction caused by the exemption of purchase tax will not occur on the domestic Model 3.
As for the FSD giveaway, we think the probability is already very small. As FSD functions continuously open up and increase in value, Tesla will not easily give away FSD unless it is absolutely necessary.
In addition, the news about national subsidy policies is not clear at present. According to previous news, the national new energy subsidy policy will officially be reduced in 2020, and the completely reduced point should be around the end of June.Even if there is another price cut, it is highly likely that it will be directly offset by subsidy reduction, and the actual transaction price will not vary too much.
In addition, if the time point for the complete subsidy reduction comes earlier, the transaction price may be higher instead, so it’s better to not buy too early.
Q2: What configuration should I buy if I urgently need to pick up my car?
A2: According to insiders, the car models to be delivered before the Spring Festival will mainly have three types of car paint: pearl white, cold light silver, and deep sea blue, and the wheel hub will mainly be 19 inches.
Q3: Is it necessary to install a home charging pile?
A3: Because the NEDC range of the standard upgraded version is 445 km, I recommend that car owners who have the conditions to install a home charging pile should do so, as having a home charging environment can greatly enhance the happiness of using an electric car.
If you think 8000 yuan is too expensive, you can take advantage of some car owners who do not use their new home charging pile on a second-hand market platform. The price is about 3000 yuan. If the seller’s pick-up time is within one year, you can also enjoy free installation.
Q4: Can I rely on Supercharging and not use a home charging pile? If Tesla sells 100,000 cars this year, will there be enough Supercharging points?
A4: Yes, Tesla plans to build 4,000 Supercharging stations in China in 2020.
To give you an idea, since Tesla entered China, it has built over 2,300 Supercharging stations in six years. In 2020 alone, it will build 4,000, while a large number of V2 Supercharging stations will also be upgraded to V3 Supercharging stations with faster charging speeds.
Let’s take a look at some data: There are currently a total of 750 Supercharging stations in the United States, while China will add 500 in 2020, plus the existing 300, the number of Supercharging stations in China will be directly comparable to that of the United States.
With a comprehensive energy replenishment system, coupled with Tesla’s Autopilot, the driving experience for electric vehicles on long-distance trips will also get better and better.
In addition, Tesla’s current referral policy allows car owners to share 1,500 km of free supercharging with a newly referred user. So if you can continue to refer new users, you can have free Supercharging.
By the way, if you have friends who plan to buy a Tesla, you are welcome to use our referral code: allen51722 (you can still use it even if you have already paid the deposit).
Q5: Speaking of long-distance trips, should I buy FSD?A5: Currently, the basic Autopilot is sufficient to meet the needs of most users, and the additional features of FSD, such as NoA, automatic lane change with turn signal, and Smart Summon, are more of a show of technology.
For users who frequently require high-speed driving and are willing to try new things, they can opt for FSD.
In addition, everyone needs to be prepared that the price of FSD will continue to rise as its capabilities improve. It has already increased from $6,000 to $7,000 in foreign countries.
Q6: Finally, who is suitable for buying the domestic standard long-range upgrade model?
A6: For friends who have home charging conditions and do not have frequent long-distance commuting needs, buying a Tesla Model 3 with NEDC range of 445 km for less than 300,000 RMB is a great value.
However, if your driving scenario includes a lot of long-distance driving exceeding 300 km, I would recommend you to buy the long-range version. After all, the NEDC of the standard long-range upgrade version is only 445 km, and its actual high-speed endurance is probably only around 300 km, while the long-range version can reach 450 km.
As for when the long-range version will be domestically produced, we do not know, but it is certain that it will not be mass-produced in the near future. The focus of Tesla’s Shanghai factory now is on the standard long-range upgrade of Model 3, and the same is true for Model Y in the short term.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.