On the afternoon of January 16th, 2021, the senior forum of the China Electric Vehicle 100-People Forum was opened in Beijing. Ouyang Minggao, the Vice Chairman of China Electric Vehicle 100-People Forum and a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, delivered a speech on “Innovation and Development of New Energy Vehicles for Carbon Neutrality”.
2020 was a milestone year for the development of new energy vehicles. The new energy vehicle industry made a U-turn, and the goal of the New Energy Vehicle Plan (2012-2020) was successfully achieved.
This year was the first year for new energy vehicles to enter homes in large-scale. It was also a turning point for the transition from policy-driven to market-driven development, and a year of positive policies for new energy vehicle development, especially with President Xi Jinping proposing the grand ambitions of achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, which injected a strong drive for the sustainable development of new energy vehicles. Therefore, I would like to discuss the historical direction of China’s new energy vehicle development from the perspective of the background of automotive power and energy revolution.
As we know, every energy revolution first invents power devices and transportation tools to drive the development and utilization of energy resources, which in turn triggers an industrial revolution. In the first energy revolution, the power device was the steam engine, the energy was coal, the transportation tool was the train, and it was a time when Britain surpassed the Netherlands. In the second energy revolution, the power device was the internal combustion engine, the energy was oil and gas, the energy carrier was gasoline and diesel, the transportation tool was the car, and it was a time when the United States surpassed Britain.
We are now in the third energy revolution, where various batteries serve as power devices. The energy comes from renewable energy, and there are two energy carriers, electricity and hydrogen, with electric vehicles as the transportation tool. Therefore, this might be a chance for China to catch up with other countries.
So what is the fourth industrial revolution? From my personal understanding, it is based on renewable energy for greening and on digital networks for intelligence.
I would like to discuss new energy vehicles from three aspects from the perspectives of energy and industrial revolution. The first is the new progress in power electrification, or the electric vehicle revolution. The second is a new demand for energy decarbonization, which is the new energy revolution. Finally, there is a new trend towards system intelligence, which is the artificial intelligence revolution.
First, the new progress in power electrification
Power electrification has been carried out in China for 20 years, and we are all familiar with it. What I want to emphasize is that the invention of lithium-ion batteries has achieved a historic breakthrough in the field of energy storage, and the industrialization of a new generation of automotive power batteries and electrochemical energy systems such as hydrogen fuel cells is also a historic breakthrough in automotive power in the past century.
Next, I would like to talk about some new developments in this regard in recent years.
First, the technological innovation of China’s pure electric vehicle power batteries is very active. The mode of technological innovation in China’s power batteries has transformed from government-led to market-driven, from industry and politics to enterprise and commerce. We know that there have been many recent press conferences regarding battery innovation, which is a normal commercial operation, but it cannot be excessive, otherwise it will become speculation.## Second, China’s battery material research is at the forefront of the world. However, battery material innovation is a process of accumulation and requires long-term efforts, as it aims to balance contradictory performance indicators such as specific energy, life, fast charging, safety, and cost. If someone claims that their car can run 1,000 kilometers, recharge in a few minutes, is extremely safe, and very low-cost, don’t believe them, as it is currently impossible to achieve all of these performance indicators simultaneously. It is worth noting that the structural innovation of the battery system, combined with the improvement of the battery cell materials, has become a distinctive feature of China’s power battery technology innovation in recent years.
We used the data of electric vehicle models from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to draw a graph. The horizontal axis represents the total energy of the battery system, and the vertical axis represents the range. The total energy of the battery pack and its corresponding range are constantly increasing, moving towards a range of 1,000 kilometers. Initially, the main battery was lithium iron phosphate, and the range was relatively low as ternary power batteries had not yet been industrialized. With the industrialization of ternary batteries with high volume energy density, the energy of the battery pack has increased significantly, and the electric car market has begun launching, increasing the range, but it was still not particularly high. In recent years, due to safety concerns, the improvement of the specific energy of ternary batteries has not been significantly increased, so the industry has turned to structural innovation of the battery system.
As you can see from the graph, the red arrow represents the performance of ternary cells. In recent years, some improvements have been made by doping lithium or silicon and adopting liquid-solid hybrid electrolytes. At present, the energy density of ternary square cells can reach 300 Wh/kg, and soft packs using liquid-solid hybrid electrolytes can reach 360 Wh/kg, equivalent to 320-330 Wh/kg of square cells. Currently, lithium iron phosphate batteries can also reach over 200 Wh/kg after doping. For passenger cars, the critical point is to increase the specific energy of the battery system, allowing for more batteries to fit into the limited space of the car. The battery system structure has evolved from the original 355 and 590 modules to Ningde Times’ CTP (cell-to-pack) module-free system, especially BYD’s blade battery module-free system, which greatly improves the grouping efficiency of the battery structure, and the volume-specific energy ratio from the cell to the system has increased from 0.4 to 0.6, which means that the volume specific grouping efficiency of a system has increased from 40 percent to 60 percent, a 50 percent increase. This is a huge change that has effectively solved the problem of insufficient range of cars powered by lithium iron phosphate batteries, enabling a range of up to 600 kilometers. Most recently, Guoxuan introduced J2M, where the battery core is directly connected to the module, which is also a significant achievement of China’s battery industry in leading international battery technology development.
Looking ahead, it is possible that the battery pack may directly serve as a structural component of the chassis (such as a blade battery pack) or the cell may be directly integrated into the vehicle, among other possibilities. I believe that there is still considerable room for research and innovation in these areas.Although a range of one thousand kilometers is not our main goal, the energy demand of electric cars is definitely on the rise. For example, the recent problem of shortened winter range is actually an energy issue. If you have a long-range electric car, you won’t worry about any discount. Of course, more important is to improve the energy-saving level of the electric car by enhancing the overall integration technology of the car. Why is the problem of shortened winter range so severe? Firstly, the performance of electric cell declines significantly at low temperatures, and the energy consumption of heating is greater than that of cooling. Secondly, the efficiency of the powertrain subsystem decreases, such as the loss of the regenerative braking energy feedback function, and the increase of the rolling resistance. Thirdly, the accuracy of range estimation decreases, which easily leads to customer anxiety and bad user experience.
Overall, the Chinese electric vehicle adaptation technology has urgent demands for innovation. I will briefly propose some directions for technical innovation and improvement:
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Optimize the efficiency of the battery thermal management system, including PTC heaters, heat pump air conditioning, and motor excitation heating. Currently, PTC heating needs further improvement by the cloud-based control to preheat in advance. The efficiency of heat pump air conditioning at low temperatures needs to be further enhanced. Motor excitation heating is also a good solution, which heats the battery by forming a loop by the motor coils and the battery when the motor is stationary. However, the noise is high and the heating rate is only 3°C per minute. Now, there are improved technologies that can increase the heating rate to 8°C per minute.
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Comprehensive utilization of powertrain energy under winter driving conditions, including using the waste heat generated by the motor to heat the battery, and using surplus power that cannot be fed back for PTC heating.
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Gun insulation and pulse heating for electric vehicle batteries in charging scenarios. Currently, people usually plug in the cable to charge, and after it’s fully charged, they unplug it. However, in order to charge orderly later, it is not necessary to charge as soon as the cable is plugged in, usually late night charging is preferred. In addition, vehicle-grid interaction (V2G), which is the feedback of surplus electric power back to the grid, requires the charging pile to be continuously connected to the car, making gun insulation convenient to use for preheating the car with grid power half an hour before driving. In addition, fast charging pile with bidirectional charging function can pulse heat the battery. Technological innovation in this area is active and the problem of shortened winter range will be gradually alleviated.
There is also the issue of the thermal safety of power batteries that have not been fundamentally resolved yet. The thermal safety problem of the battery is essentially caused by the thermal runaway (temperature runaway) of the battery caused by the self-heat chain reaction of the battery, which will not be discussed in detail here. Overall, the research on the safety of Chinese power batteries is ahead of the world in terms of scientific and technological research on thermal runaway.The key to safety in the automotive industry lies in three aspects: intrinsic safety, passive safety, and active safety. Intrinsic safety starts with the mechanism of thermal runaway in single cells and ensures safety from the perspective of material and design during the manufacturing process. Passive safety involves managing the system’s heat through insulation and heat dissipation to prevent the spread of thermal runaway within the battery pack so that it stays non-combustible. The current regulation requires it to be non-combustible for five minutes, while the aim is to reach half an hour in the future. Chinese leading companies have already released non-combustible battery packs, which represent a significant technological advancement. Active safety involves intelligent battery management and charging control, such as using cloud platforms and big data to provide advance warning signs of thermal runaway, which are a core technology that automakers must master. Leading manufacturers are already capable of doing it and are currently promoting its widespread application.
Overall, safety is an eternal theme in the automotive industry, and we should not expect that just changing to a new battery will entirely solve the issue since safety is relative and depends on the safety technology assurance.
Now, let’s discuss the status and trend of hydrogen fuel cell technology.
After years of arduous efforts, China’s fuel cell technology for vehicles has achieved industrial breakthroughs in recent years. It should be noted that the development of hydrogen fuel cell technology research started earlier than lithium-ion battery technology. After 20 years of research and several setbacks, significant strides have been made in recent years.
Data statistics show that compared to five years ago, all major performance indicators have significantly improved, such as the core indicator of fuel cell life, which has increased by 300%. The domestic fuel cell component industry chain has been established, and system integration capabilities have significantly improved, leading to the formation of leading companies in the field. The next crucial step is to reduce the cost of fuel cell systems by more than 80% in the next ten years. Lithium-ion batteries experienced ten years of such development in the past, but fuel cell technology has lagged behind by ten years. The system cost should reduce from 5000 yuan/kW in 2020 to 600 yuan/kW in 2030. As you may know, our industry has begun waging a price war during the current period. Honestly, I don’t think that starting a price war now is a good idea, and it should decrease steadily. Overall, this cost reduction is entirely foreseeable. However, it is essential to reduce the cost of hydrogen storage onboard the vehicle for fuel cell cars, which I predict will relatively be slower than reducing the cost of fuel cell technology. A carbon fiber-wrapped plastic liner high-pressure hydrogen storage tank with a pressure of 700 atm has been put into production domestically. The current cost is still high due to the initial production phase. It is expected that by 2025, the cost of a hydrogen cylinder that stores one kilogram of hydrogen will be 3,000 yuan. The primary material cost is from carbon fiber, and Sinopec has already built a large high-strength carbon fiber factory to solve this issue.Look ahead to the technological roadmap of hydrogen fuel cell. The goal for 2025 is to promote 50,000 to 100,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, mainly for commercial vehicles. From 2030 to 2035, the application scale will reach 800,000 to 1 million vehicles. Under this circumstance, the hydrogen demand is approximately 3 million tons by 2030, which is possibly lower than expected, considering the prediction is mainly based on commercial vehicles, rather than passenger cars. However, the number of hydrogen refueling stations may be higher than expected because the efficiency of hydrogen refueling is lower than natural gas and hydrogen is the lightest gas, only 1/8 of the density of natural gas. The current development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles still faces some challenges, such as the gap between the level of independence and technology of the hydrogen fuel industry chain and fuel cells; the need for improvement in electrolysis green hydrogen technology, hydrogen storage and transportation technology and hydrogen safety technology; and the overall high cost of hydrogen fuel, which must be resolved over the next 5-10 years.
Comparing different types of automotive power sources, the power efficiency of the three types of electric vehicles is much higher than traditional gasoline vehicles when considering energy conversion efficiency from oil wells to wheels based on fossil energy. However, the energy efficiency of pure electric, fuel cell and hybrid vehicles based on fossil energy does not differ greatly. In this case, hybrid vehicles are actually a very reasonable choice based on fossil energy. Why do we need pure electric and fuel cell vehicles? This question needs to be viewed from the perspective of the next energy revolution – the new requirement for low-carbon energy.
Second, the New Requirement for Low-Carbon Energy
There are five pillars to the third energy revolution recognized internationally. First, transitioning to renewable energy sources. Second, transitioning from centralized to distributed power, where buildings become micro power plants. In Beijing, subsidies for photovoltaic power generation have been introduced, and the roof of the automobile research institute I work for is already covered in photovoltaic panels. Tsinghua University plans to cover most rooftops with photovoltaic panels. Third, storing intermittent energy with technologies such as hydrogen and batteries, because renewable energy is intermittent and fluctuating. Fourth, developing energy internet technology to link distributed energy. Fifth, electric vehicles become the terminal for energy use, storage, and feedback.
Therefore, batteries, hydrogen, and electric vehicles are important components of the new energy revolution. President Xi Jinping proposed the major strategic goal of low-carbon development by 2030/2060 and energy revolution. China has advantages in photovoltaic and wind power globally, which are now ready for larger-scale promotion; however, energy storage is a bottleneck and requires solutions such as batteries, hydrogen, and electric vehicles. It logically follows that only the large-scale development of new energy vehicles can realize the new energy revolution, and only the realization of the new energy revolution can achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal. Here’s an explanation for this logic.The renewable energy carriers that are currently being developed are mainly wind and solar power, with electricity and hydrogen as their carriers. First of all, electricity is generated by converting photovoltaic and wind turbines. Photovoltaics are also a revolutionary technology, and currently, the efficiency of silicon-based solar cells sold on the market is around 22%. In areas with good lighting conditions in the western part of China, the cost of large-scale photovoltaic power generation is about one cent. Next, silicon-based photovoltaics will be further combined with perovskite to utilize visible and near-infrared light to further improve efficiency to above 30%. Perovskite has made remarkable progress in the past 10 years, increasing its efficiency from 3% to almost 30% in laboratories today. It can be combined with single-crystal silicon to make compound photovoltaic cells. The International Energy Agency believes that photovoltaics will be the most cost-effective source of energy, so technological innovation is currently very active.
Secondly, hydrogen is another renewable energy carrier. There are only two carriers for renewable energy: electricity and hydrogen. Facing carbon neutrality, hydrogen-powered cars are only a part of hydrogen utilization, or a pioneering part. Hydrogen is not only for cars, but also for driving the comprehensive development of hydrogen energy. The transportation industry has the best tolerance for hydrogen prices, and in the future, hydrogen will also be used in steelmaking, chemical industry, power generation, and large gas turbine generators.
Hydrogen is currently mainly produced by electrolysis of water. Electrolytic hydrogen and fuel cells mentioned earlier are exactly the opposite process. Hydrogen and oxygen combine to produce water and generate electricity, but with electricity and water, hydrogen and oxygen can also be produced. Therefore, reducing the cost of fuel cells can help reduce the cost of producing hydrogen, as these are two aspects of the same problem. There are currently three main types of fuel cells, and therefore three main methods of producing hydrogen: alkaline fuel cells correspond to alkaline electrolysis, proton exchange membrane fuel cells correspond to proton membrane electrolysis, and solid oxide fuel cells correspond to solid oxide electrolysis, and their technological maturity varies. Alkaline electrolysis technology is currently mature and has a price advantage in China, while proton exchange membrane electrolysis technology is undergoing commercialization. I believe that in 5-10 years, proton exchange membrane electrolysis technology will develop on a large scale. The future generation under development is solid oxide electrolysis technology, because of its extremely high efficiency. The cost of producing hydrogen from renewable energy sources is closely related to the price of renewable energy. Currently, at Zhangjiakou’s wind-powered hydrogen production, the electricity cost is 1.5 cents per kWh, and the hydrogen power consumption cost is about 7 yuan per kilogram of hydrogen.
In addition, there are many other carriers of hydrogen, such as liquid ammonia, which is used to make urea. Its quality hydrogen storage rate can reach 17.8%, and its hydrogen storage density is higher, with 100 liters of liquid ammonia producing over 12 kilograms of hydrogen, which is more than twice as high as that of liquid hydrogen, which can produce about 6 kilograms per 100 liters. Therefore, many new concepts such as the “ammonia economy” and “nitrogen circulation” are emerging internationally. Ammonia can be used directly for products such as fertilizers and plastics, as well as for power generation. The process of producing ammonia is to first produce hydrogen by electricity, then capture nitrogen from the air, and combine nitrogen and hydrogen to produce ammonia. Traditional industrial catalytic synthesis of ammonia can also be used or new electrocatalytic synthesis of ammonia technology is under development.There is a type of fuel called E-FUEL, which is produced by using renewable energy to generate electricity in Europe, especially in Germany. In China, it is called “Liquid Sunshine,” and it has been quite popular recently. Electrically synthesized fuels can be various types of gasoline, but in China, “Liquid Sunshine” mainly refers to methanol. Methanol can be synthesized by combining hydrogen and carbon dioxide, and then dimethyl ether can be synthesized using methanol as an intermediate product. Alternatively, synthesis gas composed of hydrogen and carbon monoxide can be produced intermediate products by the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis process, which can be subsequently modified into isomers and produce gasoline and other final products. This technological route does not require infrastructure for fuel use, but it does require a large amount of infrastructure for production. Producing one liter of oil requires 2.9-3.6 kilograms of carbon dioxide, which can be energy-intensive if captured from the air. However, when used as a fuel for combustion, carbon dioxide is released back into the atmosphere. If used in a hydrogen fuel cell, methanol must be reformed to obtain hydrogen and carbon dioxide through chemical reactions. In this case, methanol is actually used as a storage method for hydrogen.
Therefore, a complete energy efficiency analysis based on renewable energy systems is required. According to Shell’s research report, the energy efficiency of charging electric vehicles is about 77%, while that of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is about 30%. This is because the efficiency of hydrogen production is over 60%, and the efficiency of fuel cells is between 50-60%. When these two factors are multiplied together, the result is over 30%. Pure electric vehicles do not have this process and are the simplest and most direct option. Using electrically synthesized fuels in internal combustion engine vehicles results in an efficiency of 13%. If the electricity price is the same, the overall difference in energy efficiency is mainly a cost issue. For renewable energy, it is not primarily an energy-saving or emission problem, but a cost problem. Therefore, charging electric batteries is generally better than using hydrogen fuel cells for most tasks. However, there are still many application scenarios where charging batteries are not enough.
Furthermore, is it possible that the electricity price for hydrogen production is cheaper than the electricity price for charging? This is possible. This is the third point I want to discuss: the new trend of system intelligence and the artificial intelligence revolution. Conclusions must be drawn from a system’s perspective.
Renewable energy systems must have energy storage equipment and large-scale generator units that provide basic power. Currently, these large-scale generator units use fossil fuels, but in the future, they could use hydrogen or liquid ammonia. In a smart renewable energy system, load, power, energy storage, and the network interact with each other, and the electricity price is determined by the coupled dynamic process of energy flow and information flow in the system. From a link perspective, the main cost of renewable energy may not necessarily be in the power generation stage but could be in other stages, such as energy storage. Therefore, energy storage is the key.
In terms of power and storage time, batteries are medium-to-small power, short-cycle storage. They are suitable for matching with distributed photovoltaics, but not necessarily for some large-scale wind power plants. In scenarios where there is wind this month but no wind next month, hydrogen is the main solution. Hydrogen is suitable for long-term, large-scale storage, so these two types of energy storage must be combined to form a total energy storage system.# Battery Energy Storage Technology
With the increasing demand for power batteries driven by the electric vehicle market, battery production in China may reach an annual output of 1 billion kilowatt hours by 2025. Lithium-ion batteries, as the representative of power batteries, are becoming the best choice for distributed, short-cycle, small-scale renewable energy storage. The industry is huge, and costs will continue to decline.
If we develop to 100 million charging electric vehicles in about ten years, the total energy of the car batteries will reach 50 to 60 billion kilowatt hours, which has enormous energy storage potential. However, it should also be noted that charging power is huge, but power consumption is not very high, which is a noticeable characteristic.
To illustrate an extreme scenario, if all 300 million Chinese passenger cars are converted to pure electric cars, with an average of 65 kilowatt hours per car, the capacity of on-board energy storage is about 20 billion kilowatt hours, which is equivalent to China’s total daily electricity consumption. If 10% of the 30 million electric cars are charged at an average rate of 50 kilowatts, the total charging power will be 1.5 billion kilowatts, which is equivalent to the national grid’s total installed capacity. It is impossible to charge all of these electric cars with the power from the electric grid. Based on an average driving distance of 20,000 kilometers per car per year, the power consumption of 300 million cars per day is about 2 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 10 percent of the total power consumption, which is completely acceptable.
The advantage of large-scale promotion of electric vehicles is the huge energy storage potential, while the problem lies in the huge charging power. To mitigate this issue, we should first use the energy storage potential to suppress grid fluctuations. According to a research report from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the total power load fluctuation in Beijing from 2020 to 2030 will be between 15 million kilowatts and 33 million kilowatts. If the energy storage of 5 million electric vehicles is used, the range of grid load fluctuations can be reduced to between 2 million and 2.2 million kilowatts. However, if 60,000 electric cars charge at 350 kilowatts from the grid at the same time, the total charging power will exceed 20 million kilowatts, which is almost equal to the total grid load of Beijing. Therefore, intelligent charging methods such as orderly charging, bidirectional charging between cars and the grid, energy storage and discharge, battery swapping, and integrated charging and swapping must be adopted to greatly reduce the charging power.
In my opinion, for commercial passenger vehicles such as shared cars and taxis, battery swapping is generally a good business model. However, the best use case for battery swapping may still be medium and heavy-duty electric trucks. These trucks can use a fast energy supply station that combines charging and swapping. The reserve battery pack used for battery swapping of heavy-duty trucks can be used for fast charging of passenger cars, forming a complementary relationship. The ultimate form will be a multi-energy complementary microgrid system of “generation-storage-charging-swapping”.At present, electric truck battery swapping has been launched in China, and from an economic perspective, I personally believe that it can be justified. In some special scenarios, such as ports and coal mines, the implementation has been successful and now it is necessary to realize it on highways. This type of swapping only takes three to five minutes, with battery dissociation and rental, and the batteries are held by battery banks. Larger battery banks have higher power consumption and accurate load forecasting, enabling low electricity prices in electricity trading. Additionally, purchasing large quantities of batteries can also lower battery prices. The overall life cycle management of the battery can also extend battery life and increase utilization.
Now the key is standard regulations. Standard regulations for electric car battery swapping are difficult to implement because various car brands have different demands, making it difficult for both low-end and high-end markets to swap batteries. However, this is not a major issue for trucks.
Furthermore, battery swapping emerged because of the slow charging and inconvenience for charging. There are still doubts about fast charging for private cars. It should be emphasized that for private cars, charging is still more promising based on the development of vehicle-network integration and high-power fast charging technology, as well as the trend towards integrated battery chassis design. Slow charging can be done at home or at work (the potential for installing slow charging piles at work has not yet been fully explored), and it can also interact with the network. Currently, State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Company is demonstrating network interaction, whereby volunteers’ cars can both charge and discharge electricity through State Grid Electric’s background dispatch system. They can sell electricity at a high price and purchase it at a low price, and the cost of electricity can be balanced or even profitable. In other words, after buying an electric car, energy costs will tend towards zero or even generate profits in the future.
However, during long trips on highways, there must be a super-fast charging measure. When is super-fast charging appropriate? Generally, safety accidents occur when the battery is above 80% charge, and it rarely occurs for charge below 50%. This can be explained by electrochemical mechanisms. When the battery is fully charged, most of the lithium ions in the positive electrode material run out, and the structural stability is the worst. After the lithium ions are embedded in the negative electrode, the battery expands, leading to increased internal stress and hidden risks of internal short circuits. In addition, inconsistencies in the fully charged battery pack are exposed, and if not properly managed, individual cells with low battery capacity may have already been overcharged, causing lithium deposition. These situations do not generally occur when the battery is below 50% charge. Emergency charging only occurs when the battery is low, and it is only for replacing power, not for full charging.In 2020, CEC announced the new high-power fast charging standard – Ultra-Fast Charging Standard, which was jointly developed by China and Japan. It is expected that Ultra-Fast Charging service will be fully available by 2025. Our team’s research shows that it is completely feasible to emergency charge a car with a range of 600 km to increase 200 km (or 1/3 of the battery’s capacity) with 5 minutes’ charging. However, it is generally impossible to fully charge a car with a range of 200 km in 5 minutes, unless it uses fast-charging batteries with special negative electrodes, such as lithium titanate batteries. In addition, the temperature of the battery rises rapidly during emergency charging, and it is necessary to enhance cooling. Also, in winter, heating is required before fast-charging. The low-temperature pulse heating technology of the charging station can achieve a temperature rise of 8°C per minute. These technologies are currently under development. We are working with the State Grid to select highways to demonstrate these technologies.
Now let’s talk about hydrogen energy. Hydrogen energy is the best way to achieve large-scale, long-term storage of centralized renewable energy. The reasons are as follows:
Firstly, the full utilization of energy. Hydrogen energy’s high-capacity and long-term energy storage mode enables more fully utilization of renewable energy. For example, some batteries cannot store seasonal hydropower in Sichuan, but hydrogen energy can. Therefore, it is possible for the cost of producing hydrogen to be cheaper than the cost of charging.
Secondly, the economic advantage of scale storage. The cost of fixed hydrogen storage under a car is estimated to be about one order of magnitude lower than that of fixed battery storage.
Thirdly, the complementarity to the basic power source of the power grid. Hydrogen energy can be used as a high-capacity, long-term, and flexible energy source, such as for fuel cell power generation or large hydrogen gas turbine power generation. The power grid cannot be all wind power and photovoltaics. In the early stage of Germany’s energy transformation, due to immature energy storage technology, most of the traditional power generation units had to be retained as a flexible energy source for regulating and stabilizing the power grid, which resulted in expensive electricity prices. Now, energy storage can reduce the scale of traditional units, but it cannot decrease it too much. A basic power source is needed, and hydrogen can play a major role in this.
Finally, the flexibility of hydrogen production, storage, and transportation. China’s large-scale centralized renewable energy bases are located in remote areas such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia. Hydrogen in these areas needs to be transported over a distance of thousands of kilometers. At the same time, the transport channels for green hydrogen and ultra-high-voltage electrical transmission overlap, which can take advantage of China’s super-high-voltage transmission technology and also produce hydrogen locally for long-distance transportation. From the perspective of energy storage, these two methods are not significantly different. The key issue is which one has better economic efficiency. Our preliminary analysis found that the local hydrogen production plan for long-distance power transmission is generally more advantageous. Based on the calculation of 8 cents/kWh for ultra-high-voltage electrical transmission, as introduced by the electricity experts, the hydrogen filling price of about 30 yuan/kg could be achieved when the cost of renewable energy generation is about 0.1 yuan/kWh, which is price competitive with diesel. This leads to a uniquely Chinese long-distance hydrogen transmission plan, which takes advantage of China’s energy interconnection network.Looking forward to the construction of intelligent energy ecosystem for transportation in the next ten years, there are roughly two combinations. One is the golden combination of distributed photovoltaics + batteries + electric vehicles + Internet of Things + blockchain; the other one is the silver combination of centralized long-distance wind and photovoltaics + hydrogen energy storage and generation + fuel cell vehicles + Internet of Things + blockchain. One is a distributed smart energy and the other is centralized smart energy. Both combine to form a future smart energy system that is geared towards carbon neutrality.
In conclusion, we are ushering in the third energy revolution and the fourth industrial revolution. Over 100 years ago, the second energy revolution triggered the transformation from carriages to cars and the great prosperity of the oil industry. The main transformation period began around 1900 and lasted for about 25 years. Now, the third energy revolution is upon us. I estimate that similar to the transition from carriages to cars, the transportation equipment and energy-related industries will undergo unprecedented changes in the next 20-30 years. Let us welcome the fourth industrial revolution together, which is based on renewable energy and digital networks for greening and intelligence.
Thank you all!
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.