Author | Nie Yiyao
After five years from its release to delivery, Tesla’s first pure electric traction truck Semi was officially delivered to PepsiCo at the Tesla Nevada factory on the evening of December 1, local time, with the first batch of 100 deliveries.
When fully loaded, this Semi weighs about 82,000 pounds (about 37 tons) and has a range of 500 miles (about 804.7 kilometers) when fully loaded. As for the specific price, Musk did not announce it at the delivery site, but he said in 2017 that the price of the version is $180,000 (about CNY 1.25 million).
The delivery of Semi indicates that Tesla has officially entered the emerging electric truck market, and “Semi will truly change the development trend of commercial vehicles”, said Musk, who appeared in person driving Semi.
After succeeding in becoming a shark in pure electric passenger vehicles, will Tesla once again successfully disrupt the global commercial vehicle market?
The Automotive Observer discussed this issue with many people in the commercial vehicle industry and companies. Some people said yes, some people think there will be an impact, and some people said it will not happen in the short term. Tesla needs to make a mark in the commercial vehicle market dominated by China and the United States, and it will take at least 5-8 years.
Performance advantage: “It’s a beast”
What kind of truck is Semi?
“It’s a beast,” described by Musk, “If you’re a truck driver and you want the most powerful truck on the road, this is it.”
Perhaps this confident statement comes from Semi’s excellent performance.
According to reports, Semi is the first vehicle to use a 1000V electric drive architecture, equipped with a three-motor powertrain, and the comprehensive output power of the motor exceeds 1000 horsepower, which is three times that of traditional diesel trucks of the same type. This allows Semi to accelerate from 0 to 60 mph (about 96.6 kilometers per hour) when fully loaded (about 37 tons) in just 20 seconds.
Moreover, in uphill sections with a slope of 5%, Semi can continue to travel at a speed of 65 mph, easily surpassing traditional diesel trucks that can only drive up to 45 mph.
Fast is only one aspect of Semi, and its endurance performance is also unbeatable.5 years ago, Tesla announced that the Semi, when fully loaded with a weight of approximately 82,000 pounds (about 37 tons), could travel 500 miles (about 804.7 kilometers).
To verify the real-world range of this massive vehicle, Tesla conducted road tests by driving it from the California Fremont factory to San Diego. Results showed that after traveling 800 kilometers through a plain at an altitude of 100 feet (30 meters) and a highland of 4,136 feet (1,236 meters), the Semi still had 7% battery remaining.
Energy Efficiency: Pay off within 3 Years
Five years ago, the futuristic design of the Semi was very eye-catching and subverted traditional truck design.
Elon Musk stated that thanks to the Semi’s bullet-like shape, its drag coefficient is only 0.36Cd, which is comparable to that of a sedan and much better than the drag coefficient of traditional diesel trucks (0.65-0.7).
Thus, even when fully loaded, the Semi consumes less than 2 kWh per mile (1.6 kilometers) and has an energy consumption of about 125 kWh per 100 kilometers. Based on the latest US average electricity price of about 8 cents per kWh, the energy consumption cost of the Semi per 100 kilometers is about $10.
According to Tesla’s calculations, despite being more expensive than a diesel truck, the Semi can save $200,000 compared to a traditional diesel truck within 3 years, thanks to its lower energy consumption and excellent cost-effectiveness, which is equivalent to the cost of one truck.
In fact, data shows that in 2019, the average fuel cost of diesel trucks in the United States was about $19.5 per 100 kilometers. Since the summer of 2022, truck drivers and transportation companies across the United States have been coping with rising diesel prices.
The American Automobile Association (AAA) said that one year ago, the average price of one gallon of diesel was $3.65, but now it has risen to $5.33. Higher fuel prices combined with a shortage of truck drivers are damaging the entire trucking industry.
In terms of operating costs, the Semi does have economic advantages far beyond those of diesel trucks.
Megacharger, the V4 Supercharger King
With the delivery of the Semi, information about the fourth-generation DC rapid-charging station (V4) that it is compatible with has also been released.
This V4 charger, named Megacharger, boasts a brand new wire structure design, which is a huge upgrade from its predecessor, V3.
Apart from the two independent cooling pipes, V4 also features a layer of cooling structure on the outside of its high-voltage cable that guarantees higher efficiency than V3 in terms of cooling. With the capability of handling up to 35A per square millimeter of current load, V4 is able to provide a maximum charging power of 1000kw.
Previously, Tesla announced that Megacharger could recharge the Semi to 70% in just 30 minutes. Based on the calculation that the Semi consumes less than 2kWh per mile with a driving range of 500 miles, a 30-minute charging time can increase the driving range by around 350 miles (approximately 560 km).
As part of Tesla’s plan, Megacharger is set to begin official deployment in 2023 following the formal delivery and use of Semi. If Megacharger, which is regarded as an energy supplement tool, can be deployed quickly, it will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the orders of Semi.
Bonus: Intelligent Driving
In contrast to previous Tesla’s press conferences, Musk did not mention any information regarding the intelligent driving aspect of Semi at the delivery ceremony.
However, as far back as when Semi was launched in 2017, Musk revealed that Semi would be equipped with Autopilot. A few details were also exposed, indicating that intelligent driving would be an important driving force for Tesla’s all-electric heavy-duty truck to break into the truck transportation industry.
For instance, the single-person driving cabin and the central layout of seats in Semi are far from an accidental design.
Traditionally, heavy-duty trucks have been designed with multiple seats, with most of them featuring sleeping berths for drivers to take rest during their shifts to avoid driver fatigue during long-distance driving.
Tesla, on the other hand, abandoned the passenger seat and left only one seat in the driving cabin, indicating that Semi only requires one driver to complete long-distance transportation tasks. Furthermore, the driving efficiency of vehicles that cover the same transportation distance can also be improved.
This greatly reduces the operating cost pressure for freight companies who are worried about rising fuel prices and a shortage of truck drivers.
Of course, the pressure on freight companies is not transferred to the drivers, but is borne by the intelligent driving and excellent performance of the vehicles.
From the footage released in the Semi promotional video, it can be seen that the Semi has a 360-degree external monitoring function, which is also displayed on the 15-inch large screen homepage on the left and right sides of the steering wheel.
News exposed on foreign websites shows that the Semi has a total of 10 cameras, including three cameras on the upper and lower edges of the front windshield. Such powerful forward perception hardware is believed to enable the implementation of Autopilot driving assistance to help reduce driver stress, and is also preparing for future autonomous driving “team travel” to further reduce labor costs.
Entering a New Blue Ocean: Here Comes BYD Again
Musk once publicly mocked BYD for having no technological barriers and not being able to see any BYD cars on the road in an interview.
However, now Tesla’s biggest competitor is no longer other foreign automakers, but BYD. This is not only reflected in the field of new energy passenger vehicles, but also when Tesla brings Semi into the commercial vehicle market and enters the new blue ocean of electric trucks, it also encounters BYD.
Due to consistent global carbon reduction goals, rising energy costs, and other reasons, the electric truck field has become active in recent years.
According to BCG Consulting’s estimate, the global electric truck market size will be 12.607 billion yuan by 2022. Among them, the domestic electric truck market capacity is 4.662 billion yuan. The global electric truck market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 51.36% and reach 152.373 billion yuan by 2028.
At the delivery ceremony of Semi, Musk first introduced why Tesla has developed an all-electric truck. He said that in the United States, the number of trucks is only about 1% of the total number of cars, but the carbon emissions from trucks account for 20%, and the proportion of particulate matter emissions is as high as 36%. The impact on the environment is very obvious, so it is necessary to launch an electric truck.
In fact, global commercial vehicle companies such as Daimler and Volvo, as well as BYD, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Nikola, and Tesla, are all actively deploying in the electric truck field.
Particularly BYD, which has delivered 15,000 pure electric trucks to several dozen countries and regions in North America, Europe and Asia in the past two years. Moreover, BYD’s pure electric heavy trucks have achieved a sales price of 1-2 million RMB (about $155,000 to $310,000) through strength in the European and American markets.
Tesla and BYD are bound to have a competition in the commercial vehicle market.
Semi’s weakness: battery and energy supplement
Perhaps feeling that it cannot be avoided, Musk mentioned before the beginning of the Semi delivery ceremony that “it has been five years since the launch of the vehicle.”
He also joked at the end of the press conference that “five years is not a short time, but Semi will bring revolution on the highway.”
Semi made its debut in November 2017. Musk said that Semi would start production and delivery in 2019. Shortly after the press conference, Semi received orders from PepsiCo, Walmart and Anheuser-Busch InBev.
However, due to parts shortages, Tesla postponed the production plan of Semi. In 2020, Tesla announced that the production of Semi would be delayed until 2021 due to the reasons mentioned above.
In March 2021, Musk said in a tweet that “tight battery cell supply has affected the production of Semi.” In the third quarter of 2021, Tesla officials stated that due to the global supply chain shortage in the automotive industry and the limited production capacity of Tesla’s 4680 battery, the production time of Semi will be delayed until 2022.
Semi has suffered from the shortage of parts in the supply chain, and it has been delayed many times before mass production. Next, due to factors such as the “battery shortage” and the soaring price of batteries, Tesla is unlikely to produce Semi on a large scale before solving the battery supply problem.
Because the 1,000 kWh power battery that supports Semi’s 800-kilometer endurance is very expensive.
Calculating based on the Model 3 battery cost of 87,000 RMB, Semi’s power battery cost is 16.6 times that of the 60 kWh battery of the rear-wheel-drive Model 3, which means that the power battery cost of Semi will be as high as 1.44 million RMB (about $224,000). As a cost control expert, Musk will naturally calculate this account.Apart from the power battery, the energy supplement system of the Semi and the construction of the Megacharger supercharging pile are also major projects. Their promotion and progress will depend on multiple factors such as Tesla’s funding, the scale of use of the transportation fleet, and US government subsidies.
Taking everything into account, due to the constraints from the battery and energy supplement system, Tesla Semi’s production capacity may not be too great for a period of time. Unless Tesla is able to reduce the costs of these two aspects.
Although Musk said at Tesla’s Q3 earnings call this year that the target for Semi in North America in 2024 is to produce about 50,000 units. Currently, this high-performance and high-cost pure electric tractor will experience a long period of production capacity ramp-up.
Will the Semi change the Chinese heavy truck market structure?
Tesla has stated that “we hope to provide Semi in other markets.”
“The most likely situation is that it will be locally produced, so we are discussing the establishment of a potential new electric truck factory in Europe or Asia.”
If Tesla extends its new electric truck factory and business tentacles into the domestic market, what impact will it have on the structure of the Chinese heavy truck market?
Gu Dehua, Chairman and General Manager of Yutong Light Trucks, believes that this will inevitably further squeeze the market share of traditional diesel trucks in China.
In the domestic commercial vehicle market, electric heavy trucks are still in the initial stage with a penetration rate of less than 1\%. However, electric heavy trucks continue to maintain absolute growth in the shrinking sales of heavy trucks over the past two years.
Thanks to various favorable factors such as policy incentives, low total ownership costs, gradually mature business models, and sustained growth in market demand, electric heavy trucks have shown an exponential growth trend since 2021.
According to Korn Ferry Management Consulting’s forecast, this growth trend of electric heavy trucks will continue, and the penetration rate will reach 18\% by 2030.
Gu Dehua believes that from the perspective of commercial vehicle TCO, electric trucks have obvious advantages over traditional diesel trucks. Once users calculate the economic account, they will completely turn to electric trucks and fundamentally replace traditional diesel trucks.The general manager of HuocheIMa, Guo Yuan, believes that once Tesla enters the Chinese electric truck market, it will undoubtedly compete directly with domestic leaders in electric heavy trucks, such as SANY, Yutong, Hanma Technology, Dongfeng, and SAIC Hongyan. However, the premise is that Tesla must have a certain price advantage, at least 20-30% lower than the current selling price.
Several commercial vehicle industry insiders also believe that unlike the high concentration of US highway transport, more than 80% of truck drivers in China run individual businesses. The high purchase cost of electric trucks will still deter most of them.
Especially in China’s long-haul transportation scenarios, the transportation party usually requires a load capacity of over 40 tons for heavy trucks, and in some cases, over 80 tons with the attachment of trailers. Load capacity is an important purchasing standard for heavy trucks.
However, the maximum actual load capacity of most electric heavy trucks is limited to 36-38 tons, which means that electric heavy trucks may not be the preferred purchase target for most customers.
But based on Musk’s style, once Tesla decides to enter the Chinese commercial vehicle market, it may replicate the “fish effect” it has had in the domestic new energy passenger car market, accelerating the development and popularization of electrification and intelligence in the domestic commercial vehicle industry, and driving an even more vigorous wave of new energy commercial vehicles.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.