Author: Jingtao Wu
We used to think Toyota wouldn’t have accidents, but recently there have been many unexpected incidents.
The bZ4X, a somewhat tongue-twisting all-electric SUV from Toyota, has definitely become the most popular option for evaluating Toyota’s most talked-about car model in China in 2022.
As a model that marks Toyota’s “full electrification” declaration, the bZ4X undoubtedly attracts public attention, as it is the first globally available mass-produced vehicle with Toyota’s all-electric architecture.
However, the actual situation is somewhat different from “common sense.” The bZ4X has nothing to do with the public’s interest and the aforementioned reasons. Instead, the reason why the bZ4X is attracting everyone’s attention is due to its two recalls abroad and the “two time listings” in China.
As the long-term “number one” in the global automobile market, Toyota’s “confusing operations,” such as playing a cat-and-mouse game with the bZ4X, have not only attracted attention to the bZ4X but also aroused our curiosity about what is wrong with Toyota today.
Fortunately, on October 10th, in the face of heavy questioning from the outside world, GAC Toyota formally launched the bZ4X, a heavyweight new car with a milestone significance for Toyota’s full electrification process. The new car comes in 5 models, with a price range of 1.998 to 2.878 million yuan.
The whole launch process was very low-key, with only WeChat public accounts and video platforms being used, and GAC Toyota’s official Weibo did not synchronize anything. On the same day, FAW Toyota’s version of the bZ4X also began pre-sales, priced between 220,000 and 300,000 yuan.
Recap
We followed up on the situation surrounding Toyota’s bZ4X being unable to fast-charge in low temperatures, the risk of wheel detachment while driving, and its sudden suspension from sales in China. Interested readers can look back at our previous article, titled “Toyota, the “world’s number one” can’t even make electric cars properly: slow charging in low temperatures and wheel detachment risk?”To better understand the information about this car for friends who have not paid much attention to it before, let’s have a brief review:
In April of this year, the bZ4X was officially launched in the United States at a price of $42,000 to $48,780, while Yifeng and Guangfeng, which are about to introduce the bZ4X, also announced the pre-sale price range of 220,000 to 300,000 yuan.
In May, Toyota found that the battery management system of the bZ4X had problems in cold environments. When the temperature is below 10℃, the charging time will significantly increase, and when the temperature is below 0℃, the DC charging may not be available.
On June 17, according to the plan, GAC Toyota was supposed to launch the bZ4X on that day, but the launch conference was urgently cancelled. For a time, the reasons why Toyota cancelled the bZ4X launch conference were various, and the real reason for the cancellation did not surface until several days later.
On June 23, according to the Financial Times, Toyota announced the global recall of 2,700 pure electric SUV bZ4X. Toyota stated that “there is a problem with the bolts connecting the wheels, which may cause the wheels to come off.”
Due to Toyota’s investigation of the specific cause of the defect at that time, the defect could not be repaired. Toyota stated: “We are studying whether tightening the bolts can solve the problem or whether parts need to be replaced”, and urged owners not to drive the vehicle before the problem was fixed.
Until early October, Toyota finally seemed to have found a solution to the problem and recalled it in the United States and Japan to fix the problem. Toyota stated in the recall document that “the hub bolts of the bZ4X will be replaced with newly designed hub bolts with washers to solve the problem of wheel detachment risks during vehicle driving”, and provided a new version of the owner’s manual.
According to foreign media reports, the bZ4X, which has been suspended due to this problem, will resume production in mid-October.## Official Launch
After the cancellation of the “First Launch” 115 days ago, GAC Toyota has finally launched the bZ4X officially, offering a total of five models with two different driving modes at a price range of 1.998-2.878 million RMB.
As usual, let’s briefly introduce the basic information of the vehicle first:
The bZ4X is positioned as a midsize pure electric SUV model, and is the first pure electric global model built on the Toyota e-TNGA architecture. It is also the first pure electric vehicle produced under mass production after Toyota’s revenge last year by releasing 15 electric vehicles, which is self-evident in its significance to Toyota.
The length/width/height of the new car are 469018601650mm respectively, and the wheelbase is 2850mm.
Two driving layouts are provided, with the single-motor version as front-wheel drive and the dual-motor version as four-wheel drive. The maximum power of the front-wheel single-motor model is 150kW, and the maximum torque is 266.3N·m. The maximum power of the four-wheel dual-motor model is 160kW, and the maximum torque is 337N·m (where the maximum power of the rear motor is only 80kW).
The battery uses a ternary lithium battery pack from CATL, offering two capacity options of 50.3kWh and 66.7kWh. Depending on the model, four versions of 400, 500, 560, and 615km range under CLTC conditions are provided.
In terms of advanced driving assistance systems, the bZ4X series is equipped with an L2 “Toyota Safety Sense” advanced driving assistance system, which can achieve the basic L2 level of driving assistance.
In terms of configuration, compared with domestic brand models, bZ4X has continued the “excellent tradition” of Toyota’s fuel vehicles era, being very cost-effective.
For example, the entry-level model priced at 1.998 million RMB, as a model almost at the level of 2 million RMB, only has CLTC range of 400km. It is not equipped with front and rear radar, keyless entry, wireless charging panels, and the infotainment system does not provide any networking functions, only manual seats, manual wipers, and plastic steering wheels are provided.
To get comfort features like front car radar, front seat electric adjustment, keyless entry, connected car services, wireless charging panel, and seat heating, you need to go for the top-end single motor model priced at 249,800 yuan. More common features among Chinese domestic brands, such as lane keeping assistant, automatic parking, blind-spot warning, power tailgate, external discharge capability, ambient lighting, and air conditioning air purifier, all require the top-end configuration priced at 287,800 yuan.
Before test driving the car, it’s hard to tell the advantage of the configuration level compared to “newly-built cars” from domestic brands, let alone those from other joint ventures. Of course, there is no denying that Toyota’s “bull head brand” has a certain brand premium space in the hearts of many middle-aged people in the south. But can this have any miraculous effect in the new energy field? We can only wait and see!
However, the two compact pure electric SUVs previously launched by Toyota in the country, the C-HR EV and the IZOA EV, had performed quite poorly in the market.
In July of this year, the IZOA EV produced by FAW Toyota was officially discontinued, and during the 27 months from April 2020 to July 2022, only 3,320 units (an average of 123 units per month) were produced. If the parts used by the factory and dealers are deducted, the actual sales volume is even lower.
In June, when bZ4X was first delayed, we briefly analyzed the enormous difficulties that Toyota is facing in electrification. As time goes by, the difficulties Toyota faces in electrification are inevitably further shown to the world.
Firstly, the sales volume. In July 2022, Toyota’s global sales volume dropped by 7.2% YoY, and sales volume has declined YoY for 11 consecutive months. It wasn’t until August that the YoY growth was achieved for the first time in 12 months, with a growth rate of 4%.In the first three quarters of this year, Toyota’s sales in the United States were 1,571,714 units, a year-on-year decline of 15.8%. It has been surpassed by General Motors and lost its position as the leader in the US auto market.
Not only has the international market been weak, but even the performance in the Japanese domestic market has not been satisfactory. As of August, Toyota’s sales in Japan have been declining for 12 consecutive months.
In stark contrast, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle models in various countries continues to rise. In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China broke through 30%, reaching 31.8%. From January to August, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in newly registered cars in Europe reached 20%.
Contrary to the impression that the United States loves high-displacement naturally aspirated models, in August, the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 43% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy also reached 6.28%. But the sales of Toyota and Honda’s HEV hybrid models, which account for more than 50% of the market share, decreased by 4% year-on-year.
Previously, Toyota has been teetering on the issue of “full electrification”. However, looking at such an overall environment, Toyota’s attitude towards full electrification is still “ambiguous”.
Recently, Toyota’s president Akio Toyoda said in response to a reporter’s question: “California’s plan to ban fuel vehicles in 2035 will be quite difficult.”
At the same time, he also believes that it will be equally difficult for the United States to achieve the goal of electric vehicles accounting for half of the sales in 2030. As a car company that sells cars in 200 countries around the world, Toyota must consider the needs of different markets, especially the fact that one billion consumers worldwide cannot enjoy the convenience of charging facilities, which will obviously shrink the market for electric vehicles.
And in the long run, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be better products, but in the short term, hybrid vehicles are still the best choice.
Obviously, the sustained decline in overall sales and the continuous increase in the global market share of new energy vehicles have not made Toyota more determined to electrify its products. It is not difficult to see from Akio Toyoda’s statements that Toyota still has high expectations for the sales of its HEV hybrid products.
As for the hydrogen fuel technology route, which is generally not favored by the outside world, it seems that Toyota will never give up this unique route that it has worked hard to operate for many years but has been ignored by others.
Cautiously Pessimistic
“A person always likes to reminisce about the past, either because the past was so beautiful or the present is too difficult.” I think this sentence also applies to Toyota today.
It must be admitted that the perspective of the automotive media is sometimes very narrow. However, whether it is from the industry data such as the penetration rate and sales volume of new energy vehicles or from the perspective of the overall environment and situation, represented by Toyota, Japanese automakers have no way to regain the dominance and leading position of the era of fuel vehicles in the field of new energy, facing the advantages of the powerful industrial chain strength and potential consumer market of China and the United States.
In the era of fuel vehicles, Germany, which is also a strong country, understands this very well. They can keep a relaxed attitude toward electrification and proactively integrate into the new ecosystem. Although they started late in the field of new energy, they did not give up and chose to start over gradually to catch up.
But it seems that Japanese automakers still have some fantasies and persistence. Their hands and feet are bound by their former dominant position, and they still dare not fully invest in the “mainstream track” of new energy.
As for the products, as the first global pure electric vehicle model built under the Toyota e-TNGA architecture, bZ4X obviously started with a bad hand.
The overseas quality problems one after another, the extremely low market share of Toyota’s pure electric vehicle models, and the low cost-performance ratio without any technical and configuration advantages compared to “new car” brand models, all make us hold a “cautiously pessimistic” attitude towards the sales of bZ4X.
As for the Toyota brand loyalists mentioned above, whether the middle-aged population in the south who believe in the premium brand value of the “bull’s head logo” can lend it a helping hand, apart from their acceptance of pure electric vehicle models, just the name “bZ4X” can already make them practice tongue twisters for two hours after leaving the 4S store.
What do you estimate the monthly sales volume of bZ4X will be? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.