Author: Issue 2
When the penetration rate of new energy has surpassed one quarter, the development of lithium battery technology that excessively relies on it has caused some concerns about the development of power batteries. Can the current level of lithium battery technology support the sustainable development of the electric vehicle industry? If there is a “limit”, should new battery technology be sought?
As a luxury brand, BMW Group has given its own answer at this time: cylindrical cells.
On September 9th, BMW Group announced that it will lead the way in using cylindrical cells in “new generation” models from 2025.
Prior to this, BMW, as a German automaker, had always been a supporter of “prismatic cells” and had not used pouches for BEV. Therefore, it was somewhat surprising when people heard that the next generation of BMW batteries (GEN6) would change shape, and BMW Group would use cylindrical cells to replace the current prismatic cells.
So why is BMW Group betting on cylindrical cells?
In fact, as early as 2019, BMW Group conducted research in the field of battery cells, and at that time, it planned to invest 200 million euros in Munich to launch new battery cell technology, continuously self-developing towards electrification, and creating differentiation for BMW pure electric vehicles from the entire value chain, supply chain, and lifecycle dimensions by continuously upgrading the mastery of battery cell raw materials and core technology standards.
Just because it is “non-professional,” as a complete vehicle manufacturer, BMW Group’s investment in battery development is seen by outsiders as somewhat “neglecting its main business.”
Subsequently, from 2020, BMW Group directly purchased the production of battery cells and raw materials such as cobalt and lithium, focusing on the supply chain of battery cell production to ensure its sustainable development.
Regarding the choice of cylindrical cells in this plan, it can be seen that BMW is more interested in their advantages.
Firstly, the development trend of cylindrical cell technology. According to industry data, the sales of electric vehicles had reached 6.5 million units in 2021, and the data is still growing, with global electric vehicle sales expected to exceed 20 million units in 2025, corresponding to power battery demands of exceeding 1,600GWh. Combined with the industry development situation, the large cylindrical cells should account for at least 30% of the share, or about 480GWh, which has already surpassed the total global demand in 2021.
Secondly, the advantages of cylindrical cells. The new battery cell introduced by BMW can greatly improve energy density, endurance, and charging speed, while reducing carbon footprint and resource consumption in battery cell manufacturing. Compared with the previous square cell, the advantages of cylindrical cells are:
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A 50% cost reduction target;
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A 20% increase in energy density, and an increase in range of up to 30%;
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A charging speed increase of up to 30%;
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Compatibility with 400V and 800V, switchable;
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High nickel content reduces cobalt by 50% and copper by 40%.
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In terms of safety, cylindrical cells have a significant advantage over other types due to their ability to degrade in the event of a single cell failure.
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In the battery manufacturing process, carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by up to 60%.
Most importantly, BMW Group’s goal is to reduce the manufacturing cost of electric cars to the same level as its most advanced internal combustion engines. The integration of cylindrical cells can significantly reduce the cost of high-voltage batteries, with a cost reduction of up to 50% compared to previous square-shaped batteries.
Lastly, there is pressure from competitors. While battery costs may be affected by increases in raw material prices, BMW needs to develop batteries that offer higher range, or risk being left behind by brands like Tesla.
As an example, Tesla’s highest-range model is the Model 3 Performance, which has a maximum range of 675 kilometers.
Tesla’s battery design is also divided into two parts. One part uses cylindrical cells with different chemical systems to meet different capacity requirements. Tesla’s 4680 cells have a capacity 5 times that of the current 2170 cells, output power 6 times that of the current cells, and can increase electric vehicle range by 16% while reducing cost per kilowatt-hour by 14%. It also offers significant advantages in terms of energy density, power, and charge/discharge. The other part is a square shell with Pack iterations.
In terms of design, the BMW cylindrical cell is similar to Tesla’s 4680 cell, with both cells having a diameter of 46mm. However, the height of Tesla’s 4680 cell is 80mm, while the BMW cylindrical cell offers two height options: 95mm or 120mm, mainly for sedans and SUVs, depending on the Z-axis height requirements of the vehicle.
Currently, the BMW i4 eDrive40 version has the highest range of up to 625 kilometers on the CLTC. With the new cylindrical battery, the WLTP range could be increased by up to 30%, while also reducing space requirements to achieve the best possible integration with the vehicle body, maximizing the use of the interior space.
When it comes to cylindrical battery production, why isn’t BMW building its own battery plant? And how will it control costs?From the perspective of suppliers, Chinese power battery companies have an advantage in large cylindrical batteries, especially contemporary Amperex Technology and EVE Energy, the two power battery giants, the former mainly follows the route of square batteries, while the latter has made some achievements in cylindrical batteries.
According to the latest data from SNE Research, in July of this year, Contemporary Amperex Technology continued to dominate the top of the list with an installed capacity of 13.3 GWh; in terms of domestic power battery installed capacity, Contemporary Amperex Technology and EVE Energy rank first and eighth respectively with a total installed capacity of 63.91 GWh and 3.02 GWh, the market share of which has reached 47.59% and 2.25%, respectively, which is enough to prove their strong strength in battery development.
In November 2019, BMW signed a new battery procurement contract with Contemporary Amperex Technology, with the contract period extended from 2020 to 2031.
In October 2020, EVE Energy announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary had received a designated letter from Huachen BMW’s supplier, with the designated project name being “BK 48V”.
Therefore, on September 9, the BMW Group announced that they will be the first to use cylindrical power batteries in “new generation” models starting from 2025, and awarded value contracts worth over 10 billion euros to domestic power battery giants Contemporary Amperex Technology and EVE Energy.
According to the agreement, Contemporary Amperex Technology and EVE Energy will each establish two power factories in China and Europe, with an annual production capacity of 20GWh per factory, with a total investment of over 10 billion euros.
Subsequently, Contemporary Amperex Technology and EVE Energy announced the news one after another.
For the BMW Group, the choice of battery is not only a technology, but also a sustainable development.
The BMW Group attaches great importance to the supply chain and wants to maintain a low carbon footprint and resource consumption as much as possible. Therefore, according to Contemporary Amperex Technology, this cooperation will give priority to using renewable energy electricity and recycled materials to produce high-performance battery cells, while cobalt and lithium and other raw materials used in the production of new generation batteries will also be purchased from certified mines.
Under the extremely high penetration rate, the BMW Group needs to comprehensively improve its cell and battery technology in order to conform to the standard of battery cells without too many patented additions, and can only adopt a multi-supplier approach.
On the other hand, in order to demonstrate its value, it must promote the combination of its own Know How and external forces. This is also why BMW has been “hardcore” researching battery cells.In terms of strategic planning, BMW Group is accelerating the promotion of its electric vehicle triad system platform. Standardization is essential to avoid entering the field of battery cell manufacturing, and this approach is essentially similar to Tesla’s move to manufacture the 4680 battery cells in-house to encourage suppliers.
More importantly, standardizing the battery makes it easier to achieve low-cost control than making battery cells themselves, and ensures low-profit supply in terms of production capacity.
In addition to cooperating with CATL and EVE Energy, BMW also stated that it will seek battery partners and establish two battery cell factories in the North American free trade zone. The total capacity of six battery factories will reach 120 GWh.
Finally:
As the product matrix expands and market demand increases, BMW Group plans to deliver more than 2 million pure electric vehicles globally by the end of 2025. By 2030, half of BMW’s sales will be pure electric models.
At the same time, BMW plans to deliver 10 million pure electric vehicles to global customers in the next decade or so. In other words, from 2025 to 2030, BMW needs to deliver 8 million pure electric cars, an average of 1.6 million per year.
Although BMW has launched many new cars in recent years, the profit margin of pure electric vehicles is still lower than that of gasoline vehicles. BMW still needs significant adjustments to achieve annual delivery of one million pure electric cars after 2025.
BMW’s choice of the cylindrical battery shape and cooperation with CATL and EVE Energy is just to follow the current development situation. To have more initiative and to “independently” mass produce, BMW needs to first master the technology research and development, raw material procurement, and technical standards of battery cells.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.