Author: Chris

On March 27, 2022, Business Insider published another interview between the CEO of Axel Springer, the largest digital publisher in Europe, Mathias Döpfner, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

About 5 quarters ago, Döpfner and Elon had a super long interview (Elon Musk: Bury Me on Mars), where they discussed topics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, biotechnology, history, the future of humanity and the universe, etc.

Today, the world we live in has undergone significant changes, including the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Germany, and Tesla putting the humanoid robot Tesla Bot on top of their product development priority list. What new sparks will Döpfner and Elon’s interview have after a year?

In a sense, these two interviews are more like an upper and lower part of a super long interview. Like a quasar channel, we have done a translation without changing the original meaning of the interview, for the enjoyment of our readers.

Döpfner: Before we talk about the future, let’s take a look at the present. Europe is at war, and if you see the terrifying scenes of Putin’s army invading Ukraine and killing people, what are your thoughts?

Elon: Seeing this kind of thing in this era is surprising, I think we have largely surpassed this kind of thing. It is very worrying. If you (Putin) can get away with it, then it will send a message to other countries, perhaps they can also get away with it.

Döpfner: Are you surprised by Putin’s behavior? I mean, I remember in previous discussions, most Europeans believed that he would not do so. Many Americans believed he would invade. What were your expectations?

Elon: My best guess is that he will seek to occupy one-third of the eastern region of Ukraine. Honestly, if you have heard his remarks, it is clear that he will at least target the proportion of people speaking Russian in the regions of Ukraine. He has already done this in Georgia.

Döpfner: In a sense, if you listen carefully to what the dictator says, they often say what they want to do. You have to take it seriously.

Elon: Yes, they are not ambiguous.Döpfner: But so far, what Putin may achieve is almost completely opposite to what he wants to achieve. He wants to disconnect the United States and Europe, and weaken NATO. So far, he has strengthened NATO and united the West. This almost constitutes a two-party issue that unites democratic countries and open societies.

Regarding the long-term results, do you think you are quite pessimistic, as it will strengthen Putin’s power and pave the way for other examples in China or elsewhere? Or are you more optimistic that this could be a turning point for different security policies in the West?

Elon: I do think it will hit the West. I think, of course, people will realize that maybe we shouldn’t have all these internal quarrels when there are more serious threats.

Döpfner: Zelensky made it clear: “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Europe, especially Germany, has been struggling for a long time. What about the U.S. government?

Elon: I think the U.S. government has done more than people imagine. It just hasn’t been completely public, but it’s important to do something serious. We can’t let Putin take over Ukraine. This is too crazy.

Döpfner: Parts of the world, especially Europe, have learned the wrong lessons from the Third Reich and the Holocaust. The lesson is: never military intervention again. Try not to intervene. Now, we have the opportunity to learn a real lesson: never racism, never genocide, never appeasement.

Elon: Appeasement obviously doesn’t work for Hitler. The world would have been much better if they had stopped him earlier. Better for everyone.

Döpfner: At the request of the Ukrainian Minister of Digital Affairs, you did something very specific, providing Starlink materials (satellite communication terminals under SpaceX) within 48 hours to grant internet access. What is your motivation and how did it develop?

Elon: We do think that Starlink may be needed, and we took some proactive steps to make sure it could be provided quickly. When the request came, we moved very fast.

It is worth noting that Ukraine’s satellite internet connection was permanently offline due to a network attack on the day of the invasion. The cell phone towers were either bombed or disrupted. The Russians know there is a major fiber optic backbone, and they are likely to cut that fiber optic connection. This would leave Ukraine with almost no open connection.

Therefore, in some areas of Ukraine, Starlink may be the only connection.

Döpfner: What if the Russians target the satellites? Does this pose a threat to Starlink?Elon: It’s interesting to understand the Russian anti-satellite demonstration a few months ago in the context of this conflict, as it caused a lot of controversy for satellite operators and even posed some danger to space stations with Russian cosmonauts. Why did they do this? It was information prior to the Ukrainian invasion.

If you try to take down Starlink, it’s not easy because SpaceX has deployed 2,000 satellites, meaning you’ll need a lot of anti-satellite missiles. I hope we don’t have to test this, but I think we’ll be launching satellites faster than they can launch anti-satellite missiles.

Döpfner: Russia says they will stop delivering rocket engines. Is this a threat or an opportunity for SpaceX?

Elon: At SpaceX, we design and manufacture our rocket engines ourselves, so we don’t really have any Russian components to speak of.

Döpfner: Is this risky for the US?

Elon: Boeing and Lockheed have been heavily reliant on the Russian RD-180 engine. I should say, fairly, that it’s a great engine. They’re hoping to get out of that with Blue Origin, which is Jeff Bezos’s company developing an engine for them to use in the future. I believe there’s also Antares that uses the RD-180, and they won’t be able to fly as a result.

Döpfner: With knowledge, products, and services, Elon Musk is almost a strategic weapon in modern warfare. What is your role in this situation?

Elon: I think I can be helpful in the conflict. I’m trying to take a series of actions that I think are most likely to improve the probability of a good future. Obviously, sometimes I’m wrong about that, but I’m doing everything I can to ensure that the future is good for humanity. Those are the actions I’ll take.

Döpfner: We had a conversation a few months ago about Ernst Jünger’s book “Storm of Steel”. You were very fascinated with the book. The book was published about a hundred years ago and talked about Jünger’s experience in World War I. Why was that book so important to you?

Elon: I’ve read a lot of books, and for some reason, I’m fascinated by war and history. Not just military history, but general history. Jünger’s book is an excellent personal account of World War I. The lesson I learned from that book is that we should never do that again.

Döpfner: There is a lot of controversy around that book, and some people say it romanticizes war…

Elon: Absolutely not!Döpfner: …It is neither active nor passive. It just describes what happened in a dreadful way.

Elon: Nobody reads that book and says, “I want to do that.” For me, reading history is fascinating. I mean, learn from history so that we don’t repeat the mistakes.

Döpfner: History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. These days we see a certain rhyme. If you go back to the big strategic picture, Putin’s dreadful moves are at least partly the result of strategic mistakes made by Europe, especially Germany, when they abandoned nuclear power in 2011.

Elon: Germany should not have shut down their nuclear plants, it’s absolutely crazy.

Döpfner: If we really want to reduce Putin’s power and Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, we have to decarbonize. There is no other way. Is more nuclear power the key to getting rid of dictators and despots like Putin?

Elon: I think it’s very clear. You not only shouldn’t shut down nuclear plants, you should actually reopen ones that have been shut down. It’s the fastest way to produce power. Shutting down nuclear plants now is crazy, especially if you’re in a place without natural disasters.

If you’re in a place where there’s a serious risk of earthquakes or tsunamis, then you have to put a question mark. If there’s no risk of major natural disasters – Germany doesn’t have that – then nuclear power really isn’t dangerous.

Döpfner: Is there no safer alternative that can produce similar effects? Solar and wind can’t do it. Do you have any other ideas about future energy policy?

Elon: I think in the long term, most of civilization’s energy will come from the sun, and then you need batteries to store it because obviously the sun only shines during the day and sometimes it’s cloudy, so you need solar and batteries. That will be the long-term primary way that human civilization gets energy. But from now until then, we need to maintain nuclear, that can’t be overly emphasized.

Shutting them down is completely crazy. I want to be very clear, completely crazy.

Döpfner: Let’s see if this very clear message can be heard in Germany.

Elon: I would say this is a national security risk.

Döpfner: What will the climate crisis look like in 15 years? Will it be better than today?

Elon: From the sustainability standpoint, it will be much better.

Döpfner: So we have to solve this problem?

Elon: Yes, of course, we will solve the climate crisis, it is just a matter of time. This is the fundamental mission of Tesla.Döpfner: You have said that declining birth rates are one of the most underestimated issues of all time. Why?

Elon: Most people in the world are working under the wrong impression that there are already too many people on Earth. It’s not true, birth rates have been plummeting. Unfortunately, we have ridiculous population estimates from the United Nations that need to be updated because they make no sense.

Look at the growth rate last year and the number of kids born times life expectancy. That’s how many people will be alive in the future. And then ask if the birth rate trend is positive or negative? It’s negative, and that’s the best case unless there’s a change in birth rates.

Döpfner: That’s also why we need alternatives. You recently showcased the humanoid robot Optimus and shared huge expectations of what it could bring to the world. I think it’s not just about the first landing on Mars that Optimus might be able to accomplish, but it could also be a game-changer in the field of artificial intelligence. Can you share more about this vision?

Elon: Yeah, I do have some concerns about AI and robotics in that I certainly don’t want anything that could be harmful to humans. But humanoids are coming. Look at Boston Dynamics and their improving demos every year. The rate of development in AI is very fast.

Döpfner: Specifically, Optimus will be used in the Tesla factory, as one use case. But what are the more widespread use cases beyond Tesla?

Elon: Optimus is a general-purpose worker robot. The initial role has to be in repeatable, boring or dangerous work. Essentially, the jobs that people don’t want to do.

Döpfner: Why two legs for Optimus? Is it just because it looks like a person or is it more practical? I feel four legs would be better.

Elon: Ha-ha, four legs good, two legs bad, reminding me of Orwell. The whole world is designed for bipedal humanoid products with two arms and ten fingers. So if you want the robot to be able to do things that a human can do and interact with the human world, it must have roughly the same size, shape, and ability.

Döpfner: Do you think Optimus will play a role in our everyday lives, helping us with household chores and such?

Elon: Yeah, a focused humanoid product.

Döpfner: The prototype will be ready before the end of this year. When will it be a product that can be sold on a large scale?Elon: I think we’ll have some fairly good product prototypes this year, and they may be ready for moderate mass production by the end of next year.

Döpfner: You say Optimus has more potential than Tesla. Then it must be a truly mass market product. But in any case, Optimus is also the answer to the declining birth rate. If we don’t have enough people, we need more robots to do the work.

Elon: Optimus will help in terms of the declining birth rate. But what happens if these things continue? Humanity will be extinct. Is that what we want?

Döpfner: Or replaced by artificial intelligence, driven by Neuralink.

Elon: Short-term, Neuralink is just addressing brain and spinal cord injuries. So for many years, Neuralink’s products will only be helpful to those who have lost the use of their limbs or have some kind of traumatic brain injury. That’s Neuralink’s use for many years.

Döpfner: Can you imagine one day we could download human brain power to Optimus?

Elon: I think it’s possible.

Döpfner: This would be a different form of immortality because we would be downloading our personalities into robots.

Elon: Yes, we could download those things that we think make us so unique. Now, of course, it would be different if you’re no longer in that body, but in terms of preserving our memories and personalities, I think we can accomplish that.

Döpfner: I think the singularity moment that inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted for 2025 is fast approaching. Is that timetable still realistic?

Elon: I’m not sure if there’s a very clear demarcation, but I think it will be much smoother.

We have outsourced too much computation. Our memories are stored in our phones and computers along with pictures and videos. Computers and phones enhance our communication abilities, allowing us to do some things that were previously considered miraculous. Now you can have a basic video call between two people on opposite sides of the world essentially for free, it’s incredible. We’ve greatly expanded our own brain with computers.

It might be interesting to roughly calculate the ratio of digital computation to biological computation, and how that ratio changes over time. With so much digital computation happening so rapidly, this ratio should increase rapidly.Döpfner: Speaking of speed, you have a vision that one day Starship will be able to travel from A to B globally within 30 minutes. Is that correct? It’s like a global super taxi. Can you go from San Francisco to Nairobi?

Elon: The landing will be quite loud, so you probably want to land in cities near the ocean. So you could land far enough offshore that the sound wouldn’t bother people.

Döpfner: Is it a realistic option to travel from coast to coast?

Elon: Yes, it’s like an intercontinental rocket.

Döpfner: You have solved many problems and proposed many solutions for humanity. I am surprised that there seems to be a topic that is not so intriguing to you: longevity. With significant increases in lifespan, why are you not interested in it? Are you personally not interested in longevity?

Elon: I don’t think we should be trying to make people live hundreds of years. That would be, in a sense, suffocating for the society because the fact is that most people won’t change their minds, they’ll just die. So if they don’t die, then we’ll be stuck with old ways and the society won’t make progress.

I think we’ve actually got a pretty severe elderly control problem where a lot of leaders in countries are really old. In the United States, it’s just ridiculously old leadership. You can’t even relate to them if you’re a few generations younger. The founding fathers of the United States set a minimum age for holding public office, but they didn’t set a maximum age because they didn’t realize people would live so long.

They should do that. Because for a democracy to function, the leaders have to be in reasonable touch with what most people want.

Döpfner: Is there an ideal maximum age? How old do you want to live?

Elon: I think ideally you want to be within 10 years, or at least 20 years, of the average age of the population for political leaders.

For me personally, of course, I would like to stay healthy for longer. But I’m not afraid of dying. I think it’s a release.

Döpfner: You may not be able to see the vision of SpaceX come true in your lifetime?

Elon: I want to live long enough to see it.

Döpfner: How do you feel about being considered the wealthiest person on Earth, with a net worth of around $260 billion?

Elon: I actually think Putin is way wealthier than me.

Döpfner: Do you really think so?

Elon: Yes.

Döpfner: Have you heard of John Law?

Elon: No, I haven’t.Döpfner: 300 years ago, John Law was once the richest person on Earth. He was a gambler, a “un homme à femmes”, then a very successful investor and financial engineer. He was the largest art collector on Earth. He created a stock market bubble in France by promoting shares of the Mississippi Company and ultimately became one of the causes of the first financial crisis.

John Law owned about 30% of America at that time, and in the end, he went bankrupt. Have you ever thought about what would happen if something went wrong and you would lose everything?

Elon: Many times, I thought I would lose everything. Who starts an automotive company and a rocket company and expects them to succeed? I certainly didn’t, with less than a 10% chance of success. After the third launch failure of SpaceX in 2008, I knew if the fourth one failed, SpaceX would be dead. We had no money for a fifth launch.

Tesla has been close to bankruptcy many times. We even closed our financing round on the last day of 2008. Remember, General Motors and Chrysler had already gone bankrupt, and Ford was on the verge of bankruptcy. So imagine trying to raise money for an electric car startup when GM went bankrupt. People were very angry with my request, but we managed to raise enough money to barely survive and complete Tesla’s financing round on the last hour of the last day of 2008, on Christmas Eve.

If we had not completed that round, we would have gone bankrupt two days after Christmas.

Döpfner: Elon is not only an entrepreneur but also a philanthropist. What is the goal of your foundation?

Elon: I really want to emphasize that SpaceX and Tesla are fundamentally about improving the quality of the future, especially in ways that are most useful to humanity. Tesla accelerates the transition to sustainable energy around the world, while SpaceX makes interplanetary transportation possible. That’s more than I can do by myself.

When it comes to donating, I want to say that it’s very difficult to donate effectively. If you care about the reality of doing good rather than the appearance of doing good, it’s very difficult to donate effectively. I care about reality and to hell with appearance.

So obviously there’s environmental work, there’s education, particularly science and engineering education, pediatric healthcare. The hunger issue these days is more of a political and logistics problem than a lack of food; there’s plenty of food. In the US and many countries, the problem is obesity, not hunger. So I’ve been trying to find effective ways to donate money.Döpfner: If you Google Elon Musk, I think you get over 200 million search results and nearly 80 million Twitter followers. You’re definitely one of the most popular people on Earth. Is popularity a pleasure or a burden to you?

Elon: It makes buying coffee on the corner extremely difficult, going to the places around town or just walking down the street. It’s quite hard to do that now.

Döpfner: It reminds me of Helmut Kohl, the former German chancellor, who once told me that you can’t imagine going into a restaurant and having everyone recognize you, coming to your table and asking for your autograph. It’s terrible. There is only one thing worse in life. That is, if nobody ever comes to your table again.

Elon: Hahaha. I just want to find a corner table or wherever, in dim light or something, where I can be unnoticed.

Döpfner: Is there anything that is particularly urgent for you to achieve?

Elon: Short term, it’s to achieve full autonomy for driving, to have our cars operate autonomous at a much higher level of safety than humans. Essentially, it’s solving real-world AI. This is consuming a huge amount of my time.

Also, getting Starship working. Not only taking it to orbit, but achieving rapid and full reusability – that is the holy grail of rocket technology that’s necessary to become a multi-planet species. I think these things might happen this year.

Döpfner: Is there anything that you truly want to achieve that you consider impossible?

Elon: Impossible is a very strong word.

Döpfner: You don’t like that word.

Elon: It’s a very strong word. I deal with things from a physics standpoint and “impossible” is more or less banned from the physics realm. I’m really worried about the birth rate thing. This has been plaguing me for many years, because I just see no good outcome for this, the birth rate keeps dropping every year, it’s worrisome and I’m driving my friends crazy about it.

Döpfner: Walter Isaacson is planning to write your biography. He has written about Albert Einstein, Steve Jobs, Benjamin Franklin and Leonardo da Vinci. Of those four, who would you most like to have a drink with?

Elon: I would be honored to meet any of them, but I think it would be most interesting to have dinner with Benjamin Franklin.

Döpfner: Who do you think you are closest to? Would it be Leonardo da Vinci?Elon: It’s possible that I’m Benjamin Franklin in disguise. He did a lot of the foundation work for science and engineering that would later be used for art.

Da Vinci wrote a book where he started off by determining himself to be an engineer. In his application to have the position that would ultimately be responsible for all art, he had to have public speeches about his engineering ideas. He just put all of his art ideas in the back. I like that because the beginning and middle of the history of engineering and art are kind of intertwined in those individuals. Da Vinci seems to be the ultimate example of that. But yeah, engineering at its core is just science and mathematics, so it’s just figuring out how to solve problems. Most of the time it’s not inventing anything new, it’s just taking what exists and making it better or adapting it in a new way.

Döpfner: You have said that you cannot be alone, and I completely agree. Where does that come from?

Elon: I think it’s just a natural human response.

Döpfner: A lot of people are very happy in solitude.

Elon: Really? I think most people do not like being alone.

Döpfner: Do you feel lonely?

Elon: I mean, sometimes I feel lonely, yeah.

Döpfner: Because you can’t find people to share your thoughts and feelings with? You’re one of the most popular and beloved people on Earth. Everyone wants to talk to you. But it doesn’t seem to work.

Elon: Yeah, sometimes I feel very lonely. I’m sure everyone feels lonely at times, but it’s basic. If I’m studying Starship or something and I’m just in my house by myself with no one around, especially if my dog isn’t there, then yeah, I’ll feel quite lonely. Because I’m just in a small house by myself, with a dog.

Döpfner: What is your greatest fear?

Elon: What is the existential threat to the continuation of conscious civilization? I spent a lot of time talking about demographics, which, I think is an important issue because you can see that countries where the birth rate is very low, even to the point of where it’s below replacement, those countries will have negative population growth. And that negative population growth, over time, it’s just kind of hard to get back to a positive stage. That’s where you’ve got an inverted demographic pyramid. Then you get fewer and fewer people, then eventually you can’t have a pension, it becomes harder to find employees or employers, so an inverted demographic graph, I think, is a very bad thing.

Then of course you’ve got the other issues, I think, with artificial intelligence gone rogue, and I think that’s quite a dangerous situation to be in. And then particularly religious extremism of any kind, where you’ve got people who are focused on one particular outcome, who are not taking a broader view of things, and I think those are all quite dangerous situations.

Döpfner: What is your greatest ambition?

Elon: My greatest ambition is to establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, which would be a branching-out situation because obviously all life on Earth would become extinct if there was some sort of calamity, like a big war or asteroid impact or something like that. So there’s likely to be another dark age. Particularly if there’s a third world war, then we want to make sure there’s enough of a seed of human civilization somewhere else to bring civilization back, and perhaps shorten the length of the dark ages.

Döpfner: You have said that you will not be happy if you are not in love. Are you happy right now?

Elon: I think love is a very close thing. But certainly to achieve full happiness, I think you need to be happy in work, and you need to be happy in love. So, I’d say I’m reasonably happy.

Döpfner: Can love for projects and work make up for lack of love between people?Elon: I will try my best to be literal. If there is a self-sufficient city on Mars, I would be happy because that way, human lifespan may be longer. I believe that we really only have this tiny candle of consciousness, much like a small light in the midst of darkness. We do not want this candle to go out in the darkness.

This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.