Author: Turbocharged Fatty

In 2017, the first NIO Day was held in Beijing. Five years have passed, and NIO Day has arrived on schedule, just like “the Spring Festival in the car industry”.

For NIO, NIO Day is a big event every year, reviewing the path that NIO has traveled, recalling the bits and pieces between NIO and its users, envisioning what NIO will become in the future, as well as the appearance of heavyweight vehicle models and the release of new technologies.

But in addition to these, even more anticipated is: what did Li Bin say this year?

“Drive a NIO ES6 for 3 years and save up for a BMW X3”

At this year’s NIO Day, Li Bin said:

NIO bought back a NIO ES6 with a mileage of nearly 450,000 kilometers and a battery swap frequency exceeding 1,300 times from a user. Through NIO’s test and disassembly, the performance of acceleration, braking, and interior quietness of this car is comparable to that of a new car.

Regarding this, Li Bin said at NIO Day:

“Drive a NIO ES6 for 3 years and save up for a BMW X3.”

The price of the BMW X3 in China is between CNY 396,900 and 479,800, which is highly overlapping with the price range of NIO ES6, and has a relatively high user overlap in the audience.

If we look at the driving mileage of 450,000 kilometers and the battery swap frequency of more than 1,300 times, this repurchased NIO ES6 used the battery swap mode for all the replenishment during the entire use process. Compared with fuel costs, maintenance costs, etc. of gasoline vehicles, it can truly save the price of a BMW X3 in terms of the cost of use.

Of course, the premise is “driving 450,000 kilometers in three years.”

Another important point is: early NIO users enjoy free lifetime battery swapping without limitation. This only applies to users who purchased NIO models before October 11, 2020, as NIO’s free lifetime battery swapping policy was adjusted at that time.

Users who paid a deposit and had their orders scheduled before October 11, 2020, can enjoy unlimited free battery swapping. However, the policy for free battery swapping for users after that date is:

• Abandoning home charging stations: the first 6 battery swaps each month are free;
• Keeping home charging stations: the first 4 battery swaps each month are free.

But back to this NIO ES6 with nearly 450,000 kilometers on its odometer, it must be said that the owner really loves driving. With a total driving distance of 450,000 kilometers over 3 years, the average monthly driving distance is more than 12,000 kilometers. The car has swapped batteries 1,300 times, an average of 36 swaps per month.

Perhaps some may question whether there really are such electric vehicle users. But I experienced one thing: in 2020, when I participated in a test drive of a certain brand in Golmud, Qinghai, I saw the NIO “milkmaid car” replenishing a NIO ES8 right by the roadside in a remote area more than 300 kilometers away from the city. I took a picture at that time:

Perhaps it is NIO’s “chargeable, swappable, and upgradeable” battery solution and the replenishment system of NIO Power’s “milkmaid car” that have enabled many NIO users to drive their cars boldly and go far.

“Next year’s sales will surpass Lexus gasoline cars”

On the day after NIO Day, NIO prepared two media interviews, which was also a good opportunity for many media outlets to interview Li Bin and Qin Lihong after each NIO Day.

# NIO’s Sales Target for 2023

During an interview, when asked about NIO’s sales target for 2023, Li Bin replied, “I am not at liberty to disclose the specific sales target for next year. After all, we are a listed company and I cannot tell everyone.”

However, Li Bin acknowledges that NIO’s sales still have some distance to go before they can catch up with petrol car sales from brands like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi. Nonetheless, he added, “I am very confident that NIO’s sales next year will surpass those of Lexus petrol vehicles.”

This statement sparked controversy online, given that the Lexus brand has been highly regarded in the Chinese market for a long time and has been recognized by many users. However, this year’s sales figures for Lexus in the Chinese market show that in the period from January to November, Lexus sold 168,600 vehicles, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.45%.

2022 is the first year in many years that Lexus has experienced a decline in sales in the Chinese market. As a result, Lexus may put an end to its trend of continuously increasing sales in the Chinese market for 17 years.

Although NIO delivered 14,178 vehicles in November this year, exceeding Lexus’s 12,643 vehicles, NIO’s cumulative deliveries from January to November were still slightly lower than those of Lexus.

So when will NIO really take off in 2023?

Regarding this, Qin Lihong also mentioned during the interview, “The sales figures presented by NIO this year do not fully reflect the demand for our products, as our factories have not been running at full capacity for much of this year.”# Qin Lihong said that there is a process of switching from NT 1.0 platform to NT 2.0 platform. If we compare it to a high-speed curve racing process, the product is also high-speed turning. Qin Lihong believes that NIO’s curve turning is nearing its end and will enter a new track in the second half of next year.

Li Bin also added here that the specific time will be in Q4 next year, when we can see the market competitiveness of NT 2.0 platform products. In addition, Li Bin mentioned that:

NIO will release three new models in 2023.

Speaking of this, NIO’s new car plan for next year is very clear:

• The first is to iterate the only ES6 and EC6 NT 1.0 platform products to NT 2.0 platform;

• The second is a brand new model based on the NT 2.0 platform.

As for this new car, we have already seen two camouflaged test cars, including the ET5 tour version and the suspected ES5.

But as for who will release it first, Li Bin has previously mentioned that a car model comparable to Tesla Model Y will be launched in 2023.

Therefore, a bold guess: NIO is very likely to launch ES5 first next year?

“Dual motor has better safety and redundancy”

When talking about whether NIO will compromise on the market and reduce hardware to make the price lower, Li Bin used the example of NIO’s long-used dual-motor four-wheel drive system:

NIO has not made such concessions in many places, such as dual motors. From the perspective of acceleration, single motor can sometimes achieve fast acceleration, but the safety and redundancy of dual motors, everyone can understand, it must be beneficial. Is the reliability of a single-engine plane enough? Maybe it’s enough, but it can never compare to two engines. This is certain. Two engines cannot compare to four engines, and this is also the meaning of a high-end car.However, regarding the example given by Li Bin, there are indeed different opinions within the industry:

So why does NIO think that dual motors is the bottom line? I think it is more to cater to NIO’s “high-end” brand image.

It is difficult for a single motor to provide stronger power performance for an electric vehicle weighing over 2 tons. The cost of adding an electric motor ranges from 10,000 to 30,000 RMB. From the perspective of acceleration, the cost is lower than the increase of power performance for gasoline vehicles, such as upgrading from a 4-cylinder engine to a 6-cylinder engine.

For electric vehicles priced below 300,000 RMB, the cost of 10,000 to 30,000 RMB can be saved in order to control costs. However, for electric vehicles with higher prices, not equipping dual motors may affect the product image, which sounds like it will be “devalued.”

“The company will not compromise even with bankruptcy”

Some time ago, it was claimed that a large amount of NIO’s internal data had been cracked and publicly put up for sale. The prices were listed in Bitcoin, such as 22,800 pieces of employee data for sale at 0.15 Bitcoin, 39,900 pieces of vehicle owner identity card data for sale at 0.25 Bitcoin, and all data packaged for sale at 1 Bitcoin.

On December 20th, NIO announced that on December 11th, 2022, the company received an external email claiming to have NIO’s internal data, and was extorted with 2.25 million USD worth of Bitcoin.

After preliminary investigation, the stolen information was some basic user information and vehicle sales information before August 2021 that did not involve data generated during vehicle use (such as driving tracks and cabin data), and did not affect the driving or remote control of the vehicles.

To this, Li Bin also publicly apologized:

In an interview after NIO Day, this issue was raised again, and Li Bin said:

“I am against Bitcoin, which makes such ransom incidents very easy. NIO will take responsibility for the losses suffered by users. Even if the company goes bankrupt, we will not compromise.”

Of course, this incident has caused a lot of controversy online. Many people believe that it is really inappropriate to bow to “black and evil forces” and cannot promote such a domineering atmosphere. But many people also believe that NIO has not done a good job in data security, providing an opportunity for illegal elements.

At the same time, some people indicated that many car companies and dealers now have a practice of excessive collection of user data.

As for Li Bin’s response, “even if the company goes bankrupt, we will not compromise,” some people have a different view:

“Even if hackers really push the data to the market, it will not cause the company to go bankrupt. The so-called ‘resolutely not compromising with criminals’ is to gain fame on the wealth of others, using user data as a bargaining chip to shape their tough-guy image.”

Regardless of the final outcome, if the internal data of a company is maliciously stolen, seeking intervention from the relevant authorities is the most compliant approach.

However, for many companies, excessive collection of user data and information has become the norm, and such behavior in the Internet age is indeed insecure for users.

Therefore, at least for NIO now, how to prevent the flow of this batch of data and ensure future data security is the top priority.

If it involves data generated during the use of vehicles, such as driving tracks and cabin data, or the ability to remotely control vehicles, then the incident will rise to another level.### Final Words

After the release of three new models in 2023, it also means that all NIO models will officially switch to the NT 2.0 platform next year. At the same time, NIO will have eight on-sale models, becoming the Chinese brand with the most on-sale models among the three new forces of “NIO Xiaoli”.

Will NIO’s NT 2.0 platform officially break out in Q4 of 2023? Will the production capacity climb really succeed? Will the full-year sales volume really exceed that of Lexus’s fuel vehicles? All this can only be proven by time.

At least for a Chinese brand, I hope it can surpass overseas brands and joint venture brands – to be blunt, to gain a foothold for Chinese brands.

So, what kind of results will NIO achieve in 2023? We will see at next year’s NIO Day. Of course, we also look forward to Li Bin bringing some “golden phrases” with him to next year’s NIO Day.

This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.