Author | Wang Shuxuan
At the end of 2021, with Rivian sweeping the traditional car makers on NASDAQ and the hype of skateboard chassis reaching its peak, almost all automotive media were republishing articles about skateboard chassis. Some were saying that the main car makers, who still regarded the chassis as their core competence, would be eliminated by the era of intelligent electric vehicles. YOUPA Technology, which had put heavy bets on skateboard chassis technology, even made a “doomsday” prediction: if the chassis was still regarded as their core competence, they would probably be phased out of the market within 5-10 years.
By the end of 2022, Rivian, the pioneer of skateboard chassis technology, struggled with poor revenue throughout the year and recalled over 12,000 vehicles in October, almost all vehicles produced. Consequently, the enthusiasm for skateboard chassis have dropped significantly both overseas and domestically. After the hype faded, we should re-examine the new technologies represented by skateboard chassis and their impact on the automotive industry in a more rational and objective way.
Now, let’s go back and see why people thought the core skills of traditional car makers were at risk of being eliminated at the peak of skateboard chassis’ popularity. In short, there are two reasons: First, the trend of changing focus points of end-users on automotive products in recent years; Second, the fact that skateboard chassis will predictably bring disruptive changes to automotive architectures. Regarding these two reasons, those who are concerned about the development of the automotive industry, especially those who are in the industry chain, should consider two more fundamental issues: First, the increasingly serious internal competition within the automotive industry, what exactly are we fighting for in the end? Second, under the impact of emerging technologies, what will happen to those traditional technologies that used to make traditional car companies proud?
In 2012, which doesn’t seem too long ago, what were the best-selling cars in China? Focus, Sail, Excelle, Lavida, Passat, Jetta, Cruze, Vios, Accent…except for Focus and a few classic cars under Volkswagen’s name, the other names are almost forgotten. What do these famous car models have in common? They are cheap, of good quality, fuel-efficient, and belong to joint venture brands. Their success at the time showed the focus points of Chinese consumers on automotive products: cost-performance ratio, including price, quality, fuel consumption, and brand.
## Translation
Ten years have passed. What has changed in the focus of the end-users on automotive products? Let us take a look at the new energy vehicle companies represented by Tesla and BYD. Regardless of the popular models this year, whether it is the Tesla Model Y or the BYD Han, their prices are far higher than those of the previous models such as the Chevrolet Sail and Volkswagen Lavida. As for production quality control, these new car companies are indeed not able to compare with well-established brands such as Volkswagen and Toyota. However, these issues do not affect their success in the sales market. Therefore, it is easy for people to think that the times have changed, and the end-users’ focus on automotive products has changed from the “price, quality, fuel consumption, and brand” ten years ago to the current “sense of technology, endurance, appearance.” If a car has a fully functional large screen that can easily cooperate with various electronic devices, coupled with impeccable cool appearance, then even if its quality is poor and its price is a bit high, consumers will still pay the bill.
However, this view is neither correct nor safe.
Superficially, consumers today do not seem to focus on technology and quality as much as they used to, but the reason behind this is that the overall product technology and quality of the entire automotive industry chain have greatly improved.
There is no need to conceal the fact that ten years ago, domestic independent brands, whether it was Geely or BYD, had outdated technology, frequent quality issues, and had a low-end image in the minds of consumers as synonymous with inferiority. This is the reason why none of the top ten sales ranked cars at that time were independent brand models. After nearly ten years of development, domestic independent brands, whether through self-reliance or mergers and acquisitions, plus the flow of talent within the industry, have made many traditional technologies no longer monopolized by high-end brands. The automotive product quality management system has also become increasingly common in the industry, so we can see that the automotive market pattern has undergone tremendous changes. Even today, although Tesla and BYD, these brands without “culture,” cannot reach the level of Volkswagen and Toyota in terms of technology accumulation and quality control, we must objectively recognize that their current level is much better than they were ten years ago, and the gap between them and well-established brands has become small enough to be accepted by consumers.
Therefore, the success of Tesla and BYD does not mean that consumers no longer focus on technology and quality. It only means that the technology and quality issues we previously focused on have become a basic requirement that no longer requires special attention.So, to put it the other way around, if a car company focuses only on current hot topics but fails to do a good job of basic chassis technology and quality management, it is the one that will truly be eliminated by the market first. The large-scale recall by Rivian in October this year was a lesson for us.
In today’s highly advanced information age, cars are becoming less mysterious and end consumers are becoming more and more knowledgeable about cars. Therefore, they are increasingly able to truly focus on a car’s overall product strength. This includes factors in every dimension such as product technology, product quality, software and hardware experience, sales and after-sales experience, etc., which comprise the most core product strength for a brand. Technology and quality are necessary factors for product strength, while the visual design, software and hardware experience, and pre-sales and after-sales service that a product brings are advanced factors for product strength.
As necessary factors, technology and quality are the foundation and premise for improving product strength. Because of this, they are also likely to be destined for commoditization. It can be foreseen that the development of technology and quality management in the future car industry will become a state of “common prosperity”.
As the advanced factors, visual design, software and hardware experience, and pre-sales and after-sales service will become the key points to truly endow a car product with soul and brand differentiation, and they will certainly become the main areas where future car companies need to devote their “main efforts” in product development and enterprise development.
The reason why skateboard chassis became popular last year was largely because they provide extremely broad application prospects for “common prosperity in technology”. It fundamentally changed the current concept of whole-vehicle development based on a bearing-type body, splitting the chassis and body into two parts that can be independent and combined at the same time, making it possible for the overall outsourcing of the chassis hardware. Therefore, whole-vehicle manufacturers can focus their energy on advanced factors while the technology and quality of the chassis can be managed by suppliers.
For the skateboard chassis itself, how much road is there to truly replace the mature existing chassis structure based on the bearing-type body? First and foremost, and most crucially, it is the further development of wire control technology. All the application advantages that skateboard chassis can bring are based on its ability to separate the chassis and the body. The reason why the current cockpit and chassis are difficult to separate is that the instructions given by the driver still rely heavily on mechanical components to be transmitted and cannot be fully given to the chassis in the form of electronic signals. The existence of these mechanical components has become a bond that makes it difficult to separate the cockpit and chassis. At present, wire-controlled throttles and wire-controlled gear shifting are relatively mature, while the technology and market for wire-controlled brakes and wire-controlled steering are both rapidly developing. It can be inferred that when wire control for all systems is mature, the entire chassis will be packaged as a whole with only mechanical interfaces with the body and electronic signal interfaces with the cockpit remaining, making it fully feasible. Then, the “initial form” of the skateboard chassis, a wire-controlled chassis, will be formed. The next step is technology optimization and application scenario expansion.
Imagine that the entire chassis, integrating the battery, motor, transmission system, steering system, and braking system, which are things that end users cannot directly perceive, becomes a module like a computer motherboard. The automaker only needs to integrate personalized-designed interior and exterior decorations together with a series of soul software to the cockpit and assemble the cockpit and chassis. Then, a complete vehicle is produced. For vehicle development, this scenario is already attractive enough. Considering the further maturity of intelligent networking technology, a highly standardized skateboard chassis matched with a highly customized intelligent cockpit can allow cars to become mobile carriers of cinemas, cafes, and even promote a brand-new service industry that treats experiences as commodities and delivers them to your doorstep. Wow!
But how should traditional chassis technology, which has been developed through more than a hundred years of experience, face this new combination of emerging technologies? Looking back at industrial history, we should realize one thing: although new technologies may survive better, traditional technologies will not die. Only those companies that drown in the tide of change will die. The current traditional chassis technology, like the Sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of major traditional carmakers, is as sharp as it is dangerous. A host of emerging powers, whether they are making complete vehicles or parts, all dream of becoming the next Apple. Meanwhile, major traditional car companies are doing their utmost to figure out how to avoid becoming the next Nokia. A few days ago, a colleague of mine spent a few tens of yuan to buy an old-fashioned phone for the sole purpose of answering work calls. Having used smartphones for so long, they actually found these kinds of phones quite good, lightweight, durable, and cheap. This shows that Nokia’s technology and even its products themselves have survived to this day. Just due to changing supply and demand relationships, they need to shift shape to fit into new niche markets. And wasn’t the car, a product that overturned the industrial landscape, also a new thing when first born? In the era when cars first rose to prominence, the larger the horse farm and the more skilled the carriage workshop, the more difficult it was to withstand the impact of the automobile. Over a hundred years have passed, and horses have almost completely lost their function as a means of transportation, and have instead found value in equestrianism, horse racing, and the tourism industry.
In the future, the trend of intelligent driving cars is certain, and the maturity of skateboard chassis technology means that the skill of chassis tuning may shift from automakers to skateboard chassis suppliers, continuing to survive in the industry chain as a necessary but inexpensive factor. When people get used to conversing with AI and get used to intelligent chassis controlled by software, sitting back in a car with a purely mechanical chassis and feeling the actual touch between metal parts may become a luxury experience like equestrianism is now.# 这是一个Markdown标题
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This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.