Special Author | Zhu Yulong
Editor | Qiu Kaijun
Despite the easing of epidemic control, the sales of automobiles did not immediately rebound.
The insurance policy data for the second week of December (week 49 of 2022, from December 5th to December 11th) has been released. To sum up the industry situation in one sentence: As epidemic control measures are relaxed, all automakers are accelerating deliveries in December. However, from the situation in Beijing, we still need some time to deal with infections. Only when the epidemic in major cities reaches its peak and the infection rate exceeds a certain threshold, will our economy, including the automobile consumption market, slowly recover.
Therefore, we can boldly speculate that the actual consumption situation in December may be worse than the data shows. Starting from the third week of December, if there is no artificial adjustment of automotive terminal consumption data, there may be a significant gap between the data and our traditional judgment. In other words, the end-of-the-year sales push may not be as strong as imagined.
Overall data of passenger cars
1）Overall passenger cars
46.2 million vehicles were sold this week, a YoY increase of 7.7\% and a MoM increase of 19.3\%;
2）Overall profile of fuel vehicles
32.2 million vehicles were sold this week, a YoY decrease of 3.2\% and a MoM increase of 24.6\%;
3) New energy vehicles
14 million vehicles were sold this week, a YoY increase of 45.7\% and a MoM increase of 8.8\%.
There are three weeks left. The terminal cumulative sales of Chinese passenger cars so far this year are 4.723 million units. With the final sprint of 450,000-470,000 units, the terminal sales volume for this year will be between 5.17 million and 5.20 million units.
Main brands of new energy vehicles
# Weekly Update on Major Automobile Companies
This week, the top three car companies in terms of sales are BYD, Tesla, and Wuling.
1) BYD
Sales this week reached 44,817 units, with a YoY increase of 96.2% and a MoM increase of 11.3%. We are still waiting for that moment when terminal data spikes, and I estimate that it will be in the last two weeks of December.
2) Tesla
Sales this week reached 12,977 units, with a YoY increase of 1.3% and a MoM increase of 11%. Based on this trend, it is difficult to increase overall production capacity in December. Based on this data, Tesla’s sales in China in December will be around 60,000 units, the same as in November.
3) Wuling
Sales this week reached 9,497 units, with a YoY decrease of 15.7% and a MoM increase of 13.8%.
New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Brands
The situation of the top three emerging NEV companies that people are most interested in is as follows:
1) NIO: Sales this week reached 2,982 units, with a YoY increase of 27.9% and a MoM decrease of 5.1%;
2) XPENG: Sales this week reached 2,127 units, with a YoY decrease of 18.0% and a MoM increase of 8.4%;
3) Li Auto: Sales this week reached 3,013 units, with a YoY decrease of 3.0% and a MoM decrease of 28.7%.
NETA, which is in fourth place, has started to recover, but from the current situation, it is difficult for new brands to make a breakthrough.
Now let’s take a look at the performance of the top three NEV models:
1) NIO
NIO’s main models are the ET5 and ES7. Buy the ET5 for a sedan and the ES7 for an SUV.
Currently, the accumulated order pool of the ET7 has been almost delivered. In the long run, as electric vehicles become standard products, differentiation among powertrains, cabins, and automated driving assistance technologies will not be much. This requires a long-term approach. Otherwise, why should your car be sold at a higher price?
For NIO to break through, it needs to continue to work hard domestically while expanding sales to Europe and the world, constructing a path around products and brands that can integrate into local lifestyles.## Pure electric vehicles are surpassing BBA in the mid-to high-end market. NIO needs to continue its efforts to replace fuel vehicles with pure electric models.
2) Ideal Automotive
As the inventory delivery of L9 reaches its peak, I think that from a weekly perspective, sales will decline.
Now, the ideal sales model is L8, which replaces the previous positioning of One. With the delivery of the L7 sibling model, L8+L7 has become its own moat.
The hot sales of the L9 are truly a masterpiece of positioning, but constrained by the current consumption environment, I think that going down is a reflection of the current society’s consumption capacity. This has squeezed out all the existing market demand to form a popular model in the 400,000 RMB price range, but the sustainable volume that can be carried at this price is indeed limited.
3) XPeng Motors
In a process of upward brand movement, XPeng needs both quantity and a shift in the price center. For now, G9 can build good reputation in terms of product technology, but it is difficult to sell in large volumes. The management’s idea of achieving ideal success is limited. Surrounding the 800V fast-charging BEV, one issue is the cost and the other is that consumers do not experience how large and affordable this car is yet. The entire purchasing community is still a niche group of geeks.
XPeng’s main direction for the next step is to update P7 on the one hand to continue to improve cost-effectiveness and compete with Tesla, and on the other hand, to coordinate with G9 to produce G7, stop G3, and go into the mid-size SUV market to compete with Model Y.
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This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.