Author: Zhu Yulong

Recently, a German business delegation came to visit, which could be our turning point. The overall data for October in Europe is quite good, mainly because last year’s data was relatively low, and most countries are experiencing positive growth.

• Germany’s passenger car sales in October were 208,000, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%.
• France’s passenger car sales in October were 125,000, a year-on-year increase of 5.45%.
• Italy’s passenger car sales in October were 115,800, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%.
• The UK’s passenger car sales in October were 134,300, a year-on-year increase of 26%+.

The overall data for October is very good:

• Germany: 67,845 units
• Norway: 10,853 units
• Sweden: 13,299 units
• France: 27,974 units
• Italy: 9,811 units
• UK: 28,832 units
• Spain: 6,665 units

The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in October 2022 maintained its overall stability, and the penetration rate in October was relatively high.

Sales Situation in Major European Countries

Although the sales of cars in Europe have a relatively high increase in year-on-year data, the overall numbers are not high. If we put the sales from January to October together, this is the situation.

Looking at the market size and the past few quarters, monthly sales of electric vehicles have expanded to a certain extent in Germany. This is related to Germany being the largest automotive market in Europe, and there is a memory effect in the penetration rate.

Next, let’s take a look at the three main markets of France, Germany, and the UK separately.

France

The overall data of new energy vehicles in France is not very ideal, with 16,866 pure electric vehicles and 11,108 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The current penetration rates of BEV, PHEV, and HEV are 13.5%, 8.9%, and 23.1%, respectively.

Germany

Sales in Germany have reached a record high, with 35,781 electric vehicles and 32,064 plug-in hybrid vehicles. With the supply of chips, recently there has been a surge in hybrids, and the current penetration rates of BEV, PHEV, and HEV are 17.1%, 15.4%, and 17.4%, respectively.

As the UK’s new energy vehicle subsidy has been phased out, the sales of pure electric vehicles were 19,933 in October, and plug-in hybrids were 8,899, which is still a good result. Currently, the penetration rate of BEV is 14.8%, PHEV is 6.6%, and HEV is 31.4%.

Tesla’s performance in major countries

Let’s talk about Tesla’s performance in Europe, which people are more concerned about:

• Germany: 3,185 deliveries in October, and 41,643 this year

• UK: Single-digit deliveries in October, and 20,658 this year, all of which are Model Ys and estimated to be under 27,000.

• France: 1,790 deliveries in October, and 18,029 this year

• Norway: 51 deliveries in October, and 12,649 this year

• Netherlands: 13 deliveries in October, and 1,990 this year

• Spain: 68 deliveries in October, and 3,358 this year

• Sweden: 43 deliveries in October, and 5,119 this year

We can see that the Berlin factory is likely to be responsible for the volume of the German and French markets, and other cars need to be transported from Shanghai, which takes time. The production capacity of the Berlin factory is probably between 6,000 and 8,000, and 5,000+ have actually been delivered.

The overall performance of the French market in October was still acceptable, and it mainly depends on whether Q4 can make a comeback.

The production capacity of Tesla’s Berlin factory is still important. It indeed meets the demand in Germany, and the construction of such a factory in Germany also has great ZZ benefits.

Tesla has no significant deliveries in the UK, and it seems that all right-hand-drive cars were shipped from China.

Summary: Recently, I am still looking forward to the buffer relationship between China and Europe. We still need friends. From a geopolitical point of view, if China and Europe can handle their economic and trade relations well, it will be very meaningful for us. It is not about making money from Europe, but about having a mechanism for sustained communication and cooperation. Therefore, it is essential to keep track of the sales of cars in Europe and discuss making friends with the European car industry!

This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.