Author | Lingfang Wang
Editor | Shiyun Zhu
“In recent years, many people have regarded (NIO’s) battery swapping as a business and asked when this business will be upgraded (to become profitable). It’s like you ask a restaurant when their tissue paper (business) will become profitable. It’s a service.“
This is what NIO’s Co-founder and President, Li Hong Qin, said in an interview on July 6th, 2022 at NIO Power Day.
The message is clear; NIO Power does not need to be profitable on its own.
At this year’s NIO Power Day event, NIO updated their high-speed battery swapping network plan from five verticals and three horizontals to nine verticals and nine horizontals covering nineteen major urban clusters, and reiterated their plan to build 4,000 battery swapping stations by 2025.
In addition, Li Hong Qin also proposed a new goal that “Electricity District Houses” (residential or office places within 3 kilometers of the swapping stations) would cover more than 90% of the areas.
During the press conference, Li Hong Qin also revealed that they will soon release brand new electric charging facilities including liquid-cooled super-fast charging piles with a peak power of 500kW and a peak current of 650A, as well as third-generation battery swapping stations, and will open the 800V high-voltage platform battery pack and supporting battery swapping system to the entire industry.
However, regarding the media’s attention to the issue of battery asset turnover, Li Hong Qin frankly stated that he did not want to get into this topic.
“NIO’s unprofitability is not because of Battery Swapping”
Since the first day NIO launched its battery swapping service, there has been much skepticism about its massive deployment of energy supplementing facilities, with the focus on whether the service can generate profits.
Especially with the recent increase in battery costs, the profitability of the energy supplementing service seems even more uncertain.
However, in the interview, it can be seen that this is precisely what NIO is least concerned about.
Fei Shen, Vice President of NIO’s Automotive Energy, said that from 2018 to now, NIO’s battery swapping station has only had over 9,000 battery packs. Battery swapping stations are not very sensitive to battery prices because of the small scale.
In fact, according to the data displayed on the NIO’s battery swapping station backend as of July 6th, there were only 8961 battery packs in the swapping stations.
With such a small number of battery packs, there is no need to worry about the price issue.
Regarding the profitability of the battery swapping service, Li Hong Qin believes it is a false question. He thinks that the battery swapping service should not be viewed in isolation, and high-end brands need to provide better services. Instead, it’s more scientific to look at the overall profitability and development of NIO as a company. NIO is not currently profitable, and not because of battery swapping. Tesla didn’t do battery swapping, and it took them over a decade to become profitable. These two things must be mentally separated.# Qin Lihong emphasized that NIO’s advantage compared to other brands is their focus on energy supplementation. Just like China’s high-speed rail, which operates at a loss, but plays a critical role in China’s economic development.
Despite the high cost associated with such a large-scale energy supplementation layout, Qin Lihong is firmly committed to NIO’s energy supplementation system construction goal for 2025. Qin Lihong stated that NIO has an open system and hopes to have partners join in. With more people contributing, the results will be better. “Even if people don’t join us, we will do our best alone.”
Make “Charging More Convenient Than Refueling”
NIO is committed to making “charging more convenient than refueling” its corporate vision.
This is reflected in both quantity and quality.
In terms of quantity, NIO will continue to expand its energy supplementation network. As of now, NIO has built 1,011 charging stations nationwide, including 256 high-speed charging stations, connecting a network of high-speed charging stations in the five vertical and three horizontal city clusters. NIO has also built 31 charging routes under the “Power Up Plan,” providing charging services more than 10 million times.
By 2025, NIO plans to expand its high-speed charging network to the nine vertical and nine horizontal city clusters, and build more than 4,000 charging stations globally, including 1,000 overseas.
As of July 5th, NIO has installed 127,528 home charging piles for its users, with a coverage rate of 62.1% for the “electric zone,” and has provided one-click charging services more than 821,350 times.
By 2025, the coverage rate of the “electric zone” should reach over 90%.
In terms of quality, NIO aims to make charging more convenient for its users.
Therefore, they analyzed the user’s charging situation and divided it into four commonly used charging methods: home charging, battery swapping, one-click charging, and charging on the way. They define these as “convenient charging.”
According to NIO’s data, as of July 6, 2022, swapping accounted for 52.3% of NIO’s total charging volume, home charging accounted for 24.2%, one-click charging accounted for 0.9%, and charging on the way accounted for 11.4%.
NIO plans to develop its energy supplementation network based on the above situation.
In NIO’s opinion, home charging piles are currently the best charging method since the entire process takes less than one minute. Therefore, NIO encourages households that meet the conditions to install home charging piles.Regarding the experience of battery swapping, NIO is continuously improving. Qin Lihong stated that last year’s full battery swapping process of NIO took a little over 15 minutes, and this year they are targeting a time of 12 minutes or less.
“If NIO has thousands of battery swapping stations and hundreds of thousands or even millions of vehicles in use, we will still be able to complete the full battery swap process in under 10 minutes. Can gasoline-powered vehicles really still compete?”
“Charging and battery swapping are two different experiences”
Although battery swapping is quick, there is still a competitor that is fast charging.
Shen Fei believes that NIO’s implementation of ultra-fast charging is the easiest to deploy. “Just follow the deployment of the battery swapping stations. The capacity of those stations is basically 630kW or 1250kW.”
However, Shen Fei believes that charging and swapping are two different experiences.
Using himself as an example, Shen Fei shared two concepts. First, most users will charge until full, resulting in longer waiting times. Shen Fei has driven his ES8 for 130,000 kilometers and has only swapped batteries ten times. He has experienced more charging than swapping. He has found that among the people charging nearby, only a few are super rational and will leave once they reach 80%. The vast majority of people are willing to wait an additional 10 or 20 minutes.
This mindset is easy to understand, “It’s been hard to come here, and sometimes people have to wait for a long time.”
“The second concept is that an enterprise implementing ultra-fast charging must have an electric grid capacity that is greater than or equal to NIO’s current battery swapping stations.”
Shen Fei said, “I am keenly aware of how difficult it is to obtain capacity for each of these 1,000 battery swapping stations. In the future, ultra-fast charging will also face these challenges.”
There are also operational challenges. For example, when one person is charging at an ultra-fast charging station, they can use the full power of the station. But if two people are charging at the same time, the charging speed will drop significantly. “I have experienced it myself. Originally it was charging well at 250A, and when someone came to charge next to me, it immediately dropped to 60kW. There is a lot of uncertainty in this.”
Of course, “If all cars that can use ultra-fast charging are available, NIO is capable of quickly installing ultra-fast charging stations next to each or the vast majority of battery swapping stations to provide services.”
“If ultra-fast charging can really become universally competitive, we will definitely have the most advantages.” Shen Fei said.
“Multiple brand openness will not reduce user experience”
NIO hopes to have multiple brands of open and shared battery swapping stations throughout the industry, encouraging more users to use its battery swapping stations. However, will this harm the experience of existing NIO users?
Shen Fei believes that this needs to be analyzed dynamically. First, consider the number of vehicles that adopt NIO’s battery swapping stations. If the number of NIO vehicles is small, it will not affect existing users. However, if there is a sufficient amount, a radius of three kilometers with one battery swapping station could become ten or twenty swapping stations in the future.
NIO’s consistent approach is to provide a good user experience. “If other brands really join in, NIO will prioritize the experience of existing users. For example, if a new battery swapping station is added, everyone in the station will be equal.”In Shen Fei’s opinion, there are not so many risks in openness, but definitely greater returns.
Qin Lihong added that for NIO’s new brand, it is yet to be determined whether NIO’s existing battery swapping stations will be open to them or not. However, the new brand will definitely have its own battery swapping stations. According to NIO’s thinking, battery swapping stations are a part of the vehicle system. “It may be the other way around, where NIO’s car owners can go and use their battery swapping stations and energy storage.”
Qin Lihong also believes that openness is not as scary as one imagines. Using Audi and Volkswagen as an example, even though Volkswagen sells more cars, it has not surpassed Audi’s services. On the contrary, Audi’s services can be even better, which is a process of dynamic planning.
Although NIO is open-minded about battery swapping services, it is cautious about technology requirements. For example, in terms of battery swapping structure, whether to choose bolt or buckle, NIO insists on bolts and will not compromise.
Qin Lihong explained that the buckle structure is suitable for battery packs weighing less than 300 kg. Bolt structure is suitable for battery packs weighing above 500 kg. Bolt structure is undoubtedly more expensive and much more complicated. The reason why NIO does not choose buckle structure is that it is difficult for vehicles with buckle structure to pass the five-star collision safety standards.
“Therefore, if we are to be pulled from the bolt level to compete with buckle structure in cooperation, I definitely won’t agree,” said Qin Lihong.
It can be seen that NIO’s energy replenishment network construction is considered from the overall picture and serves car sales rather than individual profitability. In terms of technology, NIO also has its own persistence. Undeniably, for the downward new brand, the audience will be broader, and the challenge of constructing NIO’s energy replenishment network will be greater.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.