This article is reprinted from the autocarweekly official account
Author: Shu Shu
A few days ago, Tesla removed the data of Cybertruck electric pickup truck from its official website, including configuration parameters and price information. Even intended users cannot make orders.
This may be the least discussed news among Chinese netizens about Tesla. The reason may be that the pickup truck is far away from the lives of Chinese people, and regulations are also in place. For example, people cannot buy fuel-powered pickup trucks without hesitation. Not to mention an electric pickup truck with such a unique appearance.
However, this incident is actually worth discussing because the Cybertruck, which had its windows broken during the release conference, is so profitable. While we are all focusing on the Model series, its orders surpassed 1.25 million units in August this year.
What does this number mean? Taking the most familiar and best-selling Volkswagen as an example, Volkswagen sold a total of 2.85 million vehicles in China in 2020. However, this electric pickup truck from Tesla, which has not yet been mass-produced and only has conceptual parameters and basic price information, has already received orders almost equal to half a year’s sales of Volkswagen in China.
In terms of Tesla’s own sales, it sold about 500,000 vehicles worldwide last year. At present, the order volume of Cybertruck is already more than twice Tesla’s global annual sales.
The Cyberpunk fans have pushed the Cybertruck to the pinnacle effortlessly, creating the largest car order in human history to date.
Before being removed from the official website, Cybertruck had more than 1.25 million orders data as of August, and according to unofficial reservation tracking agencies, there are about 4,450 new reservations every day. Based on this order volume, combined with a deposit of $100 per vehicle (RMB 1,000 in China), its deposit has already brought Tesla more than $130 million in cash flow.
Thinking of a recent tweet by netizens saying that Tesla has paid off all the debts of the Shanghai Super Factory in the second quarter of 2021, and Musk himself going to say that Tesla must pay its debts, Cybertruck deposits played a big role in it.According to data from the owner forum of Cybertruck when the booking volume reaches 1,187,749 units, the proportion of single-motor models is 7.4%, dual-motor is 47.8%, and tri-motor is 44.8%. The proportion of vehicles equipped with FSD is 73.8%. Based on the starting prices of several models: $39,900 for the single-motor, $49,900 for the dual-motor, $69,900 for the tri-motor, and $10,000 for the FSD, the order value of Cybertruck has exceeded $100 billion.
As a car manufacturer, Tesla is a typical money-making machine that stands head and shoulders above its competitors. Its every move and gesture can infuriate other struggling car companies.
Since Cybertruck is so popular and its order value is so high, why was it suddenly taken off the market?
The first possibility might be that even a proud figure like Musk eventually succumbed to the Cyberpunk fans, who were passionate but demanding. Production problems, capacity problems, and a series of real-world factors in the epidemic made it impossible for Cybertruck to arrive on time, and continuing to increase the order volume was not beneficial for Tesla.
Speaking of the product issues, although Cybertruck was announced in 2019, and Musk said it would be launched at the end of 2021, this vehicle model was still in the development stage as the originally specified time grew closer.
For example, its pyramid-like shape, as if from a revelation of the future, has been modified in size and appearance by engineers in recent years. After all, it was impossible to make it without changes.
In a broadcast in February this year, Musk publicly admitted that Cybertruck was still undergoing minor modifications in terms of size, even though it looked almost identical to the one showcased at the Hawthorne design studio in November 2019. He added, “You know, we adjust the size by a few percent, about 3% or less.”
On August 9th of this year, SawyerMerritt, an insider of Tesla, tweeted that Tesla had only recently completed the design of Cybertruck. Adding to this, Musk previously proposed that Cybertruck should “float or even serve as a boat” in a short time. Excessive anticipation leads to greater difficulty. No wonder Musk said in July this year, “To be honest, there is always a possibility that Cybertruck will fail because it is different from anything else. I don’t care, I love it even if others don’t. Other trucks look like copies of the same thing, but Cybertruck looks like it was made by aliens from the future.”You see, whether cyberpunk can really enter reality, whether the electric pickup truck specially designed for extraterrestrial planets can be mass-produced, and even the space-capable Musk has spoken ambiguous words for the first time.
Regarding production capacity, Musk previously stated that a super factory covering 2,000 acres will be built near Austin, Travis County, Texas for the production of Cybertruck, but the Gigafactory super factory was indeed built, with an expected production capacity of around 2 million per year. However, this factory can only start small-scale production in the fourth quarter, and Model Y is also produced here.
Undoubtedly, Cybertruck products are still stuck, and the production capacity is even more difficult to handle. Therefore, all of Tesla’s resources are bound to focus on Model Y, which has huge demand and has already reached mature mass production.
Moreover, without this cyberpunk ideal pickup truck, Tesla expects global sales to exceed 2 million in 2022, a number that is already enough to keep all Tesla factories busy. With the addition of million-order volume, Musk will also think that it is too much to handle. Therefore, it is good for Tesla and Musk to put it on a break for now.
Finally, there is the issue of chip shortages and the production of Tesla 4680 batteries. Musk publicly stated that “the 4680 battery is an innovative product that requires dozens of major improvements”, implying that the battery development is very difficult. And this battery is also required for Cybertruck.
In summary, the bottom line is that when Musk set the mass production of Cybertruck at the end of 2021, it was an unfortunate time. It is indeed the best choice to temporarily remove it.
Alternatively, there is a second possibility that Musk is using the “strategic retreat” to stabilize the existing order volume of Cybertruck and then make a big wave to promote it in the future.
In fact, the order volume of Cybertruck is so high because of its order method of allowing a refundable deposit of $100 or ¥1,000. Musk himself should also know that under such an ordering method, there won’t be as many actual orders as expected. So why let everyone “enjoy” it for so long, and now they can’t continue?Imagine a revolutionary product that has been generating a huge buzz for over two years, but now, even the most loyal fans might start to doubt whether it will ever come to fruition. The promised interview date has been postponed for another year. If people start to question the product’s prospects, not only will Cybertruck lose its attention, but more importantly, it may face a large number of cancellations of existing orders. As previously mentioned, the amount of deposits made for Cybertruck orders is enormous, and a high number of cancellations is probably the last thing Musk wants to see.
Taking down the product from the market at this point would help preserve the value of existing orders for those who have already placed them. Besides, for people who have only paid a refundable deposit of $100 USD or RMB 1,000, it would be merely a curious and risk-free investment, and they might earn a lot of money if the product becomes unavailable for several years before mass production. Temporarily suspending the “Intend Order” feature would also encourage those interested but who have not yet placed an order to do so in the future when the feature becomes available again. Of course, the second possibility is a bit of a “Scumbag Steve” move and is purely speculative, but it couldn’t be ruled out completely.
Whether the suspension is for the purpose of preserving existing orders or stimulating new ones, what we know for sure is that Musk’s latest update on Cybertruck’s production is that it will start delivering in 2023, with orders officially open for sale in the U.S. in 2022. During this period, China may still be skeptical about electric pickup trucks, let alone this electric pickup truck with such unique styling features.
There are also voices suggesting that the delayed delivery of Cybertrucks will cause it to miss the best opportunity for deploying electric pickup trucks in the U.S. But honestly, who cares? In 2020, the total sales volume of pickup trucks in the U.S. was 2,934,706, and in the first half of this year, 1,515,036. Ford F-Series, Ram pickups, and Chevrolet Silverado have always been the top-selling models. There is nothing inherently wrong with these models, but with over 1.25 million Cybertruck orders, more than 75% of which are from the U.S., it is not necessary for it to have a perfect timing to enter the market. Rather, the U.S. pickup truck market needs it to break the current pattern and fuel a new wave of innovation.
Ah, how I envy Musk’s life, where he has enough money and dreams to keep many people passionate, even with the postponement of his projects. After all, I am also one of the quiet, unknown supporters who dare not proclaim a position too loudly.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.