Author: Wang Lingfang

“BYD’s super hybrid technology, I think should be the world’s first. In addition, the battery is still at the forefront of the world. But we still need to be cautious, especially with the existence of revolutionary, disruptive and innovative companies like Tesla.”

At the 11th high-end symposium of China Electric Vehicle Hundred-People Conference in 2021 on September 9th, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of China Electric Vehicle Hundred-People Conference, summarized the current technological development of China’s electric vehicles.

Ouyang believes that it is necessary to promote the mainstream, diversification, and integration of new energy passenger vehicles, while commercial vehicle power should develop diversification.

In addition, Ouyang also suggested that new force companies should not focus on plug-ins (technically, extending range is also a special type of plug-in), but rather focus on pure electric + intelligent route.

Regarding product, Ouyang predicted that A0-level products will erupt in the A00 product market.

To build a hydrogen-electric smart new energy system

According to the roadmap of new energy vehicles, by 2040, the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 300 million, and if each vehicle is equipped with an average of 65 kWh battery, all vehicle-mounted batteries can store 20 billion kWh, which is equivalent to the total daily power consumption in China.

Such a large amount of electricity can help grid peak shaving. However, this requires the promotion of V2G technology between vehicles and the grid.

Ouyang believes that this is similar to building a new energy “stock market”, attracting all new energy vehicle owners, as “individual investors” to buy and sell electricity, and to obtain profits through low buying and high selling. Ultimately, both new energy power and new energy electricity can be integrated into one, forming a hydrogen-electric smart new energy system.

At the same time, hydrogen energy should gradually replace coal in power plants.

In this way, the distributed power grid in the future can be balanced by batteries, while large-scale centralized power plants mainly increase hydrogen and hydrogen carriers such as ammonia as zero-carbon fuels. According to predictions, the proportion of coal-fired power generation will be reduced to about 6%-7% by 2060.

Of course, in the manufacturing field, new energy must also be used. Therefore, the battery manufacturing is currently being transferred to the west, with low overall cost, renewable energy as its source, further reducing energy consumption from the source, paving the way for the development of new energy vehicles.

Ouyang believes that referring to the process of cars replacing horse carriages, new energy vehicles can basically complete the replacement process by 2050, and the growth of new energy vehicles will enter the flat stage of the S-curve in the later period.

Technology: Integration of Passenger Vehicles; Diversification of Commercial Vehicles

In Ouyang’s view, compared with commercial vehicles, the technology of new energy passenger vehicles tends to be integrated.(1) Passenger cars: Plug-in configuration stabilizes, pure electric orientation integrated platform

There are mainly two types of new energy passenger cars, plug-in and pure electric. According to Ouyang Ming, “the configuration of plug-in hybrid does not need to be bothered anymore, it is a series-parallel hybrid configuration.”

As for pure electric, Ouyang Ming believes that the current core is the integration of a dedicated chassis platform and cannot be modified anymore. For example, BYD’s high-voltage chassis platform uses lithium iron phosphate blade batteries, and through advanced PACK technologies such as CTP and CTV, the range of medium-sized passenger cars can reach 800 kilometers or even higher.

However, the disadvantage is that the range is reduced in winter, and the battery weight is too heavy.

Therefore, high specific energy ternary batteries still have a great role to play in mid-to-high end passenger cars.

Ouyang Ming judges that the market share of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries in the future will be either 30:70 or 40:60.

In addition, another trend of pure electric vehicles is fast charging, slow charging, and vehicle-to-grid interaction (V2G). Ouyang Ming believes that fast charging should not emphasize full charging, because it is difficult to achieve super fast charging, complete full charging, safety, and long life at the same time. Therefore, the direction should be 200 kilometers in 5 minutes, and the higher difficulty can reach 400 kilometers in 10 minutes.

Ouyang Ming also believes that charging 80% in 15 minutes can also be achieved, but it requires improvement of the battery, such as the use of integrated electrode and membrane technology, which will bring trouble to battery recycling.

(2) Commercial vehicles tend to be more diversified in technology

Ouyang Ming believes that the trend of heavy trucks will be hybrid and fuel diversity.

In terms of internal combustion engines, the main fuels for heavy trucks are diesel and natural gas, but in the future, it may be more diversified, introducing carbon-neutral fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohol produced based on renewable energy. Ouyang Ming judges that the next five years may be the trial period for carbon-neutral fuels, and the next 5-10 years may be the demonstration promotion period, and it will take 10 years to achieve commercialization on a large scale.

In terms of electrification, Ouyang Ming believes that the direction of heavy trucks is battery swapping, and the business model is battery leasing. “The total consumption of batteries and electricity is equivalent to the fuel consumption of a diesel truck, and it can compete with diesel at 6 yuan/liter; and batteryless swapping trucks can currently compete with National VI emission diesel trucks.” Therefore, the battery swapping heavy truck currently has basically the business viability to compete with diesel trucks.

Another direction is hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks. Long-distance heavy-duty transportation with fuel cells will be the pioneer of hydrogen energy application, and its mission is to drive the large-scale hydrogen energy industry.

However, Ouyang Minghao believes that there are three areas that still need to be addressed for heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles. Firstly, the engine system needs to be optimized. Secondly, the reliability and durability of the fuel cell stack need to be improved to meet the 8-year usage requirement. This is similar to the situation with pure electric buses when they were first introduced, but their battery life quickly improved to guarantee 1 million kilometers. Thirdly, performance needs to be further improved, such as reducing the loss from polarization and decreasing the slope of the current-voltage curve, as well as developing a new generation of high-temperature proton exchange membranes suitable for heavy-duty applications.

In terms of market trends, pure electric passenger cars are occupying the middle ground between high-end and low-end vehicles while fuel and natural gas vehicles continue to dominate the commercial sector. For passenger cars, pure electric vehicles have distinct advantages over A00 fuel vehicles and are expected to occupy the A0 vehicle segment. Plug-in hybrid vehicles have a significant market niche in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan range, where customers demand long-range, high-performance, and low-cost vehicles. Ouyang also believes that pure electric vehicles have an advantage for luxury C and D class vehicles, with long range and fast acceleration.

For medium-sized cars, plug-in hybrids with long electric range may be the mainstream, such as BYD’s Super Hybrid, which originally had a range of 50-60 kilometers and has now extended to 120 kilometers with a low-cost energy-type battery. This type of plug-in hybrid vehicle that covers the average city driving range is expected to be popular in the market until 2035, and has the potential to replace traditional fuel vehicles.

In terms of commercial vehicles, diesel and natural gas trucks will continue to dominate the market until 2030 due to their mature technology. However, the development of battery-swapping heavy-duty trucks, a new blue ocean, is expected to grow rapidly and enter the commercial promotion phase.# Translation in English Markdown Text

The hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck needs technological upgrade, cost reduction, demonstration and promotion, and belongs to the stage of industrial cultivation. It also needs to rely on government’s support to promote. Under the unexpected development of pure electric vehicles, hydrogen-powered cars will face greater market pressures.

However, Ouyang Ming believes that the overall hydrogen situation is unprecedentedly good. “It is rumored that 2/3 of the central enterprises have intervened in hydrogen power. We need to use this political advantage to offset the market pressure of pure electric vehicles and seize the window of opportunity for the next 5 years or so to quickly improve commercial competitiveness.”

Recommendations for Enterprises

According to different characteristics of vehicle enterprises, Ouyang Ming provides suggestions.

For new car-making forces, Ouyang Ming expressly points out that he does not recommend making big efforts in plug-ins (technically, range extension is also a special type of plug-in), because the engine is a weak point of new car-making forces. It’s difficult for them to develop an engine with efficiency of 43% like BYD. Selecting an engine randomly from the market would not satisfy the requirements of fuel consumption and emissions. Therefore, he suggests that new forces should still take the pure electric and intelligent route.

For large-scale independent vehicle enterprises, Ouyang Ming thinks that pure electric and plug-in development should be developed in parallel, which is to learn from BYD.

For foreign-funded enterprises, Ouyang Ming believes that foreign enterprises have strong technical grasp, but the development cycle is too long, the reaction speed is too slow, the traditional inertia is too great, and the role change is difficult. “From the previous high position in the Chinese market to the current Chinese enterprises beginning to be on an equal footing, a mindset adjustment is needed.”

Ouyang Ming also pointed out that some foreign companies have excessive diversification in power technology. The lack of a main focus in technologies such as fuel cells, hydrogen internal combustion engines, hybrid power, plug-ins, and pure electricity for fast-changing Chinese markets poses a relatively high risk.

This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.