This announcement was made by Elon Musk on Twitter, which was followed by a lot of analysis and discussion. When the boss and Ayuan asked me, I tried to answer the logic behind it. The key questions are:
(1) Whether Tesla’s cars and charging network in China match, and whether the charging network provides enough service to its own car owners?
(2) If serving third parties, will they have to pay more or limit the charging current? For example, Super Charging V3 is based on the setting of 700A under 400V. Will the same standard of 400V+ 250A be provided to other car companies?
(3) If this measure takes effect this year, what is Tesla’s motivation and purpose? What impact does it have on other car companies?
Tesla’s charging poles in China
Let’s start by counting the number of cars. This can be seen through insurance data. At the end of 2017, Tesla had a total of 14,883 cars in the Chinese market. With the 2019 Model 3 entering China, sales were increased to 44,000. Since then, Tesla’s sales have been increasing. In 2020, Tesla’s sales in China reached 147,000, and in the first half of this year, sales reached 132,200. Therefore, Tesla’s total number of cars in China has reached 354,000.
According to Tesla’s statement, there are 6,700 supercharging stations in the Chinese market, while the charging alliance shows the number is 2,492. Therefore, there is a ratio of 2.68:1 between “poles” and “stations”.
According to the data from the charging alliance, Tesla’s application is based on 2,492 stations, with a total capacity of 310,000 kW and a single station power of 124 kW. If the number of stations is calculated based on the quantity of 2-in-1 or 3-in-1, it is calculated based on the “poles” for the users and the power can be shared, so there is such a gap. If the overall capacity is considered, 6,700 poles require 804,000 charging capacity at 120 kW, which is completely inconsistent.
Impact on other car companies in China?
The current total power limit of Tesla’s connection to the grid means that sharing the 2,492 charging piles (6,700 plugs) has a minimal impact on other car manufacturers. The 310,000 kW power for these charging stations are expected to serve 354,000 car owners. In some popular stations, the shortage of chargers and limited power output have become a problem, affecting the overall charging experience. Compared to Volkswagen’s 2,490 charging stations with 310,000 kW charging power, which is close to Tesla’s capacity, there is not much difference.
As for the question of whether the electricity flow will be limited, there are currently relatively few Super Charging V3 charging piles, and the overall fast-charging power output is limited by the total input power. Even if V4 is upgraded to increase the charging power to 300 kW or even 350 kW in the future, without more electricity capacity resources in China, it will be difficult for Tesla’s supercharging stations to meet the needs and expectations of their own customers. Inevitably, the electricity flow will have to be lowered, possibly to below 250A, or even 200A. Due to the total power limit, all charging stations’ output will be reduced accordingly.
From my understanding, the competition for fast-charging networks lies in securing the electricity capacity in popular areas. In the next phase, the key is to secure the second-line fast-charging capacity, such as 990,000 kW from Wanhorse and 730,000 kW from Car Charging Network, as well as a few others. In China, there is still a bottleneck in the construction of fast-charging infrastructure due to limited available electricity capacity, especially since the power grid infrastructure has not been updated extensively, and energy storage is not yet fully realized. Elon Musk’s ideas may have some significance for global users, especially in the U.S. and Europe, but in China, the national grid has the greatest potential for leading the fast-charging market. However, the national grid also knows that electricity capacity on the distribution aspect is precious, and cannot be fully allocated to electric vehicles.Summary: Recently, I had conversations with many friends in the automotive industry, and we all noticed that many owners of traditionally owned and fixed parking spots are switching to electric vehicles. In the next stage, electric vehicle owners may face the problem of not having the ability to install charging stations due to a lack of available electrical capacity in China. As a result, competition for electrical capacity has become fierce in China, and Tesla’s decision to enter the Chinese market is not only to ensure its own development, but also to show to various countries that its products are not just for Tesla owners alone. By demonstrating its value to the world, Tesla will be able to gain more support for acquiring additional land and electrical capacity, even if there are already many charging stations. This is an inevitable choice for Tesla.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.