Author: Li Yuanyuan from Dianguan
At the end of April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the Global EV Outlook 2021 report, which reviewed the world’s electric vehicle (EV) market in 2020 and predicted the trends until 2030.
In this report, published annually, the words most relevant to China were “dominate,” “lead,” “largest,” “most,” and so on.
For example:
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China is the country with the most EVs in the world.
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China has the most EV models.
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China dominates the global EV bus and EV heavy truck markets.
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China is the largest market for EV light commercial vehicles.
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China’s power battery production capacity accounts for over 70% of the world.
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China is leading the world in fast and slow charging infrastructure for EVs.
Following China, Europe is the next most promising region.
Although there is still a big gap between Europe and China in terms of the number of EVs, Europe surpassed China in 2020 to become the world’s largest EV consumer for that year.
IEA predicts that the number of EVs on the road worldwide will reach 145 million by 2030. China and Europe will continue to be the main markets for EVs globally.
China Leads in the Number of EVs; Europe Becomes the Champion in 2020
According to IEA statistics, the number of EVs worldwide exceeded 10 million by the end of 2020. Of these, 4.5 million were in China, 3.2 million were in Europe, 1.7 million were in the United States, and the rest were scattered among other countries and regions.
For many years, China has always been the world’s largest EV market, until it was surpassed by Europe for the first time in 2020.
That year, Europe had a total of 1.4 million new EV registrations, accounting for nearly half of the world’s EV sales. Furthermore, Europe’s new EV registrations market share had reached 10%, far exceeding that of other countries and regions.
(Data source: IEA)
Note: This is an English translation of the original Chinese text in Markdown format, and the HTML tags used in the original text have been retained.Except for passenger cars, electric commercial vehicles have also developed rapidly in recent years. As of the end of 2020, the global stock of electric buses and trucks reached 600,000 and 31,000, respectively.
As the market for electric cars expands, consumers and governments around the world are increasing their spending in this field.
Source: IEA, unit on the left: billions of U.S. dollars, light blue is consumer spending, dark blue is government spending, and green dots represent the proportion of government spending on electric car spending.
In 2020, global consumers spent $120 billion to buy electric cars, an increase of 50% compared to the previous year.
That year, governments around the world spent $14 billion on electric cars through subsidies and tax incentives, a 25% increase year-over-year. All countries that increased government spending were in Europe, while China’s government spending decreased due to subsidy reductions.
In terms of car types, there were approximately 370 models of electric cars on the market worldwide in 2020, a 40% increase compared to the previous year. Among them, China has the most models of electric cars, twice as many as Europe, and three times as many as the United States.
Source: IEA, the vertical axis represents the number of electric car models, light blue represents pure electric, and dark blue represents plug-in hybrids.
It can be seen that SUVs were the fastest-growing model in 2020, accounting for over 55% of electric cars along with pickups.
Electric Light Commercial Vehicles: China has the most
Currently, the global stock of electric light commercial vehicles is approximately 435,000, with China remaining its largest market, followed closely by Europe.
Source: IEA, light blue represents pure electric, and dark blue represents plug-in hybrids.
However, since 2019, China’s registration of electric light commercial vehicles has decreased for two consecutive years, while Europe’s registration has continued to rise. In 2020, Europe registered 37,000 electric light commercial vehicles, a 40% increase year-over-year, only 5% less than China.## Electric buses and trucks: China is the absolute leader
As of the end of 2020, the global stock of electric buses and trucks was 600,000 and 31,000 vehicles respectively, with the vast majority of these vehicles in China.
Source: IEA
In 2020, China had a total of 78,000 registered electric buses, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a market share of 27%. The number of electric buses registered in Europe and the United States that year was only 2,100 and 580 respectively.
In the electric truck market, China registered 6,700 new vehicles in 2020, an increase of 10% from the previous year. In contrast, Europe and the United States had only 450 and 240 electric truck sales respectively in the same year.
Power batteries: 70% produced in China
In 2020, the global production capacity of power batteries was approximately 160 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 33%. More than 70% of this production capacity comes from China.
China is also the world’s largest consumer of power batteries, with a demand of approximately 80 GWh in 2020, while Europe’s demand for power batteries was only 52 GWh, but its year-on-year growth rate was higher than China at 110%. The United States had a power battery demand of only 19 GWh in 2020.
Source: IEA
Currently, European-made power batteries cannot meet market demand, with an annual production capacity of only 35 GWh. However, according to plans, the production capacity of power batteries in Europe is expected to reach 400 GWh by 2025.
In addition, according to the IEA report, thanks to economies of scale, the price of power battery packs dropped to $137/kWh in 2020, a 13% decrease from 2019.
Charging poles: China leads in both fast and slow charging
China leads the world not only in electric vehicles themselves, but also in charging infrastructure.
Source: IEA
According to the IEA report, the number of public charging piles worldwide reached 1.3 million in 2020, an increase of 45% year-on-year, with 30% being fast charging piles. If it were not for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of charging piles should have increased more rapidly.
In terms of slow charging piles, China built 500,000 fast charging piles in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 65%. In the same year, Europe built 250,000 slow charging piles, an increase of about 33% year-on-year. The number of slow charging piles built in the United States in 2020 was only 82,000, with a year-on-year increase of 28%.
In terms of fast charging piles, China built 310,000 fast charging piles in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 44%. In the same period, Europe had 38,000 fast charging piles, a year-on-year increase of 55%. The United States built 17,000 fast charging piles, of which 60% were Tesla’s supercharging piles.
Prediction: 145 Million or 230 Million Electric Vehicles on the Road in 2030?
According to the IEA’s prediction, the global electric vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly from 2020.
Source: IEA
The IEA report divides into two scenarios: one is to predict based on the current development plan of electric vehicles in various countries, and the other is to implement stricter emission reduction and decarbonization measures on the existing plans.
In the first scenario, the IEA predicts that the number of electric vehicles on the road globally will reach 145 million by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 30%. In the second scenario, the number of electric vehicles on the road globally could reach 230 million by 2030, with an electric vehicle market share of 12%.
The IEA report pointed out that China and Europe are still the most important driving forces for the market to achieve the expected goals by 2030.
China has already set the goal of “striving to attain peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030” and “working hard to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.” According to the prediction of the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0,” new energy vehicle sales will account for about 40% of total sales by 2030. By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream, accounting for more than 50% of total sales.In Europe, on April 21, the EU agreed on a series of climate change mitigation objectives, including achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, and committed to making these targets legally binding. Actions from governments, such as car purchase subsidies and charging infrastructure development, as well as actions from businesses, such as new platform and new vehicle development, have accelerated.
In the United States, on March 31, President Biden delivered a speech in Pittsburgh, announcing that the US government plans to invest $174 billion over the next 8 years to reclaim the electric car market currently lagging behind China.
Although the global car market has been hit hard by the pandemic, the electric car market in 2020 continued to grow against the trend. With the joint efforts of governments and businesses in several major economies, the global electric vehicle market will continue to demonstrate strong vitality.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.