Introduction
Tesla released its Q1 delivery data today, with a total of 184,800 deliveries, of which Model 3 + Y accounted for the vast majority, reaching 182,780, and only 2,000 units of Model S&X were phased out. This data is very high.
I did some analysis based on EV Sales data and estimated that Tesla delivered over 100,000 vehicles in a single month, which is quite impressive. It’s understandable as the global price reduction of Model 3 has stimulated demand.
Q1 Sales Analysis Data
Tesla’s two largest markets currently are the United States and China, accounting for over 3/4 of all deliveries.
Given the current background, seasonal deliveries, especially in Europe, are affected by China’s production and shipping, resulting in concentrated deliveries in March in several European markets. Currently, the numbers are as follows:
1) Tesla’s cumulative deliveries in Europe in the first two months were 7,013 units, but with the seasonal impact, the expectation is to reach around 25,000 units.
2) Tesla delivered 34,500 vehicles in China in the first two months. Based on the situation in March, it’s estimated that Model Y exceeded 10,000 units and Model 3 reached 18,000 units, for a total of around 62,000 units using this ratio, which is roughly 1/3.
3) The situation in the United States will be counted separately later. According to data from companies such as SNE, the demand for monthly BEV data in the US is 30,000, which means a cumulative total of 60,000 in the first two months. Tesla’s deliveries were probably over 20,000 per month, and the doubling in March could potentially reach around 80,000 for the quarter.
4) Other Regions: The number of deliveries in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly in Korea, Japan, and Australia, has also increased to around 12,000.
Based on the following data:
In France, 4,524 vehicles were delivered in March and 6,477 vehicles were delivered in the quarter, almost catching up with the total deliveries in 2020.
In Norway, 2,169 vehicles were delivered in March and 2,566 were delivered in the quarter.
In Sweden, 1,357 vehicles were delivered in March and 1,554 were delivered in the quarter.
The numbers for March and the first two months in European regions are significantly higher.
Conclusion
The first quarter of this year has been very good compared to the same period last year, and I think there are many reasons for it, especially considering the particular circumstances of 2020.
In the middle of 2020, in order to resist the epidemic, various regions raised electric vehicles to a long-term status, took many measures, and the demand for electric vehicles was practically supported. In the past, Q1 was a low point in annual vehicle sales, but now Q1 has accumulated a lot of confidence in China, the US, and Europe. The current data is not sufficient, and we will carefully review it when European and Chinese data is available.
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.