On the morning of January 17th, 2021, the new energy vehicle market forum of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum was opened in Beijing. Gu Huinan, the general manager of Guangzhou Automobile E-Auto Co., Ltd., gave a speech and responded to the viewpoint raised by yesterday’s Ouyang Minggao that it is impossible to achieve both fast charging and a thousand kilometers of range.
Gu Huinan stated that when he stood on this podium last year, Guangzhou Automobile E-Auto Co., Ltd. was called Guangzhou Automobile New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., which was changed to the current name Guangzhou Automobile E-Auto Co., Ltd. in just two months. We also look forward to the independence of the Guangzhou Automobile E-Auto brand, hoping that this brand will move forward. According to the theme of the conference “Research on the New Market Pattern”, I will briefly introduce our experience in the field of new energy vehicles in recent years.
Firstly, let’s take a look at China’s latest strategy for new energy from 2021 to 2035. The strategy has been basically established. Passenger EVs are the main focus, while commercial FCVs are the main focus, and fuel vehicles will be mainly hybridized. Moreover, it is also clear that it is now EV+ICV, especially ICV. Intelligent network connection also has a plan. From my personal experience of the past few years, the introduction of this policy is very correct. Compared with the past few years, the technology route has been argued too much and wasted too much. The national subsidies are too scattered. I think that the introduction of this policy is very necessary for focusing on the future technology development roadmap.
Looking at last year’s market, Director Xu has done a lot of analysis, and there are detailed data inside. I would like to supplement that everyone knows about the “hot-heads” on both ends of the market, the high-end and the low-end. However, there is still another feature, that is, the micro-cars below A00. What do we find when we remove this number? We can see that the new energy vehicle market is declining. Failure to pay attention to this may cause misleading for policy makers. Despite this, last year’s market was still good. The incremental market for micro-cars is really growing. One is that in urban areas, some people originally had no plans to buy such vehicles. But they could spend tens of thousands of dollars to play with a car, no matter if they bought it or not, they also got a license plate. Another part really eats up some of the motorcycle market. Another part is what Director Xu mentioned, which eats up the market for low-speed electric vehicles. This information reflects a market change, and this part of the car does not depend on subsidy policies. The new energy vehicle market that survives in this way is likely to explode from low-end cars. If we assume that the government will no longer make subsidy policies, this may be a market.
In addition, last year had a market feature, “dual restrictions”, where the license plates for both cars and purchases were restricted in cities, and now this restriction has been lifted. However, the opening of this license plate was aimed at fuel vehicles. What impact does it have? With the hard-won fuel vehicle license plate, people will definitely go for high-end cars. The market for high-end fuel vehicles has boomed, especially in cities with restricted driving. Having a license plate to buy a car brings about this change. Would these two changes continue this year and in the future? This is not easy to judge.Therefore, we hope that when various cities in the country impose purchase restrictions, subsidies for new energy vehicles will be introduced, with subsidies ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan per vehicle for new energy vehicles, while a license plate for a fuel vehicle costs tens of thousands of yuan. With respect to policy continuity, relevant departments need to give consideration.
In addition, considering the five pain points of electric vehicles, namely, range, charging, cost, residual value, and safety, now mainstream electric vehicles have a range of over 600 kilometers, with ternary and lithium iron phosphate battery technologies coexisting, which was a good phenomenon last year. Otherwise, there would be a shortage of battery resources this year because it is a year of grabbing resources, and pricing has skyrocketed due to the new raw material route.
Furthermore, the convenience of charging has now become the biggest challenge, and if our country wants to solve the problem of difficult charging through the commercial model of new energy, it is not a long-term solution from the national policy perspective. To solve the problem of electricity, we only hope that commercial model innovations are not enough, and hope to consider them from a national perspective.
From our perspective, GAC AION believes that electrification is not our only core business, but rather EV+ICV. To make electric vehicles, we must also make intelligent connected vehicles. Why did our GAC AION sell more than 60,000 vehicles last year? We are all A-class to B-class cars, and even in the C-class region. Director Xu also mentioned that the A-class car market is not doing well, but in a bad market, Aion S is an A-class car, ranking among the top ten of all A-class cars, including fuel vehicles. I suggest that Director Xu should summarize this as a highlight, and the new energy vehicle that can enter the mainstream market could be the only one that has entered the top ten in all fuel vehicle markets.
I think our country should still quickly introduce policies above L3 level. If my car is on the road and I am caught on video saying that it is a violation, how can I promote it? In California, USA, you can drive anywhere, and I have a California automatic driving license, but not in China. It’s a problem even to get on the road, so I think our country should improve this as soon as possible. If the market develops rapidly, and the policies do not keep up, this is a problem that needs to be solved.
Furthermore, the production of the first truly 5G car only had 300 chips since the chips are globally monopolized, and there were no more after using them up. Huawei only had so much inventory. Nowadays, everyone is talking about EV+ICV, which is definitely a software-defined car. However, I think that in the past few years, our country has suffered from hardware deficits, and at the national level today, software-defined cars are still being promoted. But hardware cannot be solved by a single enterprise. Software may be solved by one enterprise, but hardware, from raw materials to design, to manufacturing, has such a long industry chain that a single enterprise cannot do it all. The country must think about software and hardware-defined cars, and hardware must be considered, otherwise, we will be chasing chips for many years to come.Furthermore, in my understanding, from EV to ICV, the development of EV will rise to the sustainable use of energy ecology. I believe that only addressing EV is not the ultimate solution, but the entire ecosystem must keep up. This year, energy ecology is our focus. In order to solve this problem, we have been developing batteries ourselves. Just now, the CEO of BAIC mentioned the incident with Ouyang Minggao. I believe people’s understanding was incorrect. We, as technology developers, shouldn’t blindly follow others’ opinions. I was there when Ouyang Minggao spoke. He wanted 1000 kilometers, fast charging, and affordability. It’s impossible to have all three. Everyone has forgotten about affordability. I want to tell you all that we will definitely achieve 1000 kilometers this year, and fast charging will definitely be available. He said 8 minutes to fully charge 1000 kilometers, which is theoretically possible if the battery can endure it for 8 minutes. Of course, we need to solve the charging station problem. However, with past technology, even if there were charging stations, batteries couldn’t withstand fast charging. This is a two-sided problem. Those in technology must understand: Does the technology work? Can it be popularized? Do not replace technology with popularization. This will lead to ignorance. Sometimes, online rumors are like this, which is unacceptable. We must scientifically treat technological progress.
In addition, with the application of 5G era and LiDAR technology, next year will definitely be the first year of LiDAR driving. I think it can definitely be applied. By 2025, autonomous driving will be widely applied.
Moreover, software upgrades will bring about innovative business models. This is what we just discussed: energy ecology and intelligent travel ecology. In the future, the innovation of business model ecology will also be the direction of Guangqi Ainan’s efforts. After Guangqi Ainan’s independence, we will also focus on the comprehensive innovation of marketing services and organizational culture around the research and development manufacturing industry chain, and hope to contribute to the development of our country’s automotive industry. Thank you all, and thank you!
This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.