When will electric vehicles become popular?

Editor’s note: This article is from Li Bo, member of the 42 community and currently employed by a domestic automaker.

If we put subsidies, license policies, and traffic restrictions aside, would you still consider buying an electric vehicle (EV)? Or even with these policies, would you still buy an EV for your next vehicle? I think for every new car buyer, or someone interested in EVs, there will be a big question mark in their minds.

So, what is the most important reason that limits the popularity of EVs? In my opinion, the fundamental reasons are: range anxiety, safety and stability of EV batteries, and the slightly higher price compared to cars in the same class.

Let’s analyze from the perspective of EV characteristics (excluding commonalities with gasoline cars):

Range anxiety: The range of an EV is determined by the capacity of the battery, weight of the car, and the speed and convenience of charging. The capacity and weight of an EV are mainly determined by the density of the battery (which also determines the stackability of the battery and the weight of the car), and the speed and convenience of charging are determined by the layout and efficiency of the charging facilities.
Safety and stability of EV batteries are determined by the design of the power battery system and the electronic control system.
The most important part that affects the price of an EV is the cost of the battery, which is currently around 150-200 USD per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in China. A 450km (calculation based on 100km per 16 degrees) EV requires about 72 kWh, which is approximately 10,800 USD or more.

We can combine the above aspects into the satisfaction of the “three-electrics” (power, control, and charging) and the layout of the charging network for an all-encompassing consideration.

Satisfaction of the “Three-Electrics”

What is the ideal state of the “three-electrics”? Based on industry conditions and demand trends, I will give my answer in the table below, along with the market status of Tesla.

Why are these specific figures (300Wh/kg, 100 USD/kWh, 2C or higher)? If the trend continues, Tesla will be able to reach the above ideal standard around 2019. What does this concept mean?To know that the cost of batteries accounts for about one-third of the total cost of the entire vehicle in various car companies (excluding Tesla), and the battery capacity is still far less than that of Tesla. For example, if the cost of a 75-degree electric vehicle battery can be directly reduced to around $7,500 (which is nearly equivalent to the cost of an engine and transmission), it can provide more resources to improve the interior and exterior design and other performance or reduce the overall vehicle price to make it more affordable and easier for consumers to purchase.

At the same time, a higher energy density is needed to accommodate more batteries, and electric vehicles can ensure lighter weight and achieve higher range, rather than increasing the battery capacity without limit after achieving higher range, leading to the situation where the car is not used to carry cargo, but is mainly used to carry the battery.

Charging rates of more than 2C are to ensure that you can charge the required amount of energy in a shorter time (such as during a rest of ten to twenty minutes at a high-speed service area), and continue your journey, rather than waiting in line at a charging station. (Further explanations on the charging network layout will be provided later).

Range (Battery Life)

What is the appropriate range for an electric vehicle? In fact, it is equivalent to how large the battery of a normal electric vehicle should be. Assuming an ideal scenario (rather than forcing the car owner to compromise due to realistic technological constraints), the range should be around 450km to 500km, and the battery should be around 75 degrees to 80 degrees.

Because we calculated based on a rest of about two hours (which is the normal physiological fatigue time in high-speed driving), which is about 230km (if we obey the law), and is calculated based on 18 degrees of electricity per hundred kilometers in a high-speed environment (around 15 degrees in urban areas). If we consider the efficient use of electricity in the 50% SOC range (20% to 70%) or the 60% SOC range (20% to 80%), high-speed charging above 80% will be much slower, and there is no need to wait; the mood when driving with a battery level below 20% is beyond description; and using the battery at too low or too high levels will have a significant impact on the battery cruising life. At the same time, considering the attenuation effect of winter cooling on batteries, especially in areas north of the Yangtze River, and even farther north (a decrease of 30% at minus 10 degrees), the total ideal electricity is about 75 degrees to 80 degrees, and the appropriate range is around 450km to 500km.

In fact, the balance between range (battery life) and charging network layout is the shortest board in achieving the popularization and affordability of electric vehicles. For daily short and medium journeys, it is not an issue. Long-range cruising can be used as a fallback for occasional or weekend medium to long trips. We can’t expect or tell electric vehicle users that they can enjoy the experience of driving an electric vehicle, as well as tax incentives and license preferential policies, but their charging time and range are limited. It is currently the technological reality, and as a second family car, it is pretty good.

If we always plan and design electric cars based on the standards of a second family car, electric cars will never thrive. The mission of electric cars is to gradually replace the vast majority of gasoline cars (except for remote areas and special uses). This is already a trend in the United States (Tesla Model 3’s single model sales have entered the top four in all US automobile sales rankings, even without sufficient capacity to deliver). Why should your electric car be special? You must first make users feel that your electric car is a normal car, running without anxiety.

Speaking of this, we have also heard many scholars and experts say recently that we cannot blindly pursue high battery life and high density for electric cars while ignoring the overall safety of electric cars. Of course, the experts and scholars are right. Cars are a big item in a household, and we usually use them for three to five years, or even ten years. The overall durability and safety stability requirements are very high, and battery modules are not a very safe thing without perfect system management.

But what I want to say is that we should think about how to improve our technical level to meet users’ needs and expectations, rather than thinking about suppressing users’ needs because our technology is not good enough. What we should see is the overall trend and market direction, and conduct systematic planning and layout from an overall perspective (of which the layout of the charging network is also one of the most important links). And we must see a reality, the domestication of Model 3 in 2020, which will bring the world’s best highly-integrated three-electric system, and it won’t wait for us!

Perhaps the only thing we can be lucky about is that it is mainly targeted at the high-end market and the configuration cost of the whole car is relatively high, and there is also likely to be some import tariffs (bonded port production) – in this regard, we need to praise a product – BYD Tang 600 (actually called Tang 80 is better), which has integrated the battery to 82.8 degrees domestically for the first time (because the battery cells are self-produced, and the pack management system is also self-produced), which has given us some hope. We are not weak!

Layout of Charging Piles

Let’s take a look at what a typical car should look like. It can not only meet our daily commuting needs (usually within 100 kilometers round trip per day), but also meet my occasional or weekend medium and long-distance travel, and I will not have fuel anxiety (if you insist on saying the western region, we can’t chat properly).

So what is the electric consumption situation for an electric car?

Charging at home after returning from work at night can meet the normal travel needs of the next day, and home charging is also the most convenient and cheap solution. If conditions permit at work, it is even better to charge the car (usually for commercial use).

If the car is about to run out of power outside, you can always find a fast charging station nearby, which is basically the time to go shopping, eat hot pot with friends, or watch a movie. When we return, it is an energetic car.Occasional long-distance trips on highways require us to take a break at rest stops after driving for about two hours. During this time, we can also plug our car into a fast charging station for 10-20 minutes, which will allow us to drive with confidence and without worrying about how much electricity we have left or whether we will run out of power on the highway.

Therefore, based on the above travel scenarios, the layout of charging facilities should revolve around: daily low-power home charging stations + city-wide distribution of high-power destination public charging stations + high-power charging stations on national highways and main arteries.

Low-power charging stations for home use are cheap and convenient, and can satisfy daily commuting demands. (Based on calculations for Beijing, the cost is only CNY 0.47 per kWh with no tiered pricing or peak/off-peak requirements, which is lower than the lowest-priced home charging option. For a distance of 300km per month, the cost is around CNY 21.) These charging stations offer a power output of approximately 7kW, which can achieve a full charge of 70 kWh overnight.
City-wide distribution of high-power destination public charging stations is convenient for charging your car when you are away from home and need a quick charge. These charging stations can meet one day’s driving needs in less than 2 hours, with power outputs ranging from 15kW to 60kW, as well as some stations offering high power outputs of 120kW or more to support emergency rapid charging.
High-power charging stations on national highways and main arteries are essential for long-distance travel, allowing people to travel with confidence and without worrying about charging. With power outputs of 80kW, 120kW or higher (up to 240kW or 300kW), these charging stations can quickly provide approximately 250km of driving range (40-45 kWh) within 10-20 minutes, making it as convenient and fast as refueling a gas-powered vehicle.

Of course, there is also the option of carrying a portable vehicle charger for occasional charging needs.

Among all these charging facilities, the most important aspect is the nationwide deployment of high-power charging stations and unified charging standards.

Currently, most major cities in China have charging stations from various companies, and unified charging standards have been implemented in recent years. However, the actual operational situation is that charging facilities are often faulty, charging interface standards are inconsistent, or charging spots are often occupied. This seriously restricts the national unity of electric energy development.

Additionally, there is also an issue with the transparency of networked charging facilities throughout the country. As the layout of electric vehicles and charging facilities continue to expand, if the issue of public charging stations cannot be resolved, it will undoubtedly affect people’s convenience in urban travel, especially for the large number of car owners without a fixed parking space (according to a 2018 Chinese study by Autohome, around 65% of car owners in first-tier cities do not have a fixed parking space).## On the Layout of High-Power Charging Stations for National Highways and Main Roads

The layout of high-power charging stations on national highways and main roads is one of the most critical aspects of the development of electric vehicles, and precisely one of the core foundations of Tesla’s success in the United States. A core charging network, allowing drivers the freedom to travel anywhere with the knowledge that they will always have timely access to a charging station, is the foundation of the success of electric vehicles. Without this, electric vehicles risk becoming vehicles that dare not leave the city, which would shatter users’ expectations of the automobile and constitute one of the main reasons why users are not buying electric vehicles.

For effective charging stations, a layout featuring high-power charging stations that have a power capacity of over 80 kW, 120 kW capacity and even a maximum of 240 kW, 300 kW will need to be installed along national highways and main roadways. In this way, electric vehicles can be charged quickly, sometimes in as little as 20 minutes, and obtain around 200 kilometers of driving range. Stations will be established every 100 km to 150 km, although there is the need for further calculation regarding the exact distance. Only in this way, can electric vehicles truly become as convenient and efficient as vehicles powered by traditional fuel.

In order to achieve this, the entire automotive industry, as well as national and government-related departments, road control authorities, the State Grid Corporation, various provincial highways companies, and other related industries need to collaborate with each other. Only in this way can we achieve our national strategy for new energy and foster the flourishing development of electric vehicles.

Returning to our question: When will electric vehicles become popular? My expectation is that by 2022 or 2023, with the domestic production of the Model 3 in 2020 and the rapid advancement of battery technology within one or two years, alongside the establishment of charging networks, destination networks and home networks to keep pace, we will be able to produce solid-state batteries, thus ushering in the era of electric vehicles. (Electric grids, stay strong!)