As someone who has been silently following Zhidou, I have mixed feelings about the recent news of Zhidou’s CEO, Yi Shuai.
Zhidou has made significant contributions to the promotion and popularization of electric vehicles in China, and Baowenguang, who led Zhidou through ups and downs, can be considered a pioneer and respected predecessor in the new energy vehicle industry. The journey that Baowenguang led Zhidou on is a true exemplar of blood, sweat, and tears, which fully illustrates the difficulties involved in the transition from old to new and the challenges of entrepreneurship.
I was fortunate to have the opportunity to interview Baowenguang once for three hours. Although I had initially prepared ten questions, I ended up not asking most of them because I spent the entire time listening to Baowenguang talking about his visions for electric intelligent vehicles and the future society.
This interview was very enlightening for me, not only providing insights into the four modernizations of the automotive industry, but also deepening my understanding of a fundamental issue: any technology has the potential to continue to develop, as long as it can attract enough capital, talent, and various resources in this technological “wasteland”–and there is no single direction or choice for any technological route; any direction has the potential to break through and meet human needs.
Yes, there is no infinite truth, and human understanding of the truth and pursuit of science have been evolving, never claiming to have reached the ultimate goal.
Below is a transcript of an interview I wrote half a year ago, highlighting Baowenguang’s brainstorming and sentiment as an “electric car fanatic”.
My definition of Baowenguang is an idealist under the technological determinism.
- The four modernizations of the automotive industry–electrification, networking, intelligence, and sharing–are actually necessary prerequisites to enter the next step. When Baowenguang started to make electric cars in 2006, he had already realized this and used this viewpoint to guide Zhidou’s vehicle strategy.
The first step is to achieve vehicle electrification. In this regard, Zhidou had already determined to arrange the chassis around the battery center. Around 2008, before the Model S was released and when many car companies were trying to convert oil into electricity for new energy, Baowenguang had the courage to develop a genuine pure electric platform. Regarding battery technology, Baowenguang believes that OEM only needs to do a good job on the PACK, no matter how the battery material technology route changes.
I asked Baowenguang how he views the currently booming solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cell, which is called the ultimate route. He said that the debate over the solid-state and liquid-state battery technology routes occurred in the 1960s-1970s, and the industry at that time chose liquid-state batteries, which were considered more suited to practical needs at the time. Now, as the density of liquid-state batteries, especially ternary lithium batteries, gradually approaches the upper limit, they are exploring solid-state batteries again. This fully illustrates that there is no fixed technology or ultimate solution for a technology route.When discussing the prospects of hydrogen fuel cell technology, we acknowledge potential challenges such as Japan’s technology embargo and the development of infrastructure in China. Therefore, we believe that the hydrogen fuel cell route is unlikely to become the mainstream option.
However, there has been an update – Toyota recently released more than 5,000 hydrogen fuel cell technology patents. This is a positive signal since hydrogen fuel cells are the means to achieve pollution-free, safe, and convenient transportation with the biggest hurdle being infrastructure.
2. The next step of electrification is networking.
Networking refers to the integration of vehicles with the internet, not only connecting the car with passengers but also connecting cars with each other, infrastructure, and the surrounding environment.
This undoubtedly reminds people of the future of 5G society.
If vehicles can fully share information with the surrounding environment, the concept of the “Internet of Everything” is not far away. The current vehicle networking is still limited to communicating with AI assistants in the car or performing basic tasks such as playing music or making phone calls. Advanced systems, such as Zebra’s, can remotely update part of the vehicle’s applications through OTA, while Tesla’s advanced OTA can update the entire control system.
True networking means that not only should every part of the vehicle’s hardware be digitized, but also the status of the entire vehicle (such as various driving/riding conditions) in all environmental situations should be digitized and the data transmitted and stored efficiently. This is the precondition for intelligence and the foundation for autonomous driving.
Therefore, autonomous driving is not just a thing for the automotive industry, but a matter for the whole society.
However, automotive networking is not the end point.
When talking about human-machine interaction, Professor Bowen Guo pointed out that people’s usage experience and demands of cars will fundamentally change. People’s main desire and interest in cars will shift from the traditional mechanical pleasures to the pleasure derived from intelligent integration.
To elaborate, as a product of the industry for hundreds of years, in addition to bringing convenience and possibilities for mobility and material exchanges to human beings, the traditional role of cars also provided the rush of adrenaline. The tactile sensations of controlling a traditional car are well-matched with human desires, especially male hormonal cravings for speed and control. These sensations, such as a strong push-back feeling or a clear and accurate road feel, serve as a form of crude human-vehicle/machine interaction.
However, when we talk about human-machine interaction in the usual sense nowadays, it mostly refers to the efficient and rapid collection of human commands by the system installed on the car and making appropriate and timely responses. In other words, no matter what dialect the “car assistant” speaks or what is required of it, it understands the command and responds promptly.
When we talk about intelligent cars, we mean vehicles that can smartly interpret human desires and execute the command given. This is the most profound layer of networking and also the stage of intelligence.3. Intelligence is the inevitable development of automobiles after the realization of networking.
According to a simple model of information theory, the next step after collecting information naturally is to analyze and make decisions based on the information, and then execute these decisions. After fully collecting information both inside and outside of the car (including other cars, devices, road conditions, etc.), intelligent cars need to analyze the information, make decisions on how to proceed, and then execute these decisions.
4. After the arrival of the era of autonomous driving, the era of car sharing is inevitable.
This is because the relationship between people and cars has changed, and people’s understanding and needs of cars have also undergone profound changes. When all data inside and outside the car can be interconnected and social transportation becomes intelligent, traffic congestion and accidents can be greatly reduced, and various travel demands of people can be properly allocated and fulfilled via the intelligent transportation system. Therefore, private consumption of cars will be greatly reduced. The trend of sharing cars has also been popular for some time, and according to optimistic predictions by Baowenguang, the era of car sharing will become a reality in 2040.
When talking about this paragraph, Baowenguang appeared very excited. The future that seemed unbelievable to me seemed to be right in front of his eyes. He described an ideal society where vehicles are greatly reduced, travel is convenient and safe, and less cars and parking spaces leave more space for other human activities…
Here one can imagine that in the future society of comprehensive autonomous driving, the two most expensive commodities – cars and houses – will show completely different value logics due to changes in human mobile lifestyles. Sharing cars can meet more diverse time and space demands, and owning a car is no longer necessary. In addition, the interior space of the car will play an important role. Coupled with a vast amount of vacant parking space, both public and private spaces will have new definitions, and this should bring about the emergence of a different societal culture of consumption.
This is also an important reason why I refer to Baowenguang as an idealist under the technical determinism.
Technical determinists believe that social changes should be adapted to technological developments, and technological development is free. Their basic logic is that changes in tool technology will change users’ behavior and thus influence social culture, economic development, etc.
For example, smart hardware can bring about changes in lifestyle, while food delivery apps such as Eleme can change one’s daily routine…
Anyway, let’s get back to the topic of the future of cars.
Here, Baowenguang and I discussed the grand theme of “the future of cars”.
Because, the future of shared cars doesn’t seem to be a very good blueprint for current automakers, after all, they are all selling cars.Baowenguang believes that the trend of history is irreversible, and all car manufacturers will find it difficult to avoid this reality in the future. They are like burning phoenixes, becoming process products for the ultimate goal.
One can only say that this pattern is ultimate enough.
At that moment, I felt that it was inappropriate to define Baowenguang as an entrepreneur.
He is more like an idealist standing in the future.
- How to face consumer demands? Create instead of following.
This question was raised by me. I mentioned in my article on Zhidou that it is said that Zhidou’s product planning is all determined by Baowenguang, and they do not hire research companies to do various research and analyses. Regarding this issue, I wanted to ask Baowenguang in person for verification.
Baowenguang did not directly answer my question, but shared a case study. In the early days of making electric bicycles, Baowenguang and his team designed and produced a product with very good cost performance. A 60-kilometer endurance bicycle sold for about 800 yuan, with the highest market share. A competing enterprise benchmarked this product and launched a 120-kilometer endurance bicycle for 1,200 yuan. Before launching this product, the enterprise also conducted market research, and customers surveyed responded positively to the upcoming product’s endurance and performance. However, after the product was actually launched, the feedback was not ideal.
Because consumers realized that they could not use the extra ten or so kilometers of endurance when purchasing, and they were unwilling to bear the additional cost.
This example is meant to illustrate two points. First, consumers’ real needs are based on a comprehensive judgment of rationality and sensibility. Second, the data brought by consumer research has great limitations.
Zhidou’s product definition also follows this line of thinking. Precisely understanding consumers’ real needs, accurately defining consumer costs, everything is just right. I have analyzed before that Zhidou’s competitors have longer endurance, although not much more expensive, but consumers are not willing to pay for those extra miles. This is because consumers of micro-cars are extremely price-sensitive.
Baowenguang believes that instead of following consumers, it is better to guide them, only in this way can you lead the market and competitors.
This perspective can be seen on the Knowledgeable D3. The D3 is equipped with WeChat, which can achieve some office application functions, and the dual-screen design has been mass-produced. Many conceptual cars of many brands with similar configurations may take 1-2 years to go into production, which is likely to be the result of the imitation game.
I asked him, how did you define the configuration of these products? How did you anticipate future consumer needs? He laughed and said, I boasted to my team that I dreamt it all up.
Bao Wenguang said that the task of Knowledgeable is to lead people’s demand for cars, and the transition from mechanical sensibility to intelligent sensibility. In his description, I saw the shadow of many cutting-edge technologies. For example, he mentioned the use of new flexible materials in car interiors, which can meet practical needs, as well as safety and aesthetics. He also mentioned body sensation technology (forgive me for not knowing the professional term, but it is the ability of the car body to perceive human movements and make feedback)…
Here, I shared with Bao Wenguang some of my personal feelings. I think that in the future, cars will become mobile spaces, and everything that must be done in the space, such as work and communication, will be solved by artificial intelligence, and everything else will be “emotional” events, such as social activities, or other spiritual and cultural entertainments. By then, the most important characteristic of the car space will be to provide suitable social and entertainment functions and atmosphere for the people in the car, because the ethical and emotional relationship between people is something that artificial intelligence cannot replace.
To achieve this future vision, smooth human-computer interaction and intelligence are indispensable, and to be precise, intelligence is also unavoidable.
As for consumer demand, there is also a question about Knowledgeable’s charging problem. This is a question I previously made, because Knowledgeable does not do fast charging, and consumers generally complain about it. The deeper proposition of this issue is, is fast charging really a necessity?
In Bao Wenguang’s view, it definitely is not. He believes that electric vehicles have made their battery life very long, equivalent to carrying dry food while running.
What does that mean? Think about it the other way around. If there are replenishment stations along the way, would you carry dry food for a long run? No.
In Bao Wenguang’s vision of the future society, induction charging technology will be extensively used in transportation infrastructure, with induction charging circuits buried below the road surface, so that cars can charge while driving, and there will be no mileage anxiety or charging anxiety.
Regarding the fact that Knowledgeable has not been doing fast charging, Bao Wenguang explained that fast charging has too much impact on the power grid and causes greater damage to the batteries.
But the reality is that most brands are doing fast charging. Bao Wenguang said that Knowledgeable is also doing it, and the next model will have a fast charging port. However, he also said that he does not encourage consumers to use fast charging.In Bao Wenguang’s view, the most real and essential need of consumers in terms of battery life is actually that the car can run, and long battery life or fast charging itself is not what consumers are pursuing. After the popularization of wireless charging, battery density or charging station density has become a pseudo-proposition.
As for the argument that fast charging technology impacts the safety of the power grid, I personally think it is not comprehensive enough. After all, if the infrastructure can support that kind of large-scale induction charging, why can’t it be upgraded to support large-scale fast charging one day? However, the negative impact of fast charging on battery performance does exist.
Bao Wenguang’s understanding of consumer demands undoubtedly points directly to the essence.
To excavate the most profound and simple motives and desires behind consumers’ demands for products and fundamentally satisfy this kind of desire is the true king’s way of product design. Of course, many demands cannot be satisfied immediately, so we have to take some transitional routes, such as charging stations plus long endurance batteries being an alternative solution when wireless charging is not yet popular on a large scale.
- Blockchain and technology oasis
We also talked about blockchain, which was an unexpected gain for this trip.
Before this, I had also been thinking about what kind of changes blockchain technology would bring to the automotive industry, but I had never figured it out. The direction I had been thinking about was the direction of automotive data+finance, which of course had some obvious possibilities, but none that were so ultimate.
Bao Wenguang described to me the future scene of cars. When people sit in the car and want to buy something, they can simply click in the car, reach a point-to-point payment immediately, and the purchased goods will also be automatically delivered to them.
I was excited at that time. Isn’t this financial and exchange freedom?
Cars + blockchain can achieve complete material movement and exchange, with the car realizing the exchange at the physical distance level, and blockchain finance realizing the exchange at the value level.
In addition, during the conversation, Bao Wenguang repeatedly mentioned the concept of technology oasis. If a technology can attract more resources to invest in it and attract more talents from different industries to study it, then it will form a technology oasis, which will bring more investment and talents, and faster development, constantly producing new breakthroughs.
This view is a typical one for the exponential growth of informationization. It is equivalent to saying that a product is evolving, and the equipment and tools that produce this product are also constantly being optimized and evolved, so this dual evolution will trigger the exponential growth of the product’s production technology.
Based on this view, that seemingly distant future may not be as far away from us as we think. In the field of information technology, this phenomenon is described by Moore’s Law.The three-hour conversation was filled with creativity and sparks. The development of information technology is an inevitable process for the direction of society. Before the ultimate realization of a smart society, human society still has a long way to go. Fortunately, our industry is an important milestone in witnessing this social development process. Baowenguang has a strong technological determinism tendency and idealistic color. The main point of technological determinism is that the change of technical tools brings about the progress of productivity and leads to changes in production relations, which is the main driving force of social development.
After hours of chatting, I asked the final question, “If you were given another chance, would you still choose to go into the new energy vehicle industry?”
The answer was definitely yes.
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This article is a translation by ChatGPT of a Chinese report from 42HOW. If you have any questions about it, please email bd@42how.com.